Conditional forecast paths in a vector

Stochastic simulations
1

Dear all,

I’m trying to set the values of the conditional forecast paths from a vector (which is stored in an Excel file). Could it be done?

Example. Instead of using:
var y;
periods 1, 2, 3, 4;
values 0.8, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2;

var y;
periods 1, 2, 3, 4;
values my_vector;

Thanks in advance!

2

No, unfortunately that is not feasible. To achieve something like this, you would need to set constrained_paths_ manually.

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3

Thanks Johannes!
Best regards,

4

Is this still the case? I mean, the “conditional_forecast_paths” documentation states that “The syntax of the block is the same as for the deterministic shocks in the shocks blocks”. However if you follow the example from the same documentation, and adapted below, we get the error:

Unable to perform assignment because the size of the left side is 1-by-1 and the size of the right side is 3-by-1.

Error in conditional_forecast_e.driver (line 996) constrained_paths_(1,1)=xx;

Error in dynare (line 308) evalin(‘base’,[fname ‘.driver’]);

The example:

xx = [1.2; 1.3; 1];

%shocks
conditional_forecast_paths;
var e;
periods 1:3;
values (xx);
end;
5

Can you provide me with the code you are using?

6

Certainly. Here is the code. Calling conditional_forecast.mod throws the error.
Scripts.zip (1.8 KB)

7

I can confirm that this is a bug: Fix treatment of input vectors in conditional_forecast_paths (#1949) · Issues · Dynare / dynare · GitLab

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8

The bug will be fixed in Dynare 6.3.

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