Posterior distribution

Hi everyone,

I am getting very narrow posterior distributions (90% interval <0.0001) and the trace plots seem to move only around the starting points.

Why am I getting this problem and how can I fix it?

jolee (397 KB)

Your MCMC did not correctly sample from the posterior, potentially because the MCMC jumping covariance or mh_jscale were too small. Did the mode-finding work? How was the acceptance rate?

Yes, jscale is small (0.011666) and acceptance rates are 32.66% and 32.74%.

Mode finding is not working at all and most of the likelihood functions are linear. Is that the matter of my data?

Thank you so much for your help.

It is hard to say. Please recheck your model and the observation equations and try different mode finders. You also might want to try the MCMC_jumping_covariance option.