Dear Colleague

After running the simulation, I attempt to use the Bayesian Method for it and then Problem came out like this

initial_estimation_checks:: The forecast error variance in the multivariate Kalman filter became singular.

initial_estimation_checks:: This is often a sign of stochastic singularity, but can also sometimes happen by chance

initial_estimation_checks:: for a particular combination of parameters and data realizations.

initial_estimation_checks:: If you think the latter is the case, you should try with different initial values for the estimated parameters.

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: There was an error in computing the likelihood for initial parameter values.

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: If this is not a problem with the setting of options (check the error message below),

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: you should try using the calibrated version of the model as starting values. To do

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: this, add an empty estimated_params_init-block with use_calibration option immediately before the estimation

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: command (and after the estimated_params-block so that it does not get overwritten):

I also try to change the initial value as well as the data but the same thing happened and I do not know how to solve this.

I greatly appreciate who can help me overvome this issue.

Thanks

data.m (4.7 KB)

NK_SOE_Bayes_Nash3.mod (16.4 KB)