For the prior distribution I just follow the literature use Gamma and Beta distribution and set the lower and upper bound to be 0.0000001 and 0.999999. Do you mean I should use a different kind of distribution or different upper or lower bound values?
After several rounds of posterior estimation Dynare just stops, for example:
==========================================================
Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 4.
Change in the posterior mean = 8.9999.
Mode improvement = 167582702.3443
New value of jscale = 7.3019e-05
==========================================================
==========================================================
Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 0.00021355.
Change in the posterior mean = 8.9999.
Mode improvement = 167580397.4905
New value of jscale = 1.3039e-14
==========================================================
Error using chol
Matrix must be positive definite.
Error in gmhmaxlik_core (line 194)
dd = transpose(chol(CovJump));
Error in gmhmaxlik (line 100)
[PostMode, PostVariance, Scale, PostMean] = gmhmaxlik_core(fun, OldPostMode,
bounds, gmhmaxlikOptions, Scale, flag, MeanPar, OldPostVariance, varargin{:});
Error in dynare_minimize_objective (line 254)
[opt_par_values, hessian_mat, Scale, fval] = gmhmaxlik(objective_function,
start_par_value, ...
Error in dynare_estimation_1 (line 220)
[xparam1, fval, exitflag, hh, options_, Scale, new_rat_hess_info] =
dynare_minimize_objective(objective_function,xparam1,options_.mode_compute,options_,[bounds.lb
bounds.ub],bayestopt_.name,bayestopt_,hh,dataset_,dataset_info,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,bounds,oo_);
Error in dynare_estimation (line 105)
dynare_estimation_1(var_list,dname);
Error in simple8 (line 615)
oo_recursive_=dynare_estimation(var_list_);
Error in dynare (line 235)
evalin('base',fname) ;
Warning: A value of class "matlab.internal.video.PluginManager" was indexed with no subscripts
specified. Currently the result of this operation is the indexed value itself, but in a future
release, it will be an error.
> In matlab.internal.VideoReader/createChannel (line 495)
In matlab.internal.VideoReader (line 192)
In VideoReader/init (line 598)
In VideoReader (line 171)
In finfo>getVideoInfo (line 205)
In finfo>openAsMultimediaFile (line 194)
In finfo (line 79)
In open (line 115)
In uiopen (line 175)
When I use mode_compute=9, I often get the warning:
Warning: Non-finite fitness range
> In cmaes (line 974)
In dynare_minimize_objective (line 360)
In dynare_estimation_1 (line 220)
In dynare_estimation (line 105)
In simple8 (line 615)
In dynare (line 235)
And some results like this:
RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION
parameters
prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev
rhoR 0.750 0.7941 NaN beta 0.1500
rpi 1.200 1.1392 NaN gamm 0.0500
rdeltay 0.200 0.4434 NaN gamm 0.0500
b 0.660 0.7650 NaN beta 0.1000
alfa 0.330 0.1710 NaN beta 0.0300
s 0.850 0.8550 NaN beta 0.0500
DSHARE 0.318 0.1196 NaN beta 0.1000
sigma 0.500 0.7234 NaN beta 0.1000
rho_g 0.700 0.1717 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_w 0.700 0.6510 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_nD 0.700 0.6496 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_t 0.700 0.4825 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_i 0.700 0.2989 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_nH 0.700 0.9177 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_lp 0.700 0.7202 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_me 0.700 0.5616 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_Ome 0.700 0.2432 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_lq 0.700 0.6188 NaN beta 0.2000
rho_gb 0.500 0.6771 NaN gamm 0.2500
rho_wb 0.500 0.6160 NaN gamm 0.2500
rho_nDb 0.500 0.5114 NaN gamm 0.2500
rho_gy 0.050 0.1116 NaN norm 0.0500
rho_wy 0.150 0.0804 NaN norm 0.0500
rho_nDy 0.150 0.2994 NaN norm 0.0500
standard deviation of shocks
prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev
mpol_eps 0.100 0.0118 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_g 0.100 3.1587 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_w 0.100 2.0438 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_nD 0.100 0.8676 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_t 0.100 4.8834 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_i 0.100 5.8172 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_nH 0.100 2.6733 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_lp 0.100 4.6842 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_me 0.100 4.3395 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_Ome 0.100 4.8172 NaN invg 2.0000
mpol_lq 0.100 0.8281 NaN invg 2.0000
Log data density [Laplace approximation] is NaN.
Error using chol
Matrix must be positive definite with real diagonal.
Error in posterior_sampler_initialization (line 84)
d = chol(vv);
Error in posterior_sampler (line 60)
posterior_sampler_initialization(TargetFun, xparam1, vv,
mh_bounds,dataset_,dataset_info,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,oo_);
Error in dynare_estimation_1 (line 448)
posterior_sampler(objective_function,posterior_sampler_options.proposal_distribution,xparam1,posterior_sampler_options,bounds,dataset_,dataset_info,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,oo_);
Error in dynare_estimation (line 105)
dynare_estimation_1(var_list,dname);
Error in simple8 (line 615)
oo_recursive_=dynare_estimation(var_list_);
Error in dynare (line 235)
evalin('base',fname) ;