Forecast of endogenous variables given past and future exogenous shocks

Dear All and Professor

Thanks always for your help.

TNT_Big_May20.mod (33.0 KB)
TNT_Big_May20_steadystate.m (8.2 KB)

  1. Above is my model which include “Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy”

  2. With data from 2004Q1 ~ 2019Q3, I estimated parameters and shocks in the economy.

  3. Now, I want to see, how would inflation, exchange rate(which are variables I used in estimation) would have changed if there were no Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy but everything else is same.

  4. So, I want to use all the values of exogenous variables I estimated before and see how would inflation and exchange rate move without Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy (but other part of the model is same)

  5. I wonder, by making calibrated model without Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy, and using estimated parameter before, Is there any way I could make counterfactual data of endogenous variables using exogenous variables I estimated before…

  6. I meant counterfactual data as In reality there is foreign exchange Intervention policy, but I want to see if there were no such policy, how would Inflation and exchange rate would have changed.

Thanks in advance.

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