Starting Dynare (version 4.5.7). Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 29 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives: - order 1 Computing dynamic model derivatives: - order 1 - order 2 Processing outputs ... done Preprocessing completed. STEADY-STATE RESULTS: i 0.00380344 i_f -0.00149403 yh -0.000296985 yf -6.90451e-05 yn -0.000228338 ynf -5.98843e-06 s 0.00409996 x -0.000811994 xf 9.78035e-06 pih -0.00733625 pif -0.00203878 pin -0.00686282 pinf -0.00210717 mch -0.000341101 mcn -0.000867695 mcf -1.73637e-05 mcnf -6.05138e-05 c 2.07665e-05 cf -6.32021e-06 de 0.00529747 eps_d 0 eps_st 0 eps_sn 0 eps_df 0 eps_stf 0 eps_snf 0 eps_i 0 eps_if 0 eps_de 0 MODEL SUMMARY Number of variables: 29 Number of stochastic shocks: 9 Number of state variables: 18 Number of jumpers: 10 Number of static variables: 10 MATRIX OF COVARIANCE OF EXOGENOUS SHOCKS Variables u_d u_st u_sn u_df u_stf u_snf u_i u_if u_e u_d 49.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2.565696 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 u_st 0.000000 37.332100 0.000000 0.000000 15.141313 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 u_sn 0.000000 0.000000 1.368900 0.000000 0.000000 0.364865 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 u_df 2.565696 0.000000 0.000000 0.327985 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 u_stf 0.000000 15.141313 0.000000 0.000000 10.304100 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 u_snf 0.000000 0.000000 0.364865 0.000000 0.000000 8.820900 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 u_i 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.066977 0.017192 0.000000 u_if 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.017192 0.016900 0.000000 u_e 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000400 POLICY AND TRANSITION FUNCTIONS i i_f yh yf yn ynf s x xf pih pif pin pinf mch mcn mcf mcnf c cf de eps_d eps_st eps_sn eps_df eps_stf eps_snf eps_i eps_if eps_de Constant 0.003803 -0.001494 -0.000297 -0.000069 -0.000228 -0.000006 0.004100 -0.000812 0.000010 -0.007336 -0.002039 -0.006863 -0.002107 -0.000341 -0.000868 -0.000017 -0.000061 0.000021 -0.000006 0.005297 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 i(-1) 0.304947 -0.083791 -0.437953 -0.095025 -0.356096 -0.082750 0.684569 -0.039270 -0.014513 -0.331159 -0.015728 -0.263699 -0.005288 -2.356162 -0.992118 -0.219584 -0.242934 -0.344049 -0.082257 1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 i_f(-1) 0.125304 0.337026 0.230355 -0.387858 0.122609 -0.414558 -0.771920 0.005763 -0.061472 0.133831 -0.094249 0.107684 -0.029832 0.931606 0.396984 -1.097585 -1.149092 0.120841 -0.412473 -1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 eps_st(-1) -0.002340 0.000126 0.006926 0.000316 0.001538 0.000089 -0.009200 -0.003589 -0.000090 -0.009159 0.000041 -0.004748 0.000012 -0.123179 -0.053886 0.000363 0.000392 0.002639 0.000092 0 0 0.084000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 eps_sn(-1) 0.010644 -0.003819 -0.001897 -0.004095 -0.019247 -0.003956 0.014716 -0.019259 -0.000353 0.013946 -0.000770 0.031890 -0.000227 0.244137 0.450228 -0.010652 -0.011194 -0.013339 -0.003944 0 0 0 -0.172000 0 0 0 0 0 0 eps_stf(-1) 0.006878 0.003550 0.007259 -0.003427 0.008892 -0.001383 -0.014302 0.003493 0.018625 0.007204 0.021506 0.004989 0.002696 0.051111 0.022817 0.350708 0.156518 0.007821 -0.002014 0 0 0 0 0 -0.213000 0 0 0 0 eps_snf(-1) 0.007376 0.005646 0.007742 -0.005243 0.007904 -0.003859 -0.016728 0.002442 0.013968 0.007410 0.024138 0.006463 0.009954 0.047992 0.021028 0.382331 0.594515 0.007155 -0.004332 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.198000 0 0 0 eps_i(-1) 0.393650 -0.380184 -0.317611 -0.367271 -0.181452 -0.382652 -0.420537 0.210931 -0.068072 -0.521733 -0.101196 -0.695081 -0.038553 -1.642959 -0.509337 -1.007838 -1.070481 -0.246161 -0.380343 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.866000 0 0 eps_if(-1) -0.468174 -0.309493 -0.501354 -1.159041 -0.275065 -1.197269 -0.015290 0.139985 -0.232674 -0.455035 -0.439745 -0.593654 -0.207269 -2.215897 -0.836721 -3.129430 -3.361906 -0.318010 -1.189376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.946000 0 eps_de(-1) -0.312718 -0.169924 -0.390923 -0.176205 -0.207666 -0.168835 0.586327 0.061072 -0.029270 -0.331669 -0.040996 -0.366764 -0.015478 -1.649810 -0.653146 -0.445709 -0.482548 -0.226402 -0.167842 0.877000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.877000 s(-1) -0.144403 -0.030947 -0.303429 -0.043092 -0.147274 -0.028050 0.861983 -0.019209 -0.004749 -0.142745 -0.004728 -0.111201 -0.001761 -1.108972 -0.499618 -0.074442 -0.090320 -0.141381 -0.027889 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 x(-1) 0.124455 0.055085 -0.472850 0.051334 0.372496 0.058676 -0.018461 0.829301 0.008217 -0.006427 0.012034 0.165921 0.003579 0.217589 0.584603 0.151433 0.159888 0.118082 0.058397 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 xf(-1) -0.020820 -0.079317 -0.016542 -0.150887 0.070554 -0.038583 0.092331 0.044898 0.880129 -0.022610 -0.114941 -0.075759 0.006122 0.300554 0.132206 -0.835685 0.043252 0.056780 -0.068440 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 pih(-1) 0.062016 0.009280 -0.547378 -0.004487 0.104660 0.011781 0.577097 0.524693 0.009220 0.580109 0.003012 0.003841 0.001243 -0.850017 -0.054099 0.021439 0.023209 -0.056306 0.011468 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 pif(-1) 0.283921 0.123926 0.284334 -0.081691 0.384954 0.002426 -0.447185 0.150993 0.743167 0.309682 0.756867 0.198653 0.007926 2.176026 0.966049 -0.607214 0.141726 0.338633 -0.022785 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 pin(-1) 0.030272 -0.009773 0.060395 -0.008754 -0.080982 -0.010136 -0.018442 -0.132019 -0.001968 -0.021055 -0.002613 0.112612 -0.000883 -0.168529 -0.144281 -0.025952 -0.027682 -0.040481 -0.010069 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 pinf(-1) -0.046072 0.202433 -0.044323 -0.205245 -0.295991 -0.315142 -0.160395 -0.211047 -0.824831 -0.099918 0.060477 0.125463 0.883237 -1.319946 -0.643238 -0.190967 -1.013726 -0.231246 -0.287161 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 eps_d(-1) 0.000469 -0.000051 0.000655 -0.000050 0.001051 -0.000054 0.000368 0.000205 -0.000003 0.000357 -0.000011 0.000119 -0.000003 0.006109 0.002492 -0.000141 -0.000149 0.000988 -0.000054 0 0.005000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 eps_df(-1) -0.009436 0.142764 -0.009162 0.142973 -0.067360 0.147081 -0.039931 -0.028185 0.021715 -0.007190 0.032741 0.024564 0.010511 -0.337460 -0.140172 0.389383 0.411613 -0.058714 0.146344 0 0 0 0 0.701000 0 0 0 0 0 u_d 0.093766 -0.010152 0.131062 -0.010072 0.210207 -0.010849 0.073658 0.041032 -0.000556 0.071483 -0.002175 0.023868 -0.000668 1.221738 0.498440 -0.028229 -0.029735 0.197619 -0.010830 0 1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 u_st -0.027852 0.001502 0.082457 0.003760 0.018311 0.001064 -0.109519 -0.042729 -0.001069 -0.109035 0.000484 -0.056518 0.000139 -1.466416 -0.641498 0.004316 0.004661 0.031419 0.001100 0 0 1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 u_sn -0.061882 0.022202 0.011029 0.023810 0.111902 0.023002 -0.085557 0.111971 0.002052 -0.081081 0.004476 -0.185406 0.001320 -1.419401 -2.617603 0.061928 0.065084 0.077551 0.022932 0 0 0 1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 u_df -0.013461 0.203658 -0.013070 0.203955 -0.096092 0.209816 -0.056963 -0.040207 0.030977 -0.010256 0.046707 0.035041 0.014995 -0.481398 -0.199960 0.555467 0.587180 -0.083757 0.208765 0 0 0 0 1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 u_stf -0.032291 -0.016665 -0.034081 0.016090 -0.041748 0.006491 0.067143 -0.016400 -0.087442 -0.033824 -0.100967 -0.023424 -0.012658 -0.239957 -0.107123 -1.646515 -0.734824 -0.036717 0.009457 0 0 0 0 0 1.000000 0 0 0 0 u_snf -0.037253 -0.028517 -0.039103 0.026482 -0.039918 0.019488 0.084482 -0.012331 -0.070544 -0.037424 -0.121907 -0.032643 -0.050272 -0.242385 -0.106204 -1.930965 -3.002600 -0.036135 0.021881 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000000 0 0 0 u_i 0.454561 -0.439011 -0.366756 -0.424100 -0.209528 -0.441862 -0.485608 0.243569 -0.078605 -0.602463 -0.116855 -0.802633 -0.044519 -1.897181 -0.588149 -1.163786 -1.236122 -0.284251 -0.439195 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000000 0 0 u_if -0.494898 -0.327160 -0.529973 -1.225202 -0.290766 -1.265612 -0.016163 0.147976 -0.245955 -0.481010 -0.464847 -0.627541 -0.219100 -2.342386 -0.884483 -3.308065 -3.553812 -0.336163 -1.257268 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000000 0 u_e -0.356577 -0.193756 -0.445750 -0.200918 -0.236791 -0.192514 0.668560 0.069637 -0.033375 -0.378186 -0.046745 -0.418203 -0.017649 -1.881197 -0.744750 -0.508220 -0.550226 -0.258155 -0.191382 1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000000 MOMENTS OF SIMULATED VARIABLES VARIABLE MEAN STD. DEV. VARIANCE SKEWNESS KURTOSIS i 0.144786 1.125259 1.266207 0.021737 0.002661 i_f 0.144413 0.681981 0.465098 -0.043721 -0.320266 yh -0.112931 2.241083 5.022454 0.080723 0.159731 yf 0.028051 0.425559 0.181100 0.040287 0.004913 yn 0.039858 1.515217 2.295882 0.065176 -0.049952 ynf 0.031340 0.406367 0.165134 0.105764 0.062702 s 0.128402 3.068376 9.414929 -0.015641 -0.015710 x 0.125899 1.691874 2.862438 0.029044 -0.125037 xf -0.002508 1.215269 1.476878 0.046589 -0.251260 pih 0.169668 1.496584 2.239763 0.023350 -0.068619 pif 0.172663 0.851548 0.725134 -0.072025 -0.269568 pin 0.171181 0.968580 0.938147 -0.094309 -0.113854 pinf 0.171262 0.706072 0.498537 -0.109203 -0.624747 mch 0.068763 13.605023 185.096656 0.017633 0.000707 mcn 0.155331 6.422077 41.243075 -0.004955 -0.018997 mcf -0.067093 8.164701 66.662345 0.036554 -0.038352 mcnf -0.082712 9.372988 87.852896 0.078548 -0.079157 c 0.001234 1.424749 2.029910 0.150419 0.023489 cf 0.031425 0.404020 0.163233 0.094715 0.083026 de 0.001920 1.064935 1.134086 0.064335 0.191553 eps_d -0.077295 6.888141 47.446482 0.114901 0.017416 eps_st -0.072243 6.144549 37.755482 0.015450 -0.047335 eps_sn -0.026252 1.178097 1.387912 -0.002772 0.066551 eps_df -0.046497 0.787037 0.619427 0.129361 0.073150 eps_stf 0.034892 3.337289 11.137498 -0.021983 0.101054 eps_snf 0.046346 3.002293 9.013762 -0.118177 0.026272 eps_i -0.053765 0.511778 0.261917 -0.017934 -0.299938 eps_if -0.109910 0.425505 0.181054 0.190412 -0.384990 eps_de 0.002171 0.040985 0.001680 -0.081436 -0.153229 CORRELATION OF SIMULATED VARIABLES VARIABLE i i_f yh yf yn ynf s x xf pih pif pin pinf mch mcn mcf mcnf c cf de eps_d eps_st eps_sn eps_df eps_stf eps_snf eps_i eps_if eps_de i 1.0000 0.3891 0.0986 -0.1849 0.6005 -0.1327 0.0182 0.3450 0.1782 0.6549 0.6218 0.4621 0.5404 0.5258 0.5311 0.1477 0.1192 0.5129 -0.1516 0.4189 0.5757 -0.2554 -0.0757 0.3058 -0.1707 -0.0885 0.0760 -0.4331 -0.0182 i_f 0.3891 1.0000 -0.0973 0.2382 0.1903 0.3563 0.0356 0.2784 0.2433 0.5911 0.7607 0.8076 0.8310 0.0563 0.0861 0.1117 0.1466 0.1010 0.3335 -0.2402 -0.0369 -0.0190 0.0129 0.2033 -0.0329 -0.0924 -0.6899 -0.7844 -0.0160 yh 0.0986 -0.0973 1.0000 0.3431 0.2961 0.0283 -0.7849 -0.7836 -0.4737 0.0503 -0.1413 0.0360 -0.1669 0.3651 0.1930 0.0812 0.0427 0.6004 0.0768 -0.3988 0.4093 0.1879 0.0040 0.0024 0.0346 -0.0555 0.0909 0.1096 0.0319 yf -0.1849 0.2382 0.3431 1.0000 -0.0446 0.8886 -0.1657 -0.4059 -0.3397 0.0624 -0.0843 0.2027 -0.0761 -0.0106 -0.1014 0.0053 -0.0467 0.1004 0.9284 -0.2943 0.0008 0.1421 0.0763 0.1296 0.0914 0.1264 -0.4028 -0.4028 -0.0139 yn 0.6005 0.1903 0.2961 -0.0446 1.0000 0.0375 0.1898 0.3404 0.2210 0.4588 0.1720 0.3645 0.1611 0.5936 0.5208 0.0351 0.0623 0.9395 0.0151 -0.1089 0.9258 -0.0123 0.0527 0.3350 -0.0305 -0.0461 -0.1740 -0.1382 -0.0221 ynf -0.1327 0.3563 0.0283 0.8886 0.0375 1.0000 0.1712 -0.0520 0.1075 0.1689 0.0608 0.3218 0.0513 -0.0144 -0.0539 0.0186 0.0063 0.0588 0.9948 -0.2226 -0.0149 0.0498 0.0747 0.2028 0.0339 0.1095 -0.5460 -0.5538 -0.0309 s 0.0182 0.0356 -0.7849 -0.1657 0.1898 0.1712 1.0000 0.8097 0.4811 0.0485 0.0256 0.0389 0.0411 -0.0397 0.0840 -0.0604 -0.0301 -0.0931 0.1231 0.2754 0.1418 -0.1811 -0.0260 0.2421 -0.0387 0.0681 -0.1927 -0.1051 -0.0511 x 0.3450 0.2784 -0.7836 -0.4059 0.3404 -0.0520 0.8097 1.0000 0.6177 0.2889 0.3180 0.2388 0.3377 0.0081 0.1289 -0.0565 0.0041 -0.0023 -0.1153 0.3307 0.1477 -0.1873 0.0500 0.1772 -0.0536 0.0134 -0.1984 -0.2292 -0.0410 xf 0.1782 0.2433 -0.4737 -0.3397 0.2210 0.1075 0.4811 0.6177 1.0000 0.2638 0.3597 0.2747 0.3029 0.0687 0.1509 0.0656 0.1622 0.0100 0.0061 0.0836 -0.0076 -0.1785 -0.0081 0.1025 -0.1475 -0.0933 -0.2395 -0.2815 -0.0219 pih 0.6549 0.5911 0.0503 0.0624 0.4588 0.1689 0.0485 0.2889 0.2638 1.0000 0.6112 0.8314 0.4186 0.6406 0.6257 0.2731 0.1648 0.3827 0.1430 -0.0787 0.3249 -0.5127 -0.0665 0.1043 -0.3453 -0.0493 -0.4909 -0.4324 -0.0080 pif 0.6218 0.7607 -0.1413 -0.0843 0.1720 0.0608 0.0256 0.3180 0.3597 0.6112 1.0000 0.6876 0.8309 0.2356 0.2657 0.4543 0.4487 0.0670 0.0245 0.1004 -0.0129 -0.2760 -0.0214 0.0572 -0.3078 -0.3621 -0.2840 -0.6881 -0.0081 pin 0.4621 0.8076 0.0360 0.2027 0.3645 0.3218 0.0389 0.2388 0.2747 0.8314 0.6876 1.0000 0.6385 0.5266 0.5870 0.2925 0.2081 0.3007 0.2956 -0.3586 0.1662 -0.3943 -0.2416 0.0406 -0.3071 -0.0849 -0.6853 -0.6385 -0.0327 pinf 0.5404 0.8310 -0.1669 -0.0761 0.1611 0.0513 0.0411 0.3377 0.3029 0.4186 0.8309 0.6385 1.0000 0.0244 0.0808 0.1147 0.1901 0.0483 0.0207 0.0263 -0.0316 -0.0244 -0.0195 0.0264 -0.0165 -0.1779 -0.3251 -0.8074 -0.0419 mch 0.5258 0.0563 0.3651 -0.0106 0.5936 -0.0144 -0.0397 0.0081 0.0687 0.6406 0.2356 0.5266 0.0244 1.0000 0.9160 0.4233 0.1896 0.6284 -0.0215 -0.1732 0.6327 -0.7137 -0.1294 0.1817 -0.5659 -0.0415 -0.0225 -0.0220 0.0018 mcn 0.5311 0.0861 0.1930 -0.1014 0.5208 -0.0539 0.0840 0.1289 0.1509 0.6257 0.2657 0.5870 0.0808 0.9160 1.0000 0.3863 0.1981 0.5069 -0.0696 -0.1087 0.5511 -0.6577 -0.4896 0.1766 -0.5057 -0.0702 -0.0458 -0.0552 -0.0005 mcf 0.1477 0.1117 0.0812 0.0053 0.0351 0.0186 -0.0604 -0.0565 0.0656 0.2731 0.4543 0.2925 0.1147 0.4233 0.3863 1.0000 0.8684 0.0579 0.0120 -0.0386 0.0270 -0.4729 -0.0518 0.0415 -0.6681 -0.7069 -0.0234 -0.0299 0.0124 mcnf 0.1192 0.1466 0.0427 -0.0467 0.0623 0.0063 -0.0301 0.0041 0.1622 0.1648 0.4487 0.2081 0.1901 0.1896 0.1981 0.8684 1.0000 0.0648 -0.0102 0.0024 0.0137 -0.1694 -0.0805 0.0441 -0.2368 -0.9575 -0.0598 -0.0668 0.0132 c 0.5129 0.1010 0.6004 0.1004 0.9395 0.0588 -0.0931 -0.0023 0.0100 0.3827 0.0670 0.3007 0.0483 0.6284 0.5069 0.0579 0.0648 1.0000 0.0581 -0.2363 0.9308 0.0551 0.0378 0.2917 -0.0129 -0.0539 -0.1127 -0.0634 -0.0085 cf -0.1516 0.3335 0.0768 0.9284 0.0151 0.9948 0.1231 -0.1153 0.0061 0.1430 0.0245 0.2956 0.0207 -0.0215 -0.0696 0.0120 -0.0102 0.0581 1.0000 -0.2324 -0.0142 0.0683 0.0760 0.1935 0.0491 0.1197 -0.5248 -0.5283 -0.0288 de 0.4189 -0.2402 -0.3988 -0.2943 -0.1089 -0.2226 0.2754 0.3307 0.0836 -0.0787 0.1004 -0.3586 0.0263 -0.1732 -0.1087 -0.0386 0.0024 -0.2363 -0.2324 1.0000 0.0154 -0.0423 0.0261 0.1573 0.0380 -0.0401 0.4336 0.0394 0.0227 eps_d 0.5757 -0.0369 0.4093 0.0008 0.9258 -0.0149 0.1418 0.1477 -0.0076 0.3249 -0.0129 0.1662 -0.0316 0.6327 0.5511 0.0270 0.0137 0.9308 -0.0142 0.0154 1.0000 -0.0325 -0.0131 0.4346 -0.0300 -0.0076 0.0419 0.0249 -0.0093 eps_st -0.2554 -0.0190 0.1879 0.1421 -0.0123 0.0498 -0.1811 -0.1873 -0.1785 -0.5127 -0.2760 -0.3943 -0.0244 -0.7137 -0.6577 -0.4729 -0.1694 0.0551 0.0683 -0.0423 -0.0325 1.0000 -0.0119 -0.0153 0.7271 -0.0187 -0.0359 0.0027 -0.0001 eps_sn -0.0757 0.0129 0.0040 0.0763 0.0527 0.0747 -0.0260 0.0500 -0.0081 -0.0665 -0.0214 -0.2416 -0.0195 -0.1294 -0.4896 -0.0518 -0.0805 0.0378 0.0760 0.0261 -0.0131 -0.0119 1.0000 -0.0094 -0.0116 0.0948 0.0046 0.0062 -0.0079 eps_df 0.3058 0.2033 0.0024 0.1296 0.3350 0.2028 0.2421 0.1772 0.1025 0.1043 0.0572 0.0406 0.0264 0.1817 0.1766 0.0415 0.0441 0.2917 0.1935 0.1573 0.4346 -0.0153 -0.0094 1.0000 -0.0233 -0.0125 0.0060 -0.0342 0.0694 eps_stf -0.1707 -0.0329 0.0346 0.0914 -0.0305 0.0339 -0.0387 -0.0536 -0.1475 -0.3453 -0.3078 -0.3071 -0.0165 -0.5659 -0.5057 -0.6681 -0.2368 -0.0129 0.0491 0.0380 -0.0300 0.7271 -0.0116 -0.0233 1.0000 -0.0252 -0.0283 -0.0145 -0.0012 eps_snf -0.0885 -0.0924 -0.0555 0.1264 -0.0461 0.1095 0.0681 0.0134 -0.0933 -0.0493 -0.3621 -0.0849 -0.1779 -0.0415 -0.0702 -0.7069 -0.9575 -0.0539 0.1197 -0.0401 -0.0076 -0.0187 0.0948 -0.0125 -0.0252 1.0000 -0.0030 -0.0017 -0.0173 eps_i 0.0760 -0.6899 0.0909 -0.4028 -0.1740 -0.5460 -0.1927 -0.1984 -0.2395 -0.4909 -0.2840 -0.6853 -0.3251 -0.0225 -0.0458 -0.0234 -0.0598 -0.1127 -0.5248 0.4336 0.0419 -0.0359 0.0046 0.0060 -0.0283 -0.0030 1.0000 0.4179 0.0244 eps_if -0.4331 -0.7844 0.1096 -0.4028 -0.1382 -0.5538 -0.1051 -0.2292 -0.2815 -0.4324 -0.6881 -0.6385 -0.8074 -0.0220 -0.0552 -0.0299 -0.0668 -0.0634 -0.5283 0.0394 0.0249 0.0027 0.0062 -0.0342 -0.0145 -0.0017 0.4179 1.0000 0.0498 eps_de -0.0182 -0.0160 0.0319 -0.0139 -0.0221 -0.0309 -0.0511 -0.0410 -0.0219 -0.0080 -0.0081 -0.0327 -0.0419 0.0018 -0.0005 0.0124 0.0132 -0.0085 -0.0288 0.0227 -0.0093 -0.0001 -0.0079 0.0694 -0.0012 -0.0173 0.0244 0.0498 1.0000 AUTOCORRELATION OF SIMULATED VARIABLES VARIABLE 1 2 3 4 5 i 0.6489 0.4009 0.2416 0.1629 0.1388 i_f 0.9498 0.8786 0.8078 0.7476 0.7000 yh 0.5355 0.3479 0.1521 0.0202 -0.0668 yf 0.7205 0.5174 0.3505 0.2170 0.1355 yn -0.0232 0.0580 0.0110 0.0212 0.0198 ynf 0.7198 0.5602 0.4458 0.3579 0.3010 s 0.8876 0.6383 0.3717 0.1545 0.0116 x 0.8889 0.6382 0.3554 0.1147 -0.0474 xf 0.9225 0.7596 0.5496 0.3331 0.1392 pih 0.6458 0.3498 0.1589 0.0426 0.0076 pif 0.7691 0.6583 0.5440 0.4694 0.4379 pin 0.6428 0.5532 0.5196 0.4751 0.4476 pinf 0.9694 0.9480 0.9200 0.8903 0.8586 mch -0.1030 -0.1298 -0.0693 -0.0719 -0.0218 mcn -0.1042 -0.0714 -0.0061 -0.0311 -0.0197 mcf -0.2700 0.0225 -0.0657 -0.0695 -0.0179 mcnf -0.2451 0.0537 -0.0249 -0.0086 -0.0091 c -0.1391 -0.0461 -0.0632 -0.0153 0.0086 cf 0.7116 0.5415 0.4188 0.3269 0.2708 de 0.5962 0.2949 0.0976 0.0041 -0.0288 eps_d -0.0190 0.0184 -0.0360 -0.0187 -0.0113 eps_st 0.0757 -0.0251 0.0076 -0.0324 0.0162 eps_sn -0.1507 0.0048 0.0462 -0.0266 -0.0306 eps_df 0.6946 0.4891 0.3294 0.2250 0.1610 eps_stf -0.2175 0.0175 -0.0210 -0.0295 0.0024 eps_snf -0.2368 0.0497 -0.0182 0.0088 -0.0158 eps_i 0.8615 0.7353 0.6216 0.5209 0.4368 eps_if 0.9505 0.9043 0.8572 0.8107 0.7664 eps_de 0.8739 0.7621 0.6630 0.5750 0.5059 VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION SIMULATING ONE SHOCK AT A TIME (in percent) u_d u_st u_sn u_df u_stf u_snf u_i u_if u_e Tot. lin. contr. i 41.19 12.10 0.97 0.98 2.68 7.65 6.14 25.76 0.08 97.56 i_f 0.30 0.78 0.18 6.83 0.82 4.33 58.97 27.53 0.03 99.76 yh 41.61 46.00 0.11 0.21 1.54 2.00 10.67 0.53 0.01 102.68 yf 0.38 17.35 1.01 4.83 7.25 24.21 28.98 24.03 0.01 108.04 yn 89.61 2.43 0.97 0.12 1.24 1.90 6.84 0.38 0.01 103.50 ynf 0.28 1.76 0.76 5.62 1.19 14.68 39.72 37.43 0.01 101.47 s 35.33 47.17 0.87 1.38 1.32 2.72 9.81 1.68 0.01 100.28 x 16.11 55.94 1.08 0.32 3.66 5.18 25.66 1.39 0.02 109.36 xf 0.08 33.61 0.24 0.36 23.10 24.92 10.37 12.86 0.00 105.54 pih 19.32 40.00 0.57 0.36 1.66 2.82 33.56 5.03 0.02 103.35 pif 0.04 11.79 0.21 0.16 8.75 24.11 17.30 40.54 0.00 102.88 pin 7.57 18.12 5.95 0.40 0.58 2.33 55.31 12.45 0.03 102.74 pinf 0.02 1.16 0.13 0.08 0.81 14.39 26.04 60.95 0.00 103.59 mch 42.53 52.18 1.87 0.04 0.25 0.48 0.77 0.07 0.00 98.18 mcn 30.15 42.91 24.19 0.04 0.27 0.50 0.82 0.08 0.00 98.96 mcf 0.00 27.79 0.46 0.10 20.90 52.78 0.55 0.38 0.00 102.96 mcnf 0.00 3.94 0.88 0.08 2.99 92.56 0.63 0.63 0.00 101.71 c 94.78 1.86 0.49 0.08 0.53 0.95 2.14 0.17 0.00 101.00 cf 0.27 3.15 0.82 5.61 2.32 17.70 38.07 34.83 0.01 102.78 de 47.41 10.52 1.26 1.68 2.14 3.55 23.21 4.24 0.06 94.07 eps_d 100.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.05 eps_st 0.00 100.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.05 eps_sn 0.00 0.00 100.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.05 eps_df 38.96 0.00 0.00 62.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 101.40 eps_stf 0.00 58.06 0.00 0.00 43.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 101.41 eps_snf 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.00 0.00 99.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.26 eps_i 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.05 0.00 0.00 100.05 eps_if 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.25 81.41 0.00 103.66 eps_de 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.05 100.05 Note: numbers do not add up to 100 due to non-zero correlation of simulated shocks in small samples You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command. Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): 48.5412 ========================================================== Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 10. Change in the posterior mean = 0.08027. Mode improvement = 247.9633 New value of jscale = 0.00064888 ==========================================================