How to solve this problem:"Estimation::marginal density: There's probably a problem with the modified harmonic mean estimator"

Dear all, When I use this code to get 90% HPD interval , this problem happened. I am unsure of how to resolve this problem and would appreciate any assistance!
The code I use:
estimation(mode_compute=6,
prior_trunc=0,graph_format=pdf, plot_priors=0,datafile=datathirteen, xls_sheet=Sheet1, xls_range=A1:CB126, first_obs=1,presample=15,
prefilter=0, bayesian_irf, irf=40,
mh_replic = 100000, mh_nblocks = 10,
mh_jscale=0.20,
mh_drop=0.2,
lik_init=2,
nodisplay,
mode_check
);

Estimation::marginal density: I’m computing the posterior mean and covariance… Done!
Estimation::marginal density: I’m computing the posterior log marginal density (modified harmonic mean)…
Estimation::marginal density: The support of the weighting density function is not large enough…
Estimation::marginal density: I increase the variance of this distribution.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again.

Estimation::marginal density: There’s probably a problem with the modified harmonic mean estimator.

mayfft.log (342.5 KB)

Without the files it is impossible to tell. But just looking at the initial likelihood suggests a bigger underlying issue.

My hunch is that your observation equation is wrong. Compare the data mean with the steady states for the observables and you will see that they don’t match.

Thank you, Professor. I’ll check my data and change the observation equations.