Starting Dynare (version 5.4).
Calling Dynare with arguments: none
Starting preprocessing of the model file ...
WARNING: in the 'steady_state_model' block, variable 'ZTILHAT' is not assigned a value
Substitution of endo leads >= 2: added 41 auxiliary variables and equations.
Substitution of endo lags >= 2: added 1 auxiliary variables and equations.
Substitution of exo lags: added 5 auxiliary variables and equations.
Found 128 equation(s).
Evaluating expressions...done
Computing static model derivatives (order 1).
Computing dynamic model derivatives (order 2).
Processing outputs ...
done
Preprocessing completed.
STEADY-STATE RESULTS:
B_F 0
B_M 0
CFM 0
DABS 0
DPC 0
DPQ 0
DPX 0
DPM 0
DW 0
DPCLONG 0
ERCHANGE 0
FINSPREAD 0
FXI 0
GDP_GAP 0
LAMC 0
MCX 0
MCM 0
MGSNIF 0
MGSNI 0
MGSNID 0
MGSNIX 0
NFA 0
RELPXPS 0
RELPMPD 0
RERPC 0
RERPQ 0
RNX 0
RS 0
RSS 0
RLONG10Y 0
RR 0
SHOCK_DABS 0
SHOCK_MGSNIX 0
SHOCK_MGSNID 0
SHOCK_GOV 0
SHOCK_DPQ 0
SHOCK_DPM 0
SHOCK_DW 0
SHOCK_RS 0
SHOCK_RERPQ 0
SHOCK_FINSPR 0
SHOCK_FXI 0
NTBY 0
ZETAP 0
ZETAC 0
LE 0
ZTILHAT 0
SHOCK_MUZ 0
SHOCK_ZTEMP 0
expERCHANGE 0
DABS_F 0
DPQ_F 0
DW_F 0
GDP_GAP_F 0
RS_F 0
RR_F 0
LAMC_F 0
SHOCK_DABS_F 0
SHOCK_GOV_F 0
SHOCK_DPQ_F 0
SHOCK_DW_F 0
SHOCK_RS_F 0
ZETAP_F 0
LE_F 0
SHOCK_MUZ_F 0
SHOCK_ZTEMP_F 0
DPCobs 3
DWobs 4.42461
RSobs 4.46476
RLONG10Yobs 6.46476
DPQobs_F 2
DWobs_F 3.42461
RSobs_F 3.46476
DYobs 0.356153
DYTOTobs 0.356153
POPgrow 0
DGobs 0.356153
DXobs 0.356153
DMobs 0.356153
DYobs_F 0.356153
DGobs_F 0.356153
Residuals of the static equations:
Equation number 1 : 0 : Dynamic IS Curve
Equation number 2 : 0 : Growth adjusted Long-Term Real Rate
Equation number 3 : 0 : Export demand, total
Equation number 4 : 0 : Import demand, total (below 11)
Equation number 5 : 0 : Import demand, direct domestic use in consumption
Equation number 6 : 0 : Export demand, imported foreign intermediate inputs
Equation number 7 : 0 : Nominal trade balance (36)
Equation number 8 : 0 : Trade balance (GDP share)
Equation number 9 : 0 : Net Foreign Assets (35)
Equation number 10 : 0 : Uncovered interest parity (A.2.1)
Equation number 11 : 0 : New Keynesian Phillips Curve, consumer price inflation (29)
Equation number 12 : 0 : New Keynesian Phillips curve, home inflation (14) and (16), (17)
Equation number 13 : 0 : New Keynesian Phillips curve, exported goods inflation (24)
Equation number 14 : 0 : New Keynesian Phillips curve, imported goods inflation (24)
Equation number 15 : 0 : Wage Phillips curve, home (20) and (21), (22)
Equation number 16 : 0 : Exchange rate effect on average consumer price inflation, moving average (22)
Equation number 17 : 0 : expERCHANGE
Equation number 18 : 0 : Marginal cost of exported goods
Equation number 19 : 0 : Marginal cost of imported goods
Equation number 20 : 0 : Relative price exported goods
Equation number 21 : 0 : Relative price imported good to domestic goods
Equation number 22 : 0 : Real product wage
Equation number 23 : 0 : Real consumption wage (19)
Equation number 24 : 0 : Monetary policy rule (37)
Equation number 25 : 0 : Definition, short-term borrowing rate (-)
Equation number 26 : 0 : Definition, long-term nominal interest rate (-)
Equation number 27 : 0 : Definition, short-term real interest rate (-)
Equation number 28 : 0 : Long real interest rate (discounted) (3)
Equation number 29 : 0 : Definition, consumption-based real exchange rate (-)
Equation number 30 : 0 : Definition, change in the nominal exchange rate (increase = depreciation) (-)
Equation number 31 : 0 : Funds intermediated by financiers (34a)
Equation number 32 : 0 : FXI rule equation (40)
Equation number 33 : 0 : Central bank reserves (38)
Equation number 34 : 0 : CFM equation / not active here (-)
Equation number 35 : 0 : Production function (-)
Equation number 36 : 0 : Private risk premium shock (7)
Equation number 37 : 0 : Domestic demand shock (4)
Equation number 38 : 0 : Export demand shock (10)
Equation number 39 : 0 : Import demand shock (-)
Equation number 40 : 0 : Government spending shock
Equation number 41 : 0 : Domestic price-cost push shock
Equation number 42 : 0 : Imported price cost-push shock
Equation number 43 : 0 : Wage markup (labor supply) shock
Equation number 44 : 0 : Interest rate policy shock
Equation number 45 : 0 : UIP Risk-premium shock (B_P)
Equation number 46 : 0 : Domestic Risk Premium Shock
Equation number 47 : 0 : FXI Shock (iid)
Equation number 48 : 0 : Permanent technology shock (-)
Equation number 49 : 0 : Relative productivity gap (-)
Equation number 50 : 0 : Stationary technology shock (-)
Equation number 51 : 0 : Foreign economy, IS Curve (44)
Equation number 52 : 0 : Growth adjusted Long-Term Real Rate (-)
Equation number 53 : 0 : Domestic Absorption (-)
Equation number 54 : 0 : Foreign economy, Phillips Curve (47)
Equation number 55 : 0 : Production function (-)
Equation number 56 : 0 : Foreign economy, wage Phillips curve (49)
Equation number 57 : 0 : Foreign economy, real wage (48)
Equation number 58 : 0 : Foreign economy, monetary policy rule (50)
Equation number 59 : 0 : Foreign economy, short term real interest rate (-)
Equation number 60 : 0 : Foreign economy, IS curve, forcing process (not documented)
Equation number 61 : 0 : Foreign economy, price inflation forcing process, ARMA(1,1) (-)
Equation number 62 : 0 : Foreign economy, monetary policy rule, forcing process (-)
Equation number 63 : 0 : Foreign economy, wage inflation forcing process, ARMA(1,1) (-)
Equation number 64 : 0 : Foreign economy, government spending forcing process (-)
Equation number 65 : 0 : Permanent technology shock, forcing process (-)
Equation number 66 : 0 : Stationary technology shock, forcing process (-)
Equation number 67 : 0 : Measurement equation, home core CPI inflation (annualized)
Equation number 68 : 0 : Measurement equation, home nominal wage growth (annualized)
Equation number 69 : 0 : Measurement equation, home policy rate (annualized)
Equation number 70 : 0 : Measurement equation, home long-term nominal yield (annualized)
Equation number 71 : 0 : THA output per capita growth (quarterly rate)
Equation number 72 : 0 : THA govt spending per capita growth (quarterly rate)
Equation number 73 : 0 : THA exports per capita growth (quarterly rate)
Equation number 74 : 0 : THA imports per capita growth (quarterly rate)
Equation number 75 : 0 : Measurement equation, foreign core PCE inflation(annualized)
Equation number 76 : 0 : Measurement equation, foreign policy rate (annualized)
Equation number 77 : 0 : Measurement equation, foreign nominal wage growth (annualized)
Equation number 78 : 0 : U.S. output per capita growth (quarterly rate)
Equation number 79 : 0 : U.S. govt spending per capita growth (quarterly rate)
Equation number 80 : 0 : PHL output growth (quarterly rate)
Equation number 81 : 0 : PHL working age population growth (quarterly rate)
EIGENVALUES:
Modulus Real Imaginary
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
4.823e-27 -4.823e-27 0
3.415e-20 3.415e-20 0
6.564e-18 -6.564e-18 0
5.409e-17 5.409e-17 0
1.133e-16 -1.133e-16 0
1.767e-16 1.767e-16 0
4.145e-16 -4.145e-16 0
0.08015 0.08015 0
0.2564 0.2564 0
0.3001 0.3001 0
0.5051 0.5051 0
0.5055 0.5055 0
0.6378 0.6378 0
0.7 0.7 0
0.75 0.75 0
0.8 0.8 0
0.8 0.8 0
0.8 0.8 0
0.8178 0.8178 0
0.8179 0.8179 0
0.8623 0.8614 0.03888
0.8623 0.8614 -0.03888
0.866 0.85 0.1658
0.866 0.85 -0.1658
0.879 0.879 0
0.8931 0.8857 0.1149
0.8931 0.8857 -0.1149
0.9 0.9 0
0.9 0.9 0
0.906 0.906 0
0.9097 0.9097 0.009204
0.9097 0.9097 -0.009204
0.9155 0.9155 0
0.9387 0.9367 0.06071
0.9387 0.9367 -0.06071
0.9487 0.945 0.08352
0.9487 0.945 -0.08352
0.9487 0.9487 0
0.9802 0.9802 0
0.9899 0.9899 0
1.037 1.037 0
1.045 1.045 0
1.055 1.054 0.04329
1.055 1.054 -0.04329
1.067 1.067 0
1.117 1.117 0.0289
1.117 1.117 -0.0289
1.134 1.134 0.02518
1.134 1.134 -0.02518
2.539 2.53 0.2097
2.539 2.53 -0.2097
2.542 2.464 0.6243
2.542 2.464 -0.6243
2.548 2.333 1.025
2.548 2.333 -1.025
2.557 2.139 1.401
2.557 2.139 -1.401
2.569 1.885 1.745
2.569 1.885 -1.745
2.582 1.577 2.044
2.582 1.577 -2.044
2.593 1.218 2.289
2.593 1.218 -2.289
2.598 -1.258 2.273
2.598 -1.258 -2.273
2.598 -1.61 2.038
2.598 -1.61 -2.038
2.598 -0.8722 2.447
2.598 -0.8722 -2.447
2.598 -1.921 1.75
2.598 -1.921 -1.75
2.6 -0.4613 2.558
2.6 -0.4613 -2.558
2.6 -2.181 1.415
2.6 -2.181 -1.415
2.6 0.8196 2.468
2.6 0.8196 -2.468
2.601 -0.03479 2.601
2.601 -0.03479 -2.601
2.602 -2.385 1.041
2.602 -2.385 -1.041
2.602 0.3966 2.572
2.602 0.3966 -2.572
2.604 -2.525 0.6369
2.604 -2.525 -0.6369
2.605 -2.597 0.2144
2.605 -2.597 -0.2144
4.636 1.738 4.298
4.636 1.738 -4.298
6.397 -6.397 0
113.1 -113.1 0
3.279e+33 -3.279e+33 0
1.328e+34 1.328e+34 0
2.964e+36 2.964e+36 0
Inf -Inf 0
There are 55 eigenvalue(s) larger than 1 in modulus
for 55 forward-looking variable(s)
The rank condition is verified.
You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command.
Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -3472.0896
First-order Norm of
Iter F-count f(x) Feasibility optimality step
0 41 3.472090e+03 0.000e+00 2.345e+03
1 84 3.431068e+03 0.000e+00 2.945e+03 2.838e+00
2 125 3.422128e+03 0.000e+00 4.239e+03 1.221e+00
3 168 3.379198e+03 0.000e+00 2.913e+03 2.738e+00
4 210 3.361628e+03 0.000e+00 2.682e+03 7.281e-01
5 252 3.331199e+03 0.000e+00 2.745e+03 1.038e+00
6 294 3.320564e+03 0.000e+00 2.403e+03 5.962e-01
7 336 3.315315e+03 0.000e+00 2.065e+03 3.531e-01
8 379 3.293995e+03 0.000e+00 2.254e+03 2.150e+00
9 422 3.288113e+03 0.000e+00 2.195e+03 1.040e+00
10 466 3.283027e+03 0.000e+00 2.110e+03 7.021e-01
11 508 3.278226e+03 0.000e+00 1.713e+03 2.593e-01
12 551 3.270387e+03 0.000e+00 1.656e+03 9.489e-01
13 593 3.266429e+03 0.000e+00 1.567e+03 9.021e-01
14 635 3.264562e+03 0.000e+00 1.305e+03 7.615e-01
15 678 3.263498e+03 0.000e+00 9.645e+02 7.598e-01
16 721 3.262792e+03 0.000e+00 9.602e+02 1.025e+00
17 763 3.259516e+03 0.000e+00 1.556e+03 8.716e-01
18 805 3.258690e+03 0.000e+00 1.587e+03 4.831e-01
19 847 3.249156e+03 0.000e+00 1.614e+03 1.499e+00
20 889 3.245309e+03 0.000e+00 1.576e+03 7.462e-01
21 931 3.239165e+03 0.000e+00 1.426e+03 1.082e+00
22 974 3.234886e+03 0.000e+00 1.306e+03 4.152e-01
23 1016 3.230600e+03 0.000e+00 1.102e+03 7.850e-01
24 1059 3.222536e+03 0.000e+00 1.012e+03 1.098e+00
25 1101 3.219180e+03 0.000e+00 9.320e+02 7.545e-01
26 1142 3.213650e+03 0.000e+00 7.966e+02 1.117e+00
Objective function returned Inf; trying a new point...
27 1185 3.209185e+03 0.000e+00 8.696e+02 4.493e-01
28 1228 3.190257e+03 0.000e+00 7.040e+02 1.360e+00
29 1271 3.189116e+03 0.000e+00 4.455e+02 3.773e-01
30 1315 3.187545e+03 0.000e+00 4.105e+02 2.435e-01
First-order Norm of
Iter F-count f(x) Feasibility optimality step
31 1357 3.186012e+03 0.000e+00 4.630e+02 4.344e-01
32 1399 3.185346e+03 0.000e+00 6.780e+02 3.996e-01
33 1443 3.183912e+03 0.000e+00 7.717e+02 2.075e-01
34 1486 3.181333e+03 0.000e+00 8.359e+02 2.152e-01
35 1530 3.180958e+03 0.000e+00 8.154e+02 2.255e-01
36 1572 3.179629e+03 0.000e+00 5.098e+02 2.811e-01
37 1615 3.179397e+03 0.000e+00 2.114e+02 1.466e-01
38 1657 3.179118e+03 0.000e+00 2.580e+02 5.987e-01
39 1701 3.178684e+03 0.000e+00 3.290e+02 1.637e-01
40 1744 3.177787e+03 0.000e+00 3.081e+02 3.560e-01
41 1787 3.175903e+03 0.000e+00 4.262e+02 3.650e-01
42 1829 3.174294e+03 0.000e+00 2.571e+02 3.585e-01
43 1872 3.173939e+03 0.000e+00 9.159e+01 1.810e-01
44 1915 3.173818e+03 0.000e+00 8.807e+01 1.497e-01
45 1958 3.173647e+03 0.000e+00 1.333e+02 2.724e-01
46 2001 3.173018e+03 0.000e+00 1.898e+02 1.553e-01
47 2045 3.172675e+03 0.000e+00 2.855e+02 1.530e-01
48 2088 3.172596e+03 0.000e+00 1.267e+02 1.302e-01
49 2135 3.172272e+03 0.000e+00 1.086e+02 7.898e-02
50 2178 3.172206e+03 0.000e+00 9.178e+01 6.794e-02
51 2221 3.171963e+03 0.000e+00 3.844e+01 8.874e-02
52 2265 3.171938e+03 0.000e+00 8.406e+01 6.593e-02
53 2309 3.171798e+03 0.000e+00 1.746e+02 5.314e-02
54 2353 3.171728e+03 0.000e+00 1.331e+02 4.497e-02
55 2397 3.171524e+03 0.000e+00 1.082e+02 6.546e-02
56 2441 3.171509e+03 0.000e+00 6.321e+01 5.382e-02
57 2487 3.171341e+03 0.000e+00 1.304e+01 9.595e-02
58 2530 3.171231e+03 0.000e+00 1.444e+02 3.899e-02
59 2574 3.171190e+03 0.000e+00 2.376e+02 9.280e-02
60 2618 3.170999e+03 0.000e+00 2.085e+02 1.120e-01
First-order Norm of
Iter F-count f(x) Feasibility optimality step
61 2660 3.170865e+03 0.000e+00 2.792e+02 1.049e-01
62 2703 3.170524e+03 0.000e+00 1.198e+02 1.183e-01
63 2745 3.170203e+03 0.000e+00 8.179e+01 1.132e-01
64 2788 3.169522e+03 0.000e+00 1.220e+02 1.498e-01
65 2829 3.169453e+03 0.000e+00 1.116e+02 1.025e-01
66 2876 3.169268e+03 0.000e+00 6.572e+01 1.044e-01
67 2919 3.169238e+03 0.000e+00 3.576e+01 6.893e-02
68 2963 3.169223e+03 0.000e+00 8.062e+01 8.398e-02
69 3004 3.169101e+03 0.000e+00 1.726e+01 4.110e-02
70 3045 3.169095e+03 0.000e+00 1.974e+01 4.298e-02
71 3086 3.169071e+03 0.000e+00 3.582e+00 2.201e-02
72 3127 3.169070e+03 0.000e+00 4.228e+00 6.266e-03
73 3168 3.169070e+03 0.000e+00 1.607e+00 5.118e-03
74 3209 3.169067e+03 0.000e+00 3.648e-01 1.249e-03
75 3250 3.169066e+03 0.000e+00 2.784e-01 1.046e-03
76 3291 3.169066e+03 0.000e+00 7.293e-02 3.429e-04
77 3333 3.169066e+03 0.000e+00 5.437e-02 1.072e-04
78 3374 3.169066e+03 0.000e+00 6.986e-02 1.816e-04
79 3415 3.169066e+03 0.000e+00 2.704e-02 1.033e-04
80 3456 3.169066e+03 0.000e+00 1.839e-02 1.088e-04
81 3506 3.169066e+03 0.000e+00 1.355e-02 7.185e-06
82 3549 3.169066e+03 0.000e+00 1.312e-02 3.472e-06
Local minimum possible. Constraints satisfied.
fmincon stopped because the size of the current step is less than
the value of the step size tolerance and constraints are
satisfied to within the value of the constraint tolerance.
<stopping criteria details>
Final value of minus the log posterior (or likelihood):3169.065779
POSTERIOR KERNEL OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM!
(minus) the hessian matrix at the "mode" is not positive definite!
=> posterior variance of the estimated parameters are not positive.
You should try to change the initial values of the parameters using
the estimated_params_init block, or use another optimization routine.
[Warning: The results below are most likely wrong!]
[> In dynare_estimation_1 (line 318)
In dynare_estimation (line 118)
In MWE.driver (line 1704)
In dynare (line 278)]
[Warning: Matrix is singular, close to singular or badly scaled. Results may
be inaccurate. RCOND = NaN.]
[> In dynare_estimation_1 (line 341)
In dynare_estimation (line 118)
In MWE.driver (line 1704)
In dynare (line 278)
]
RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION
parameters
prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev
xi_m 0.7500 0.7824 NaN beta 0.0500
xi_p 0.7500 0.9611 NaN beta 0.0500
xi_w 0.7500 0.8005 NaN beta 0.0500
xi_x 0.7500 0.7714 NaN beta 0.0500
index_m 0.7000 0.7214 NaN beta 0.2000
index_p 0.7000 0.5853 NaN beta 0.2000
index_x 0.7000 0.6082 NaN beta 0.2000
index_w 0.7000 0.3810 NaN beta 0.2000
h 0.7000 0.3125 NaN beta 0.1500
phi_disc 0.9850 0.9631 NaN norm 0.0075
gamma_parm 0.0500 0.0128 NaN beta 0.0125
nu 0.1000 0.1597 NaN beta 0.0500
gamma_dpc 1.0000 0.9431 NaN norm 0.3400
gamma_gdpgap 0.1250 0.1107 NaN beta 0.0500
gamma_rs 0.7500 0.8660 NaN beta 0.0500
fxi_parm 0.5000 0.7237 NaN beta 0.1250
rho_fxi 0.5000 0.4458 NaN beta 0.1500
bm_parm 0.0500 0.0041 NaN beta 0.0250
rho_finspr 0.8500 0.9299 NaN beta 0.0500
rho_shk_dabs 0.8500 0.9222 NaN beta 0.0500
rho_shk_gov 0.8500 0.9244 NaN beta 0.0500
rho_shk_mgsnid 0.8500 0.8916 NaN beta 0.0500
rho_shk_mgsnix 0.8500 0.9388 NaN beta 0.0500
rho_shk_rerpq 0.8500 0.9582 NaN beta 0.0500
rho_shk_ztemp 0.8500 0.8509 NaN beta 0.0500
rho_shk_muz 0.7500 0.8781 NaN beta 0.1000
rho_ztil 0.0500 0.0093 NaN beta 0.0250
std_eps_dabs 0.5000 4.3291 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_dpm 0.1000 0.0464 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_dpq 0.1000 0.5250 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_dw 0.1000 1.8059 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_finspr 0.1000 0.6147 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_gov 0.5000 4.6689 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_mgsnid 1.0000 4.4250 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_mgsnix 1.0000 5.0960 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_rerpq 1.0000 0.3689 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_rs 0.1000 0.0675 NaN invg 2.0000
std_eps_fxi 0.5000 1.0092 NaN invg 1.0000
std_eps_muz 0.1000 0.2694 NaN invg 0.1000
std_eps_ztemp 0.5000 1.6447 NaN invg 1.0000
Log data density [Laplace approximation] is NaN.