Starting Dynare (version 5.4). Calling Dynare with arguments: none Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 25 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives (order 1). Computing dynamic model derivatives (order 2). Processing outputs ... done Preprocessing completed. ==== Method of Moments Estimation (SMM) ==== Computing data moments. Note that NaN values in the moments (due to leads and lags or missing data) are replaced by the mean of the corresponding moment Initial value of the moment objective function with 1.0 times identity weighting matrix: 0.0000 Time required to compute objective function once: 0.2010 seconds --------------------------------------------------- Simulated method of moments with - centered moments (prefilter=1) - optimizer (mode_compute=13): lsqnonlin - perturbation order: 1 - standard errors: numerical derivatives - number of matched moments: 8 - number of parameters: 8 Estimation stage 1 - diagonal of optimal weighting matrix (Bartlett kernel with 20 lags) and using data-moments as initial estimate of model-moments Norm of First-order Iteration Func-count f(x) step optimality 0 9 115.287 2.35e+04 1 18 115.287 10 2.35e+04 2 27 115.287 2.5 2.35e+04 3 36 115.287 0.625 2.35e+04 4 45 115.287 0.15625 2.35e+04 5 54 42.3373 0.0390625 2.56e+03 6 63 40.4469 0.078125 107 7 72 40.4469 0.15625 107 8 81 40.4468 0.0390625 17.5 9 90 40.3902 0.00976562 381 10 99 40.3326 0.0195312 18 11 108 40.3326 0.0390625 18 12 117 40.3315 0.00976562 55.5 13 126 40.3302 0.00976562 18 14 135 40.3302 0.0195312 18 15 144 40.329 0.00488281 51.8 16 153 40.328 0.00976562 18 17 162 40.3273 0.00976562 49.1 18 171 40.3265 0.00976562 18.1 19 180 40.3258 0.00976562 46.6 20 189 40.325 0.00976562 18.1 21 198 40.3244 0.00976562 44.2 22 207 40.3238 0.00976562 18.1 23 216 40.3232 0.00976562 41.9 24 225 40.3227 0.00976562 18.1 25 234 40.3222 0.00976562 39.7 26 243 40.3216 0.00976562 18.1 27 252 40.3212 0.00976562 37.6 28 261 40.3207 0.00976562 18.2 29 270 40.3204 0.00976562 35.7 30 279 40.3199 0.00976562 18.2 31 288 40.3196 0.00976562 33.8 32 297 40.3192 0.00976562 18.2 33 306 40.3189 0.00976562 32.1 34 315 40.3185 0.00976562 18.2 35 324 40.3182 0.00976562 30.4 36 333 40.3179 0.00976562 18.3 37 342 40.3177 0.00976562 28.8 38 351 40.3173 0.00976562 18.3 39 360 40.3171 0.00976562 27.3 40 369 40.3168 0.00976562 18.3 41 378 40.3166 0.00976562 25.9 42 387 40.3163 0.00976562 18.4 43 396 40.3161 0.00976562 24.6 44 405 40.3158 0.00976562 18.4 45 414 40.3156 0.00976562 23.3 46 423 40.3153 0.00976562 18.4 47 432 40.3152 0.00976562 22.1 48 441 40.3149 0.00976562 18.5 49 450 40.3147 0.00976562 21 50 459 40.3144 0.00976562 18.5 51 468 40.3142 0.00976562 19.9 52 477 40.3139 0.00976562 19.3 53 486 40.3138 0.00976562 18.9 54 495 40.3135 0.00976562 20.4 55 504 40.3133 0.00976562 17.9 56 513 40.313 0.00976562 21.6 57 522 40.3127 0.00976562 17 58 531 40.3124 0.00976562 22.8 59 540 40.3122 0.00976562 17 60 549 40.3119 0.00976562 24.1 61 558 40.3116 0.00976562 17 62 567 40.3113 0.00976562 25.5 63 576 40.311 0.00976562 17 64 585 40.3106 0.00976562 26.9 65 594 40.3103 0.00976562 17.1 66 603 40.3099 0.00976562 28.5 67 612 40.3096 0.00976562 17.1 68 621 40.3091 0.00976562 30.1 69 630 40.3087 0.00976562 17.1 70 639 40.3083 0.00976562 31.8 71 648 40.3079 0.00976562 17.2 72 657 40.3073 0.00976562 33.6 73 666 40.3069 0.00976562 17.2 74 675 40.3063 0.00976562 35.5 75 684 40.3058 0.00976562 17.2 76 693 40.3052 0.00976562 37.6 77 702 40.3046 0.00976562 17.2 78 711 40.3039 0.00976562 39.7 79 720 40.3033 0.00976562 17.3 80 729 40.3026 0.00976562 42 81 738 40.3017 0.00976562 17.3 82 747 40.3011 0.0195312 40.9 83 756 40.3003 0.0195312 17.3 84 765 40.3003 0.0390625 17.3 85 774 40.2993 0.00976562 41.8 86 783 40.2987 0.0195312 17.3 87 792 40.2977 0.0195312 45.3 88 801 40.297 0.0390625 17.4 89 810 40.297 0.0390625 17.4 90 819 40.2957 0.00976562 50.5 91 828 40.2947 0.0195312 17.4 92 837 40.2937 0.0390625 54.2 93 846 40.2937 0.0390625 54.2 94 855 40.2923 0.00976562 17.4 95 864 40.291 0.0195312 55.1 96 873 40.291 0.0390625 55.1 97 882 40.2896 0.00976562 17.4 98 891 40.2883 0.0195312 56 99 900 40.2883 0.0390625 56 100 909 40.2868 0.00976562 17.5 101 918 40.2855 0.0195312 57.2 102 927 40.2855 0.0390625 57.2 103 936 40.2839 0.00976562 17.5 104 945 40.2826 0.0195312 58.4 105 954 40.2823 0.0390625 17.6 106 963 40.2789 0.00976562 86.4 107 972 40.2757 0.0195312 17.6 108 981 40.2722 0.0390625 92.8 109 990 40.2722 0.078125 92.8 110 999 40.2686 0.0195312 17.6 111 1008 40.2686 0.0390625 17.6 112 1017 40.2637 0.00976562 104 113 1026 40.2637 0.0195312 104 114 1035 40.2591 0.00488281 17.6 115 1044 40.2516 0.00976562 113 116 1053 40.2457 0.0195312 17.6 117 1062 40.2438 0.0390625 91.9 118 1071 40.2403 0.0390625 17.7 119 1080 40.2403 0.078125 17.7 120 1089 40.234 0.0195312 123 121 1098 40.2282 0.0390625 17.8 122 1107 40.207 0.078125 282 123 1116 40.207 0.078125 282 124 1125 40.1741 0.0195312 18 125 1134 38.6681 0.0390625 511 126 1143 38.6681 0.078125 511 127 1152 38.4893 0.0195312 28.4 128 1161 38.4816 0.0390625 134 129 1170 38.4816 0.0390625 134 130 1179 38.4693 0.00976562 21.8 131 1188 38.4643 0.0195312 117 132 1197 38.4643 0.0195312 117 133 1206 38.4541 0.00488281 21.9 134 1215 38.4439 0.00976562 138 135 1224 38.4307 0.00976562 21.9 136 1233 38.4175 0.0195312 200 137 1242 38.397 0.0195312 22.4 138 1251 38.3599 0.0195312 321 139 1260 38.2961 0.0195312 25.6 140 1269 38.2941 0.0390625 302 141 1278 38.2285 0.00976562 22.4 142 1287 38.2273 0.0195312 104 143 1296 38.2186 0.00488281 22.5 144 1305 38.1998 0.00976562 122 145 1314 38.1776 0.0195312 23 146 1323 38.1776 0.0390625 23 147 1332 38.1743 0.00976562 60.1 148 1341 38.1711 0.00976562 23.2 149 1350 38.1711 0.0195312 23.2 150 1359 38.1679 0.00488281 48.9 151 1368 38.1645 0.00976562 30.6 152 1377 38.1574 0.0195312 92 153 1386 38.1574 0.0195312 92 154 1395 38.1504 0.00488281 22.8 155 1404 38.1417 0.00976562 99.7 156 1413 38.1367 0.0195312 22.7 157 1422 38.136 0.0195312 108 158 1431 38.1263 0.00488281 22.9 159 1440 38.1166 0.00976562 91.3 160 1449 38.1024 0.0195312 23.2 161 1458 38.1024 0.0390625 23.2 162 1467 38.099 0.00976562 66.4 163 1476 38.094 0.00976562 34.9 164 1485 38.0827 0.0195312 134 165 1494 38.0781 0.0195312 36.5 166 1503 37.8784 0.0195312 583 167 1512 37.6235 0.0195312 67.7 168 1521 36.8783 0.0390625 454 169 1530 36.5308 0.078125 134 170 1539 36.5308 0.15625 134 171 1548 36.5308 0.0390625 134 172 1557 36.5308 0.00976562 134 173 1566 36.4705 0.00244141 100 174 1575 36.4705 0.00488281 100 175 1584 36.3886 0.0012207 162 176 1593 36.3044 0.00244141 133 177 1602 36.2067 0.00488281 154 178 1611 36.0876 0.00976562 213 179 1620 35.9941 0.0195312 121 180 1629 35.9941 0.0390625 121 181 1638 35.9078 0.00976562 128 182 1647 35.9078 0.0195312 128 183 1656 35.7846 0.00488281 171 184 1665 35.6439 0.00976562 174 185 1674 35.5082 0.0195312 165 186 1683 35.3306 0.0390625 190 187 1692 35.2207 0.078125 379 188 1701 35.2207 0.078125 379 189 1710 34.9671 0.0195312 146 190 1719 34.9671 0.0390625 146 191 1728 34.9671 0.00976562 146 192 1737 33.8633 0.00244141 269 193 1746 33.5325 0.00488281 328 194 1755 33.2433 0.00976562 250 195 1764 33.0117 0.0195312 261 196 1773 33.0117 0.0390625 261 197 1782 32.7914 0.00976562 226 198 1791 32.3944 0.0195312 436 199 1800 31.9844 0.0390625 243 200 1809 31.9844 0.0390625 243 201 1818 31.6844 0.00976562 236 202 1827 31.1873 0.0195312 383 203 1836 30.5381 0.0390625 226 204 1845 30.5381 0.078125 226 205 1854 30.078 0.0195312 349 206 1863 29.4091 0.0390625 155 207 1872 29.4091 0.078125 155 208 1881 28.7398 0.0195312 254 209 1890 28.091 0.0390625 108 210 1899 27.3673 0.078125 148 211 1908 27.3673 0.15625 148 212 1917 27.0904 0.0390625 101 213 1926 27.0904 0.078125 101 214 1935 26.9526 0.0195312 136 215 1944 26.7521 0.0390625 96.3 216 1953 26.7521 0.078125 96.3 217 1962 23.0014 0.0195312 287 218 1971 22.3789 0.0390625 94 219 1980 22.3789 0.078125 94 220 1989 21.5973 0.0195312 240 221 1998 21.1121 0.0390625 499 222 2007 20.4139 0.078125 137 223 2016 20.4139 0.15625 137 224 2025 20.1163 0.0390625 183 225 2034 20.1163 0.078125 183 226 2043 19.9771 0.0195312 131 227 2052 19.7607 0.0390625 83.2 228 2061 19.7607 0.078125 83.2 229 2070 19.4409 0.0195312 176 230 2079 19.2635 0.0390625 83.2 231 2088 19.2635 0.078125 83.2 232 2097 19.2635 0.0195312 83.2 233 2106 18.4411 0.00488281 264 234 2115 18.2481 0.00976562 90 235 2124 18.0786 0.0195312 182 236 2133 17.9624 0.0390625 128 237 2142 17.0893 0.078125 102 238 2151 17.0893 0.15625 102 239 2160 16.8315 0.0390625 79.6 240 2169 16.544 0.078125 155 241 2178 16.544 0.15625 155 242 2187 16.1344 0.0390625 76.9 243 2196 16.1344 0.078125 76.9 244 2205 15.9784 0.0195312 137 245 2214 15.8878 0.0390625 73.2 246 2223 15.8878 0.078125 73.2 247 2232 15.5946 0.0195312 282 248 2241 15.2646 0.0390625 178 249 2250 14.883 0.078125 97.4 250 2259 14.883 0.078125 97.4 251 2268 14.6479 0.0195312 107 252 2277 14.3433 0.0390625 184 253 2286 14.082 0.078125 105 254 2295 14.082 0.078125 105 255 2304 13.8215 0.0195312 69.6 256 2313 13.4642 0.0390625 190 257 2322 13.4186 0.078125 113 258 2331 13.4186 0.078125 113 259 2340 13.1283 0.0195312 67.4 260 2349 12.6981 0.0390625 179 261 2358 12.6981 0.078125 179 262 2367 12.6981 0.0195312 179 263 2376 12.6477 0.00488281 63.4 264 2385 12.6429 0.00976562 84.9 265 2394 12.6091 0.00244141 63.9 266 2403 12.5753 0.00488281 79.2 267 2412 12.5753 0.00976562 79.2 268 2421 12.5525 0.00244141 76.2 269 2430 12.5352 0.00488281 61.9 270 2439 12.509 0.00488281 104 271 2448 12.4996 0.00976562 60.3 272 2457 12.4462 0.00976562 185 273 2466 12.413 0.00976562 60.4 274 2475 12.1642 0.00976562 634 275 2484 11.9019 0.0195312 91.6 276 2493 11.7913 0.0195312 78.4 277 2502 11.7913 0.0390625 78.4 278 2511 11.7913 0.00976562 78.4 279 2520 11.7708 0.00244141 62.3 280 2529 11.7524 0.00488281 64.2 281 2538 11.7397 0.00976562 107 282 2547 11.7254 0.00976562 55.7 283 2556 11.6871 0.00976562 227 284 2565 11.6337 0.00976562 55.6 285 2574 10.2312 0.00976562 74.2 286 2583 10.2154 0.0195312 47.7 287 2592 10.1375 0.0195312 135 288 2601 10.1372 0.0390625 46.5 289 2610 10.0353 0.00976562 120 290 2619 9.89883 0.0195312 64.1 291 2628 9.89883 0.0390625 64.1 292 2637 9.87782 0.00976562 87.2 293 2646 9.86473 0.00976562 45 294 2655 9.83593 0.00976562 159 295 2664 9.80652 0.00976562 44.8 296 2673 9.63262 0.00976562 472 297 2682 9.44358 0.0195312 53.3 298 2691 9.37695 0.0195312 66.3 299 2700 9.37695 0.0390625 66.3 300 2709 9.36337 0.00976562 43.4 301 2718 9.33862 0.00976562 89.9 302 2727 9.32788 0.0195312 43 303 2736 9.17486 0.0195312 404 304 2745 8.96187 0.0195312 51.7 305 2754 8.96187 0.0390625 51.7 306 2763 8.91482 0.00976562 99.1 307 2772 8.91482 0.0195312 99.1 308 2781 8.89134 0.00488281 41.6 309 2790 8.87434 0.00976562 76.8 310 2799 8.84924 0.0195312 41.7 311 2808 8.84924 0.0195312 41.7 312 2817 8.83002 0.00488281 63.4 313 2826 8.81788 0.00976562 41.2 314 2835 8.80133 0.00976562 97.5 315 2844 8.78386 0.00976562 41.2 316 2853 8.75441 0.00976562 164 317 2862 8.71875 0.00976562 41 318 2871 8.71875 0.0195312 41 319 2880 8.32979 0.00488281 365 320 2889 8.16683 0.00976562 39 321 2898 8.12405 0.0195312 114 322 2907 8.07244 0.0195312 38.6 323 2916 8.07003 0.0390625 38 324 2925 8.01269 0.00976562 71.2 325 2934 7.93982 0.0195312 38.3 326 2943 7.93982 0.0390625 38.3 327 2952 7.93212 0.00976562 52.4 328 2961 7.91961 0.00976562 38.1 329 2970 7.90925 0.00976562 73.9 330 2979 7.8939 0.00976562 38 331 2988 7.86998 0.00976562 135 332 2997 7.84146 0.0195312 37.5 333 3006 7.75791 0.0195312 311 334 3015 7.66338 0.0195312 40.6 335 3024 7.62627 0.0195312 57.1 336 3033 7.62042 0.0390625 36.3 337 3042 7.38548 0.00976562 445 338 3051 6.99408 0.00976562 240 339 3060 6.87627 0.0195312 140 340 3069 6.87627 0.0390625 140 341 3078 6.85102 0.00976562 52.4 342 3087 6.83986 0.00976562 74.3 343 3096 6.82875 0.00976562 33.5 344 3105 6.81604 0.00976562 120 345 3114 6.79479 0.00976562 33.4 346 3123 6.66892 0.00976562 472 347 3132 6.50591 0.0195312 72.9 348 3141 6.50591 0.0390625 72.9 349 3150 6.4791 0.00976562 46.4 350 3159 6.4791 0.0195312 46.4 351 3168 6.47048 0.00488281 32 352 3177 6.46542 0.00976562 35.5 353 3186 6.45182 0.00976562 34.1 354 3195 6.45083 0.0195312 31.5 355 3204 6.43438 0.00488281 37.5 356 3213 6.41416 0.00976562 31.7 357 3222 6.41416 0.0195312 31.7 358 3231 6.40703 0.00488281 40.2 359 3240 6.40187 0.00976562 31.5 360 3249 6.38888 0.00976562 51.6 361 3258 6.3863 0.0195312 31.3 362 3267 6.36741 0.00488281 60.4 363 3276 6.34461 0.00976562 31.4 364 3285 6.34461 0.0195312 31.4 365 3294 6.33646 0.00488281 59.8 366 3303 6.3292 0.00976562 31.2 367 3312 6.31413 0.00976562 74.8 368 3321 6.30763 0.0195312 31 369 3330 6.25677 0.0195312 121 370 3339 6.2453 0.0390625 30.4 371 3348 6.09471 0.0390625 361 372 3357 6.09471 0.0390625 361 373 3366 6.09471 0.00976562 361 374 3375 6.09471 0.00244141 361 375 3384 5.78147 0.000610352 161 376 3393 5.74648 0.0012207 82.1 377 3402 5.73556 0.00244141 34.4 378 3411 5.7299 0.00488281 38.6 379 3420 5.72621 0.00488281 28.7 380 3429 5.72154 0.00488281 29.6 381 3438 5.718 0.00488281 36.4 382 3447 5.71313 0.00488281 28.6 383 3456 5.70918 0.00488281 45.1 384 3465 5.70372 0.00488281 28.6 385 3474 5.69891 0.00488281 55.4 386 3483 5.6924 0.00488281 28.5 387 3492 5.69145 0.00976562 83.4 388 3501 5.68049 0.00244141 28.6 389 3510 5.6662 0.00488281 83.1 390 3519 5.6586 0.00976562 28.1 391 3528 5.63772 0.00976562 101 392 3537 5.63186 0.0195312 28 393 3546 5.5883 0.0195312 155 394 3555 5.58403 0.0390625 47.3 395 3564 5.54098 0.00976562 41.7 396 3573 5.48869 0.0195312 35.6 397 3582 5.48869 0.0390625 35.6 398 3591 5.48124 0.00976562 30.8 399 3600 5.47931 0.00976562 27.5 400 3609 5.47148 0.00976562 46.3 401 3618 5.4685 0.00976562 27.5 402 3627 5.45836 0.00976562 69.6 403 3636 5.45236 0.00976562 27.4 404 3645 5.43256 0.00976562 123 405 3654 5.42123 0.0195312 27 406 3663 5.37386 0.0195312 182 407 3672 5.35293 0.0390625 32.7 408 3681 5.35293 0.0390625 32.7 409 3690 5.31802 0.00976562 37.2 410 3699 5.27285 0.0195312 27.7 411 3708 5.27285 0.0390625 27.7 412 3717 5.2681 0.00976562 36.8 413 3726 5.26604 0.00976562 26.6 414 3735 5.25945 0.00244141 49 415 3744 5.25296 0.00488281 26.6 416 3753 5.24948 0.00976562 39.4 417 3762 5.23936 0.00976562 26.6 418 3771 5.23936 0.0195312 26.6 419 3780 5.23516 0.00488281 35.2 420 3789 5.23124 0.00976562 26.6 421 3798 5.22737 0.00976562 30.3 422 3807 5.22268 0.00976562 26.6 423 3816 5.21885 0.00976562 26.5 424 3825 5.21381 0.00976562 26.5 425 3834 5.21017 0.00976562 26.3 426 3843 5.20475 0.00976562 29.5 427 3852 5.20114 0.00976562 26.2 428 3861 5.19502 0.00976562 37.8 429 3870 5.19098 0.00976562 26.2 430 3879 5.18302 0.00976562 53.9 431 3888 5.18126 0.0195312 26 432 3897 5.13172 0.00488281 156 433 3906 5.07797 0.00976562 25.7 434 3915 5.07797 0.0195312 25.7 435 3924 5.07434 0.00488281 39.9 436 3933 5.07037 0.00976562 25.6 437 3942 5.06171 0.00976562 57.5 438 3951 5.05918 0.0195312 25.4 439 3960 4.9423 0.00488281 258 440 3969 4.81227 0.00976562 32.9 441 3978 4.81227 0.0195312 32.9 442 3987 4.80814 0.00488281 26.6 443 3996 4.8059 0.00976562 24.2 444 4005 4.79911 0.00976562 33 445 4014 4.79911 0.0195312 33 446 4023 4.79552 0.00488281 24.2 447 4032 4.79316 0.00976562 39.8 448 4041 4.78874 0.00976562 24.2 449 4050 4.78405 0.00976562 48.2 450 4059 4.77789 0.00976562 24.1 451 4068 4.76799 0.00976562 87 452 4077 4.75903 0.0195312 24 453 4086 4.71815 0.0195312 267 454 4095 4.66225 0.0195312 46.6 455 4104 4.63996 0.0195312 23.8 456 4113 4.63996 0.0390625 23.8 457 4122 4.6325 0.00976562 24.3 458 4131 4.62635 0.00976562 36.2 459 4140 4.62148 0.00976562 23.3 460 4149 4.61737 0.00976562 27.1 461 4158 4.61345 0.00976562 23.3 462 4167 4.60875 0.00976562 35.6 463 4176 4.60431 0.00976562 23.3 464 4185 4.59772 0.00976562 52.7 465 4194 4.59317 0.0195312 23.1 466 4203 4.46385 0.0195312 377 467 4212 4.25844 0.0195312 40.7 468 4221 4.25844 0.0390625 40.7 469 4230 4.24573 0.00976562 26.3 470 4239 4.24573 0.0195312 26.3 471 4248 4.24226 0.00488281 21.5 472 4257 4.2408 0.00976562 21.2 473 4266 4.2342 0.00976562 21.5 474 4275 4.2342 0.0195312 21.5 475 4284 4.232 0.00488281 21.3 476 4293 4.22932 0.00976562 21.5 477 4302 4.2264 0.00976562 21.2 478 4311 4.2234 0.00976562 22.8 479 4320 4.22046 0.00976562 21.2 480 4329 4.21704 0.00976562 27.8 481 4338 4.2139 0.00976562 21.2 482 4347 4.20963 0.00976562 36.9 483 4356 4.20575 0.00976562 21.2 484 4365 4.19889 0.00976562 57.2 485 4374 4.19446 0.0195312 21 486 4383 3.31127 0.0195312 65.8 487 4392 3.31127 0.0390625 65.8 488 4401 3.30141 0.00976562 25.4 489 4410 3.30141 0.0195312 25.4 490 4419 3.30038 0.00488281 16.5 491 4428 3.29925 0.00488281 16.1 492 4437 3.29834 0.00488281 20.9 493 4446 3.29712 0.00488281 16.1 494 4455 3.29592 0.00488281 27.5 495 4464 3.29441 0.00488281 16.1 496 4473 3.29263 0.00488281 36.1 497 4482 3.2905 0.00488281 16 498 4491 3.28744 0.00488281 49.6 499 4500 3.28531 0.00976562 15.9 500 4509 3.18175 0.00976562 389 501 4518 3.07192 0.0195312 64.6 502 4527 3.07192 0.0390625 64.6 503 4536 3.05362 0.00976562 16.7 504 4545 3.05362 0.0195312 16.7 505 4554 3.0505 0.00488281 14.5 506 4563 3.04865 0.00976562 14.7 507 4572 3.04865 0.00976562 14.7 508 4581 3.04738 0.00244141 14.6 509 4590 3.04676 0.00488281 14.7 510 4599 3.04546 0.00488281 17.7 511 4608 3.04477 0.00488281 14.6 512 4617 3.04331 0.00488281 21.8 513 4626 3.04246 0.00488281 14.6 514 4635 3.04071 0.00488281 26.8 515 4644 3.03956 0.00488281 14.6 516 4653 3.03731 0.00488281 33.6 517 4662 3.03694 0.00976562 14.5 518 4671 3.02958 0.00244141 61.6 519 4680 3.02171 0.00488281 14.5 520 4689 3.02171 0.00976562 14.5 521 4698 3.01696 0.00244141 60 522 4707 3.01276 0.00488281 14.5 523 4716 3.01089 0.00976562 51 524 4725 3.0086 0.00976562 14.4 525 4734 3.00455 0.00976562 59.1 526 4743 3.00172 0.00976562 16.8 527 4752 2.99952 0.00976562 27.1 528 4761 2.99882 0.00976562 14.4 529 4770 2.99648 0.00244141 30 530 4779 2.99417 0.00488281 14.4 531 4788 2.99342 0.00976562 26.4 532 4797 2.9892 0.00976562 14.4 533 4806 2.9892 0.0195312 14.4 534 4815 2.98768 0.00488281 28.4 535 4824 2.98603 0.00976562 14.4 536 4833 2.98351 0.00976562 33.6 537 4842 2.98083 0.00976562 14.4 538 4851 2.97745 0.00976562 47.5 539 4860 2.97337 0.00976562 14.4 540 4869 2.96959 0.00976562 43.7 541 4878 2.96607 0.00976562 14.3 542 4887 2.9647 0.00976562 31.3 543 4896 2.96207 0.00976562 14.3 544 4905 2.96086 0.00976562 19.9 545 4914 2.95856 0.00976562 14.3 546 4923 2.95748 0.00976562 22.4 547 4932 2.95501 0.00976562 14.3 548 4941 2.95392 0.00976562 21.7 549 4950 2.95134 0.00976562 14.3 550 4959 2.95027 0.00976562 22.1 551 4968 2.94759 0.00976562 14.3 552 4977 2.94656 0.00976562 21.8 553 4986 2.94381 0.00976562 14.2 554 4995 2.94283 0.00976562 21.5 555 5004 2.94003 0.00976562 14.2 Solver stopped prematurely. lsqnonlin stopped because it exceeded the function evaluation limit, options.MaxFunctionEvaluations = 5.000000e+03. Stage 1 Iteration 1: value of minimized moment distance objective function: 2.9400343571. Computing standard errors using numerical derivatives of moments RESULTS FROM SMM (STAGE 1) ESTIMATION parameters Estimate s.d. t-stat rhoa 0.7900 1.5541 0.5083 phipie 1.6726 6.0574 0.2761 rho 0.5968 3.2799 0.1820 psi 0.2086 2.2967 0.0908 phiy -0.2909 20.6861 0.0141 rhou 0.9991 2.4510 0.4077 stdeva 0.0076 0.0218 0.3493 stdevj 0.0418 8.4888 0.0049 Estimation stage 2 - optimal weighting matrix (Bartlett kernel with 20 lags) and using previous stage estimate of model-moments Norm of First-order Iteration Func-count f(x) step optimality 0 9 0.0488847 5.2 1 18 0.0488847 10 5.2 2 27 0.0488847 2.5 5.2 3 36 0.0488847 0.625 5.2 4 45 0.0479407 0.15625 6.63 5 54 0.0440178 0.0390625 2.32 6 63 0.0374099 0.078125 3.08 7 72 0.0374099 0.15625 3.08 8 81 0.0374099 0.0390625 3.08 9 90 0.0374099 0.00976562 3.08 10 99 0.0364833 0.00244141 3.09 11 108 0.0364833 0.00488281 3.09 12 117 0.0358868 0.0012207 1.96 13 126 0.0354578 0.00244141 2.19 14 135 0.0354578 0.00488281 2.19 15 144 0.0351751 0.0012207 1.29 16 153 0.0351751 0.00244141 1.29 17 162 0.0349778 0.000610352 1.54 18 171 0.0349778 0.0012207 1.54 19 180 0.0348443 0.000305176 0.842 20 189 0.0347489 0.000610352 1.09 21 198 0.0347489 0.0012207 1.09 22 207 0.0346828 0.000305176 0.557 23 216 0.0346828 0.000610352 0.557 24 225 0.0346351 0.000152588 0.784 25 234 0.0346001 0.000305176 0.372 26 243 0.0346001 0.000610352 0.372 27 252 0.0345738 0.000152588 0.59 28 261 0.0345532 0.000305176 0.249 29 270 0.0345532 0.000610352 0.249 30 279 0.0345368 0.000152588 0.473 31 288 0.0345368 0.000305176 0.473 32 297 0.0345233 7.62939e-05 0.213 33 306 0.0345113 0.000152588 0.41 34 315 0.0345113 0.000305176 0.41 35 324 0.0345007 7.62939e-05 0.213 36 333 0.0344907 0.000152588 0.378 37 342 0.0344907 0.000305176 0.378 38 351 0.0344813 7.62939e-05 0.212 39 360 0.0344813 0.000152588 0.212 40 369 0.0344724 3.8147e-05 0.362 41 378 0.0344724 7.62939e-05 0.362 42 387 0.0344637 2.06745e-05 0.211 43 396 0.0344551 3.8147e-05 0.354 44 405 0.0344465 7.62939e-05 0.211 45 414 0.0344465 0.000152588 0.211 46 423 0.0344381 3.8147e-05 0.35 47 432 0.0344381 7.62939e-05 0.35 48 441 0.0344297 2.0268e-05 0.211 49 450 0.0344213 3.8147e-05 0.348 50 459 0.0344213 7.62939e-05 0.348 51 468 0.034413 2.02003e-05 0.21 52 477 0.0344047 3.8147e-05 0.347 53 486 0.0344047 7.62939e-05 0.347 54 495 0.0344047 2.01566e-05 0.347 55 504 0.0344012 4.76837e-06 0.235 56 513 0.0344012 9.53674e-06 0.235 57 522 0.0343998 2.38419e-06 0.207 58 531 0.0343998 4.76837e-06 0.207 59 540 0.0343991 1.19209e-06 0.208 Local minimum possible. lsqnonlin stopped because the final change in the sum of squares relative to its initial value is less than the value of the function tolerance. <stopping criteria details> Stage 2 Iteration 1: value of minimized moment distance objective function: 0.0343991188. Computing standard errors using numerical derivatives of moments [Warning: Cannot compute the Jacobian using finite differences for parameter rhou - no standard errors available Blanchard & Kahn conditions are not satisfied: no stable equilibrium. Check your priors or use a different optimizer. ] [> In mom.standard_errors (line 101) In mom.run (line 940) In RCG_2014.driver (line 373) In dynare (line 278)] RESULTS FROM SMM (STAGE 2) ESTIMATION parameters Estimate s.d. t-stat rhoa 0.7790 NaN NaN phipie 1.6857 NaN NaN rho 0.5964 NaN NaN psi 0.2175 NaN NaN phiy -0.3357 NaN NaN rhou 1.0000 NaN NaN stdeva 0.0070 NaN NaN stdevj 0.0324 NaN NaN Comparison of data moments and model moments (SMM) Moment Data Model E[R*R] 0.0000965 0.0000640 E[y_obs*y_obs] 0.0001654 0.0001496 E[pie*pie] 0.0000374 0.0000489 E[R*y_obs] 0.0000119 -0.0000069 E[pie*y_obs] 0.0000048 0.0000204 E[y_obs*y_obs(-1)] 0.0001531 0.0000965 E[R(-1)*R] 0.0000926 0.0000552 E[pie*pie(-1)] 0.0000185 0.0000215 LOCAL MINIMUM CHECK Fval obtained by the minimization routine: 0.034399 ==== Method of Moments Estimation (SMM) Completed ==== Total computing time : 0h00m50s