See Remark 2 (Using stoch_simul before Estimation) and
Remark 4 (Parameter dependence and the use of model-local variables)
in Pfeifer(2013): “A Guide to Specifying Observation Equations for the Estimation of DSGE Models”
The current problem comes from that you define
sigma_alpha=(sigma/((1-alpha)+alpha*omega));
omega=(sigma*gamma+(1-alpha)*(sigma*eta-1));
But sigma has not been set and omega is used in the definition of sigma_alpha, but it is only defined thereafter. It should be
[code]// the description of the estimated equations
/*
IS curve
y=y(+1)-g(+1)+g+alpha*(omega-1)(rho_yf-1)yf-(1/sigma_alpha)(r-pi(+1));
where
sigma_alpha=(sigma/((1-alpha)+alphaomega));
omega=(sigmagamma+(1-alpha)(sigmaeta-1));
and yf and a are AR(1)
yf=rho_yfyf(-1)+e_yf;
a=rho_a*a(-1)+e_a;
Phillips curve
pi=lbpi(-1)+lfpi(+1)+kmc+e_pi;
where
lb=csi/(theta+csi(1-theta*(1-beta)));
lf=betatheta/(theta+csi(1-theta*(1-beta)));
k=(1-betatheta)(1-theta)(1-csi)/(theta+csi(1-theta*(1-beta)));
mc=((sigma_alpha+fi)(y-yn)-sigma_alphag+tau);
yn=((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)*a-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)*yf);
//mc=(((sigma/((1-alpha)+alphaomega))+fi)(y-((1+fi)/((sigma/((1-alpha)+alphaomega))+fi)a-(sigma-(sigma/((1-alpha)+alphaomega)))/((sigma/((1-alpha)+alphaomega))+fi)yf))-(sigma/((1-alpha)+alphaomega))*g+tau);
The fiscal constraint
b(+1)=r+(1/beta)(b-pi+(1-beta)(tau-y)+C/B*(g-tau));
The monetary policy rule
r= rho_r*(r(-1)-rn(-1))+(1-rho_r)(r_pipi+r_y*(y-yn))+rn+e_r;
where
rn=sigma_alpha*(yn(+1)-yn)+sigma_alphaalpha(omega-1)(rho_yf-1)yf;
or expressed in terms of only “a” and “yf”
rn=(sigma_alpha(1+fi)(rho_a-1)/(sigma_alpha+fi)a+fialpha*(omega-1)/(sigma_alpha+fi)*(rho_yf-1)*yf);
The fiscal policy rules
g=rho_gg(-1)+(1-rho_g)(g_y*(y(-1)-yn(-1))+g_bb)+e_g;
tau=rho_tautau(-1)+(1-rho_tau)(tau_y(y(-1)-yn(-1))+tau_b*b)+e_tau;
*/
///////////////
var y pi b r g tau yf a;
varexo e_yf e_a e_pi e_r e_g e_tau;
parameters beta eta gamma alpha C B csi theta sigma fi rho_yf rho_a rho_g rho_tau g_y g_b tau_y tau_b rho_r r_pi r_y;
beta=0.99;
eta=1;
gamma=1;
alpha=0.4;
C=0.7;
B=0.3;
fi=2;
sigma=3;
r_pi=1.5;
rho_r=0.5;
rho_g=0.5;
rho_a=0.8;
rho_yf=0.8;
theta=0.5;
r_y=0.4;
g_y=0;
rho_tau=0.5;
tau_y=0;
g_b=-0.03;
tau_b=0.03;
csi=0.7;
model(linear);
#omega=(sigmagamma+(1-alpha)(sigmaeta-1));
#sigma_alpha=(sigma/((1-alpha)+alphaomega));
y=y(+1)-g(+1)+g+alpha*(omega-1)*(rho_yf-1)yf-(1/sigma_alpha)(r-pi(+1));
yf=rho_yf*yf(-1)+e_yf;
a=rho_a*a(-1)+e_a;
pi=csi/(theta+csi*(1-theta*(1-beta)))pi(-1)+betatheta/(theta+csi*(1-theta*(1-beta)))pi(+1)+(1-betatheta)(1-theta)(1-csi)/(theta+csi*(1-theta*(1-beta)))((sigma_alpha+fi)(y-((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)*a-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)yf))-sigma_alphag+tau)+e_pi;
b(+1)=r+(1/beta)(b-pi+(1-beta)(tau-y)+C/B*(g-tau));
r= rho_r*(r(-1)-(sigma_alpha*(1+fi)(rho_a-1)/(sigma_alpha+fi)a(-1)+fialpha(omega-1)/(sigma_alpha+fi)(rho_yf-1)yf(-1)))+(1-rho_r)(r_pipi+r_y*(y-((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)a-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)yf)))+(sigma_alpha(1+fi)(rho_a-1)/(sigma_alpha+fi)a+fialpha*(omega-1)/(sigma_alpha+fi)*(rho_yf-1)*yf)+e_r;
/r= rho_r(r(-1)-(sigma_alpha*(((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)a-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)yf)-((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)a(-1)-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)yf(-1)))+sigma_alphaalpha(omega-1)(rho_yf-1)yf(-1)))+(1-rho_r)(r_pipi+r_y*(y-((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)*a-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)yf)))+(sigma_alpha(((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)*a(+1)-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)yf(+1))-((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)a-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)yf))+sigma_alphaalpha(omega-1)(rho_yf-1)*yf)+e_r; */
g=rho_gg(-1)+(1-rho_g)(g_y*(y(-1)-((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)*a(-1)-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)yf(-1)))+g_bb)+e_g;
tau=rho_tautau(-1)+(1-rho_tau)(tau_y*(y(-1)-((1+fi)/(sigma_alpha+fi)*a(-1)-(sigma-sigma_alpha)/(sigma_alpha+fi)yf(-1)))+tau_bb)+e_tau;
end;
steady;
estimated_params;
theta, beta_pdf,0.5,0.1;
fi, normal_pdf,2.0,0.5;
sigma, normal_pdf,3.0,0.75;
rho_r, beta_pdf, 0.5,0.2;
r_pi, gamma_pdf,1.5,0.5;
r_y, gamma_pdf,0.4,0.2;
rho_g, beta_pdf,0.5,0.15;
g_y, normal_pdf, 0,0.05;
rho_tau, beta_pdf,0.5,0.15;
tau_y, normal_pdf,0,0.05;
g_b, normal_pdf,-0.03,0.02;
tau_b, normal_pdf, 0.03,0.01;
csi, beta_pdf,0.7,0.1;
rho_a, beta_pdf,0.8,0.1;
rho_yf,beta_pdf,0.8,0.1;
stderr e_a, inv_gamma_pdf,1.0,4.0;
stderr e_pi, inv_gamma_pdf,0.6,4.0;
stderr e_yf, inv_gamma_pdf,5.0,4.0;
stderr e_r, inv_gamma_pdf,0.4,4.0;
stderr e_g, inv_gamma_pdf,2.0,4.0;
stderr e_tau, inv_gamma_pdf,1.0,4.0;
end;
varobs pi r y g tau;
estimation(datafile=dat,xls_sheet=Sheet1,xls_range=A1:e61,mh_replic=350000,mh_jscale=0.3,mh_nblocks=5,mh_drop=0.5,smoother,filtered_vars,conf_sig=0.95,mode_compute=6) b;
[/code]