Good afternoon,
I am posting this inquiry because I encountered an issue while estimating parameters using Dynare. I used the following estimation options:
estimation(datafile=ctwdata,
bayesian_irf, irf=20,
conf_sig=0.95,
smoother,
filtered_vars,
forecast=8,
mh_jscale=0.25,
mode_compute=6,
presample=4,
prior_trunc=0,
mh_replic=400000,
mh_drop=200000,
mh_nblocks=3,
lik_init=2)
After setting these options and executing the estimation, I received the following message:
Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -2387.446472.
Estimation::mcmc: Multiple chains mode.
Estimation::mcmc: Searching for initial values...
Estimation::mcmc: Initial values found!
Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok!
Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in CTW/metropolis/CTW_mh_history_0.mat
Estimation::mcmc: Number of mh files: 3 per block.
Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated files: 9.
Estimation::mcmc: Total number of iterations: 400000.
Estimation::mcmc: Current acceptance ratio per chain:
Chain 1: 9.845%
Chain 2: 11.2043%
Chain 3: 16.704%
Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws per chain: 400000.
Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 3.
Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 486400 to 3.
Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 486400 I'll start at line 10875.
Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep -79999600000 draws per chain.
Then, during subsequent operations, I encountered the following error:
An error occurred during the following operation: reshape
The elements of the size vector must not be negative.
Error in mcmc_diagnostics (line 83)
Draws = reshape(Draws, [NumberOfDraws nblck]);
Error in dynare_estimation_1 (line 465)
oo_ = mcmc_diagnostics(options_, estim_params_, M_, oo_);
Error in dynare_estimation (line 105)
dynare_estimation_1(var_list, dname);
Error in CTW.driver (line 4351)
oo_recursive_ = dynare_estimation(var_list_);
Error in dynare (line 308)
evalin('base', [fname '.driver']);
I have 200,000 draws to keep, but the log indicates “Finally I keep -79999600000 draws per chain.” Could someone please explain why the estimation attempts to store a negative number of draws? It seems that storing a negative number of draws is causing the error. How can this issue be resolved?
For context, I did not encounter any problems when I set mh_replic=20000 for testing. However, after slightly modifying the prior distributions and setting mh_replic=400000 (since the paper I referenced used 400000–200000 draws), the issue occurred. Could this change be related to the problem?
I am attaching my code here. By the way, this model is so huge that it takes more than one and half hour even if I made only 20000 draws.
my code:
CTW.zip (34.2 KB)
Thank you very much for your time and for always providing high-quality responses. I appreciate any guidance you can offer.
Very Respectfully,
