Conditional_forecast_paths; number of constrained variables

Stochastic simulations
1

Dear Dynare developers,
I want to compute the forecast for 3 variables in my estimated model. This model features 162 endogenous variables and 11 exogenous shocks. After the estimation command I write:
conditional_forecast_paths;
var Yobs;
periods 1:8;
values 0.04;
var PIEobs;
periods 1:8;
values 0.4226;
var PBYobs;
periods 1:8;
values 1.3690;
end;
conditional_forecast(parameter_set=posterior_mean, controlled_varexo= (epsm, epsa, epsmu, epsp, epsphi, epsg, epstau, epsw,
epsb,epsc_ME, epspby_ME), replic = 1000);
But I get the error message:
" Error using imcforecast (line 222)
imcforecast:: The number of constrained variables doesn’t match the number of controlled shocks".
How can I solve it?
Thanks in advance for your help.
Ste

2

Dynare does not allow you to find the “most likely combination of shocks”, rather it does model inversion. You need to have exactly as many controlled_varexo as variables you want to control.

3

Thanks a lot for your clarification. It works perfectly!
Best,
Ste