Simple RBC model setup error for bayesian estimation

Here is the dynare file and data file
RBC_v40.mod (4.5 KB)
data_Mar26.csv (537 Bytes)

Also, another question - can we change x-axis scales of prior-posterior density plots?

It seems you scaled your shock standard deviation in the model by 100 to have 1 represent 1 percent. However, in the data 0.01 is equal to one percent.

Thank you so much for your help prof. Pfeifer. Really appreciate it.

Also, my question : Can we change x-axis scales of prior-posterior density plots? Or can I find the data for plots in one of the estimated files and I can use that to create my own plots?

That is not easily possible, but the manual documents various options that may be helpful.

Thank you Prof. Pfeifer. I will check again.

Also, regarding moments - suppose for model moments- I get 2.2 as SD then that is equivalent to 0.22 which is close to the data moment which I calculate from data. However, after estimated model, I get 0.11 as SD - since it has been calculated using data, I will report it as it is? Correct or i am still missing something.

My point is simulated model and estimated model(bayesian) moments should match the data?

2.2 SD will be read as 0.02 SD for simulated model which is not close enough to data moment of 0.12?

From what I can see, your prior forces the standard deviation to be singificantly higher than in the data. Also, why does your observation for c_obs have a clear downward trend?

I chose informative priors close/ equal to the calibrated values
Yeah, I noticed the trend- I logged and detrended the original data (consumption divided by population). I have tried 2 methods to de-trend : removing the trend theough linear regression as well as one-way hp filter but I still get that trend.

  1. But the calibrated values may not make sense.
  2. Then something must go wrong in your detrending. A linear trend should clearly remove the downward movement.
  1. Calibrated values are chosen to what generally exist in literature
  2. I have checked twice but I will check again if that is where the problem exists.
  3. Also, I am not able to find forecasted values anywhere. I know they are not part of the folder oo_ structure but I also could not find it on the hard disk. Where exactly should I look.