Dear Dynare Team,
A set of codes developed in 2016 was running fine. Using the new Dynare version (4.5.6 instead of 4.5.3) and a newer version of Matlab I receive an error message related to the Kalman filter.
Would you be able to give me some advice? This is the error message I receive:
"There are 27 eigenvalue(s) larger than 1 in modulus
for 27 forward-looking variable(s)
The rank condition is verified.
You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command.
initial_estimation_checks:: The forecast error variance in the multivariate Kalman filter became singular.
initial_estimation_checks:: This is often a sign of stochastic singularity, but can also sometimes happen by chance
initial_estimation_checks:: for a particular combination of parameters and data realizations.
initial_estimation_checks:: If you think the latter is the case, you should try with different initial values for the estimated parameters.
ESTIMATION_CHECKS: There was an error in computing the likelihood for initial parameter values.
ESTIMATION_CHECKS: If this is not a problem with the setting of options (check the error message below),
ESTIMATION_CHECKS: you should try using the calibrated version of the model as starting values. To do
ESTIMATION_CHECKS: this, add an empty estimated_params_init-block with use_calibration option immediately before the estimation
ESTIMATION_CHECKS: command (and after the estimated_params-block so that it does not get overwritten):
Error using initial_estimation_checks (line 143)
initial_estimation_checks:: The forecast error variance in the multivariate Kalman filter became
Error in initial_estimation_checks (line 143)
error(‘initial_estimation_checks:: The forecast error variance in the multivariate Kalman
filter became singular.’)
Error in dynare_estimation_1 (line 165)
Error in dynare_estimation (line 105)
Error in XX_bayes (line 866)
Error in dynare (line 235)
I was trying to modify the initial parameter values, but it did not help.