Dear all:

I’m doing Bayesian estimation, having

estimate_newway.mod (7.6 KB)

data2.xlsx (16.7 KB)

some problems

After I run the mod file, the likelihood turns out to be -18939095987714.35, it’s a weird result

And there is a warning:

POSTERIOR KERNEL OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM!

(minus) the hessian matrix at the “mode” is not positive definite!

=> posterior variance of the estimated parameters are not positive.

You should try to change the initial values of the parameters using

the estimated_params_init block, or use another optimization routine.

警告: The results below are most likely wrong!

位置：dynare_estimation_1 (第 315 行)

位置: dynare_estimation (第 105 行)

位置: estimate_newway.driver (第 620 行)

位置: dynare (第 293 行)

Finally I don’t get the parameters’ posterior distributions.

Can someone help me with it? Thanks a lot!