Good morning, please, we are trying to forecast the unemployment rate. We are following page 137 in the Dynare pdf manual and are getting an error message when using either basic_plan or flip_plan.
The following is the code for variable U, the rate of unemployment:
var U, U_BAR, U_HAT ;
varexo E_U_HAT, E_U_BAR ;
parameters alphaa ;
alphaa = 0.8 ;
model ;
U_HAT = alphaa * U_HAT(-1) + E_U_HAT ;
U_BAR = U_BAR(-1) + E_U_BAR ;
U = U_HAT + U_BAR ;
end;
shocks;
var E_U_HAT ; stderr 2 ;
var E_U_BAR ; stderr 0.6 ;
end;
unit_root_vars U, U_BAR ;
steady;
check;
varobs U ;
calib_smoother(datafile=IN_AUX) ;
smoothed = dseries('IN_AUX.csv');
Uplan = init_plan(2023Q3:2029Q4);
// Uplan = basic_plan(Uplan, 'E_U_HAT', 'perfect_foresight', 2023Q3:2023Q4, [15 15]); %Var exo
Uplan = flip_plan(Uplan, 'U', 'E_U_HAT', 'surprise', 2023Q3:2024Q3, [10 10.1 10.2 10.1]); %var endo y exo
U_forecast = det_cond_forecast(Uplan, smoothed);
The following is the error message we are getting either using basic_plan or flip_plan:
Error using det_cond_forecast
impossible case
Error in UForecast.driver (line 157)
U_forecast = det_cond_forecast(Uplan, smoothed);
Error in dynare (line 278)
evalin(‘base’,[fname ‘.driver’]);