I’m studying Bayesian estimation using simulated fake data, but I cannot understand the result below. All of the parameters except for cALPHA1 are estimated properly, but true cALPHA1 is 0.1 and its graph has different properties. [スクリーンショット 2020-12-14 19.15.02] I have two questions related to t…

You did not yet compute oo_.posterior, only the mode. Thus, you cannot look at it yet. The narrow range comes from Dynare plotting a neighborhood around the detected mode. If you run into a bound on one side, e.g. due to prior_trunc that typically results in the narrow x-range. That is why I have b…

Thank you very much! Your comments are very helpful! With respect to 2., 3, I guess I understood what was happening in my default prior_trunc. Now, my question is whether the narrow x-axis implies the range dynare managed to compute is just it(in the case of the picture2, a very narrow range aroun…

Thank you for your very helpful reply. Now, I’m estimating with simulated 1000 periods fake data for a model. I set cALPHA2 as 0.1 when it is generated, and I set prior distribution for estimation as uniform distribution from -0.2 to 0.9. However, I had a Mode check plots below. [スクリーンショット 2020-…

Thanks to your very helpful advices, after I increased the number of data, I managed to clear the problem! ( I obtained a fine mode check plot!) Thank you !

Dear, professor.I performed normal Bayesian estimation, and the distribution of estimated parameters also referred to mainstream literature, but I still encountered red dot errors when estimating parameters. I don’t know what’s wrong with the model. please help me~ bayes.mod (12.0 KB) [tz]

Please provide all files necessary to run estimation. There is not data-file.

Already in your calibrated model version, Dynare’s model_diagnostics warns about a singularity issue.

How can I solve this problem. I did not find error about the model. Do you mean that my steady-state solution is wrong, but if I don’t calibrate the parameters with the red dots, the model will work

I am saying that something in your model is most probably wrong given the continued warnings about singularity.

Mode check plots and mode

Estimation

jpfeifer 28 September 2023 06:51 19

See

Occasional problems in the parameter space are often not an issue. But you should investigate.