Starting Dynare (version 6.4). Calling Dynare with arguments: none Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Substitution of endo leads >= 2: added 2 auxiliary variables and equations. Substitution of endo lags >= 2: added 3 auxiliary variables and equations. Found 28 equation(s). Evaluating expressions... Computing static model derivatives (order 1). Normalizing the static model... Finding the optimal block decomposition of the static model... 7 block(s) found: 6 recursive block(s) and 1 simultaneous block(s). the largest simultaneous block has 16 equation(s) and 16 feedback variable(s). Computing dynamic model derivatives (order 2). Normalizing the dynamic model... Finding the optimal block decomposition of the dynamic model... 7 block(s) found: 6 recursive block(s) and 1 simultaneous block(s). the largest simultaneous block has 16 equation(s) and 15 feedback variable(s). Preprocessing completed. Preprocessing time: 0h00m01s. You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command. Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): 1045.2441 Estimation:hssmc: Initialization... Estimation:hssmc: Searching for initial values... Estimation:hssmc: Initial values found (62.30s) #Iter. lambda ESS Acceptance rate scale resample seconds 1 0.0000 0.00000E+00 0.0000 0.000 no 62.34 2 0.0012 9.50002E+03 0.1047 0.525 no 42.84 3 0.0048 7.91650E+03 0.1924 0.503 no 39.14 4 0.0107 5.57274E+03 0.2610 0.493 no 38.60 5 0.0190 3.31874E+03 0.2400 0.495 yes 36.62 6 0.0297 8.26138E+03 0.2757 0.493 no 38.35 7 0.0428 5.22162E+03 0.2882 0.498 no 48.01 8 0.0583 2.79307E+03 0.2541 0.505 yes 36.26 9 0.0761 8.37192E+03 0.2718 0.506 no 37.32 10 0.0963 5.57429E+03 0.2797 0.510 no 36.19 11 0.1189 3.40822E+03 0.2587 0.516 yes 49.94 12 0.1439 8.85819E+03 0.2700 0.518 no 56.66 13 0.1712 6.83385E+03 0.2710 0.522 no 63.46 14 0.2010 4.91477E+03 0.2543 0.527 yes 70.92 15 0.2331 9.18405E+03 0.2650 0.527 no 57.70 16 0.2675 7.33608E+03 0.2594 0.531 no 52.42 17 0.3044 5.02129E+03 0.2446 0.533 no 43.02 18 0.3436 2.74330E+03 0.2193 0.531 yes 42.00 19 0.3853 8.97255E+03 0.2326 0.525 no 43.48 20 0.4293 6.25038E+03 0.2321 0.521 no 40.76 21 0.4756 3.29119E+03 0.2146 0.518 yes 43.98 22 0.5244 8.64160E+03 0.2449 0.511 no 41.52 23 0.5755 5.97575E+03 0.2672 0.510 no 46.52 24 0.6290 3.88474E+03 0.2879 0.513 yes 42.78 25 0.6849 9.14103E+03 0.3187 0.521 no 42.52 26 0.7432 7.68178E+03 0.3599 0.534 no 40.45 27 0.8038 6.37480E+03 0.3720 0.552 no 44.25 28 0.8668 5.33145E+03 0.3732 0.573 no 43.47 29 0.9322 4.48129E+03 0.3690 0.595 yes 40.00 30 1.0000 9.68863E+03 0.3586 0.617 no 42.08 ESTIMATION RESULTS Log data density is 1137.619666. parameters prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev pibar 1.063 1.0398 1.0303 1.0501 gamm 0.0200 b 0.990 0.9955 0.9940 0.9972 beta 0.0050 h 0.500 0.6880 0.6194 0.7580 beta 0.2000 theta 0.660 0.7994 0.7643 0.8321 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 2.0171 1.7454 2.2550 norm 0.4000 phi_y 0.125 0.0322 0.0012 0.0593 gamm 0.1000 rho_i 0.600 0.8575 0.8307 0.8842 beta 0.2000 rhoa 0.800 0.9777 0.9611 0.9958 beta 0.1000 rhoam 0.250 0.1543 0.0887 0.2208 beta 0.1000 rho_pit 0.800 0.8295 0.7547 0.9045 beta 0.1000 ra 0.500 0.3748 0.2391 0.5105 beta 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev e1 0.050 0.0738 0.0543 0.0909 invg 0.5000 e2 0.010 0.0094 0.0063 0.0121 invg 2.0000 e3 0.010 0.0056 0.0029 0.0080 invg 2.0000 e4 0.010 0.0037 0.0034 0.0040 invg 2.0000 e5 0.050 0.0487 0.0377 0.0602 invg 0.5000 Total computing time : 0h22m58s