Hi,

I’m a Dynare starter, I would like to do a stochastic simulation (Taylor rule). I created the file with .mod extension and I set the path as mentionned in the guide. I defined the exogeneous and endogeneous variables, the parameters, the value of the parameters, the model. I wonder how to use the option initval (which kind of value have I put) and what I have to do in order to lunch a first temptation. Thanks

initval takes starting values for the steady state search. Analytical steady state values are best. If not available, use economic theory as a guide. Output is larger than consumption is larger than investment. All three are positive. Moreover, labor usually is around 1/3 and the real interest rate about 4%. Avoid the most common problem: using no value and thus 0 as the starting value for variables that can never turn negative (like consumption).

Thank you for the response. Well, I tried to do that. My new script (where the program was written) was saved as .mod file. When I try to lunch **run file.mod**, it indicate this error

??? Undefined variable “file” or class “file.mod”.

Error in ==> run at 74

evalin(‘caller’,[script ‘;’]);

However, when I try to lunch **dynare file.mod** it show this message

Configuring Dynare …

[mex] Generalized QZ.

[mex] Sylvester equation solution.

[mex] Kronecker products.

[mex] Sparse kronecker products.

[mex] Local state space iteration (second order).

[mex] Bytecode evaluation.

[mex] k-order perturbation solver.

[mex] k-order solution simulation.

[mex] Quasi Monte-Carlo sequence (Sobol).

[mex] Markov Switching SBVAR.

Starting Dynare (version 4.3.2).

Starting preprocessing of the model file …

ERROR: file.mod:13.10: character unrecognized by lexer

??? Error using ==> dynare at 114

DYNARE: preprocessing failed

Any help???

The second command is the correct one. The message says

It means that there is a problem in line 13 at character 10. You may want to post the mod-file.

Thank you very much jpfeifer

well, to expose the whole problem, my aim is to simulate monetary rule (similarly to Taylor one). In particular, I would like to find the two parameters: alpha (weight of the output gap) and beta (weight of the inflation). I have a model with two equations (demand and supply equation) +the monetary rules and I would like to reproduce shocks from this model and get the optimal parameters (alpha and beta) that minimize a loss function. I have written the program below in my script and I have run the file.mod but it didn’t work.

i would be gratreful If you have any idea or suggestion.

regards

**The program**

var y, pi, tc, br, oil;

varexo ey, epi, etc, eoil;

parameters a, b1, b2, c, d1, d2, e1, e2, f, g, h, alpha, beta;

a=0.64;

b1=0.67;

b2=-0.74;

c=0.23;

d1=0.55;

d2=0.3;

e1=-0.29;

e2=-0.32;

f=0.03;

g=0.07;

h=0.18;

alpha=0.5;

beta=0.5;

model;

y=a*y(-1)+b1*pi(-1)+b2*pi(-2)+c*br(-1)+ey;

pi=d1*pi(-1)+d2*pi(-2)+e1*y(-1)+e2*y(-2)+f*oil(-1)+g*br(-1)+epi;

tc=h*tc(-1);
br=alpha*y+beta

*pi;*

end;

initval;

y=1;

pi=1;

tc=1;

br=1;

oil=1;

end;

steady;

E(L)=sigmaE(pi)^2+teta E(y)^2

end;

initval;

y=1;

pi=1;

tc=1;

br=1;

oil=1;

end;

steady;

**The loss function**E(L)=sigma

I finally succeded on turning the model and get the steady state values. But, when I tried to lunch the shocks simulations, this message appear

??? Error using ==> stochastic_solvers at 160

2nd and 3rd order approximation not implemented for purely backward models

Error in ==> resol at 118

[dr,info] = stochastic_solvers(dr,check_flag,M,options,oo);

Error in ==> stoch_simul at 76

[oo_.dr,info,M_,options_,oo_] = resol(0,M_,options_,oo_);

Error in ==> file at 221

info = stoch_simul(var_list_);

Error in ==> dynare at 120

evalin(‘base’,fname) ;

Any help?

Set order=1. But why does your model not feature any forward-looking variables, i.e. something with expectation/timing (+1)?

Thank you for the response

How do U mean by "set order=1? does it mean fixing lag=1?

for the inexistence of forward loooking variables, my model look like an ARDL model, so, I haven’t this kind of variables. I guess that I can do simulation even if there is an absence of forward looking variables.

It means, use

See the manual.

Thank you,

In doing that, It mention that Blanchard Kahn conditions are not satisfied: no stable equilibrium. This is the complete message.

PS: It’s the first time that I use Dynare, so, excuse my naivety

??? Error using ==> print_info at 40

Blanchard Kahn conditions are not satisfied: no stable equilibrium

Error in ==> stoch_simul at 81

print_info(info, options_.noprint);

Error in ==> file at 186

info = stoch_simul(var_list_);

Error in ==> dynare at 120

evalin(‘base’,fname) ;

The Blanchard-Kahn conditions are an important condition for the existence and uniqueness of linear rational expectations models. Your model simply has no finite solution. See that 1980 Blanchard-Kahn Econometrica article.

Thank you,

I was encouraged to introduce forwardlooking variables and it works. But, I have two remarks:

1/before introducing shocks, I have used the option resid after the definition of initial values ((initval) and I’ve got these values. The problem is the following: as well as I modify the initial values, the residuals changes, so, I don’t know how to choose the right values of the shocks.

2/after introducing shocks (in an arbitrary way), I notice that the final value of parameters simulated (alpha and beta) dosen’t change when I change the weight defined in the loss function (optim_weights option). However, alpha and beta change when I change manually these same parameters (alpha and beta) introduced as part of the “osr_params” option. Is it normal?

Tanks