Forecasting with dynare

Stochastic simulations
1

Hallo all

I do the 1,2,3, and 4 step-ahead forecast horizons by using the forecast command inside the estimation block

estimation( forecast=4) data_pid data_wp data_i;

but then dynare report up to 5-step-ahead forecast horizons. Why is that? I am using dynare 4.4

2

In Dynare 4.4 the initial condition was also stored. This is a known bug. Please upgrade to Dynare 4.5

3

Dear @jpfeifer

I see, the initial condition is the starting point of forecast. Is this right?

Because I found that this value is exactly the same as the last observation of actuall data

4

Yes, it is the last observation

5

Dear @jpfeifer

I got it, thank you so much for that