Dear all,

My bayesian estimation went wrong. When I used Dynare to run my mod file, there were some bad results:

Error in computing likelihood for initial parameter values

Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -Inf

# ==========================================================

Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 9.9995.

Change in the posterior mean = 0.040833.

Current mode = 44.3099

Mode improvement = Inf

New value of jscale = 9.9854e-06

# ==========================================================

Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 0.00062842.

Change in the posterior mean = 0.040833.

Current mode = Inf

Mode improvement = Inf

New value of jscale = 0

# ==========================================================

Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 3.1419e-08.

Change in the posterior mean = 0.

Current mode = Inf

Mode improvement = NaN

New value of jscale = 0

Optimal value of the scale parameter = 0

Final value of minus the log posterior (or likelihood):Inf

MODE CHECK

Fval obtained by the optimization routine: Inf

And the mode check plots:

How can I solve this problem?

newsbayes.m (1.5 KB)

newsbayes.mod (3.9 KB)

obs.xlsx (15.5 KB)