Starting Dynare (version 5.2). Calling Dynare with arguments: none Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 81 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives (order 1). Computing dynamic model derivatives (order 1). Processing outputs ... done Preprocessing completed. ==== Method of Moments Estimation (SMM) ==== [Warning: Some of the parameters have no value (ltauss, wss, alpha1, alpha2) when using run. If these parameters are not initialized in a steadystate file or a steady_state_model-block, Dynare may not be able to solve the model. Note that simul, perfect_foresight_setup, and perfect_foresight_solver do not automatically call the steady state file.] Computing data moments. Note that NaN values in the moments (due to leads and lags or missing data) are replaced by the mean of the corresponding moment [Warning: Some of the parameters have no value (ltauss, wss, alpha1, alpha2) when using run. If these parameters are not initialized in a steadystate file or a steady_state_model-block, Dynare may not be able to solve the model. Note that simul, perfect_foresight_setup, and perfect_foresight_solver do not automatically call the steady state file.] Initial value of the moment objective function with 500.0 times identity weighting matrix: 2.7384 Time required to compute objective function once: 0.0530 seconds --------------------------------------------------- Simulated method of moments with - uncentered moments (prefilter=0) - optimizer (mode_compute=5): newrat - perturbation order: 1 - standard errors: numerical derivatives - number of matched moments: 6 - number of parameters: 6 Estimation stage 1 - optimal weighting matrix (Bartlett kernel with 20 lags) and using data-moments as initial estimate of model-moments [Warning: Matrix is close to singular or badly scaled. Results may be inaccurate. RCOND = 6.336874e-33.] [> In mom.optimal_weighting_matrix (line 68) In mom.run (line 878) In ClimateDSGE_EZ_LRR_SMM5.driver (line 888) In dynare (line 281) ] [Warning: newrat: Unknown option (UseParallel)!] [> In dynare_minimize_objective (line 313) In mom.run (line 919) In ClimateDSGE_EZ_LRR_SMM5.driver (line 888) In dynare (line 281)] Gradient norm 4.385459494192514e+41 Minimum Hessian eigenvalue Maximum Hessian eigenvalue Iteration 1 Near-singular H problem. Correct for low angle: 2.28026e-35 Predicted improvement: 48080637438008159624844008751592445785969647991856068845226486716809888137216.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 48080637438008163406405485463605938449293038635524605395889244791111680.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 5342293048667572519881855489153769993429316509262257784968376611766272.0000000 lambda = 0.11111; f = 593588116518619254014402880233133241400314453824094399370881967063040.0000000 lambda = 0.037037; f = 65954235168735472668266986692570360155590494869343822152320218562560.0000000 lambda = 0.012346; f = 7328248352081719684222224063678236097478922330418362059482776731648.0000000 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 814249816897968625158657633529658585187853096210207820436639580160.0000000 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 90472201877552072060298203424900586271867824407859570547951140864.0000000 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 10052466875283565835702347339726826791495053603980205081222971392.0000000 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 1116940763920396467849167555827118763609211863104456891345928192.0000000 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 124104529324488504039672978412577006045215377408913715301974016.0000000 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 13789392147165389337741442045841889560579486378768190589108224.0000000 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 1532154683018376771488344037782972861239022445494468779966464.0000000 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 170239409224264073331624227236650794840047898028073472229376.0000000 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 18915489913807120497999647389106929511989670483583802802176.0000000 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 2101721101534124461061167073562882547277119163717017141248.0000000 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 233524566837124925599193130658056953037918878879780438016.0000000 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 25947174093013876992453989583107162283772951714448015360.0000000 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 2883019343668209046236084395034131923071427591937196032.0000000 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 320335482629801099660222410820032286834216241261969408.0000000 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 372156380818348302302170395649425539072.0000000 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 41350786943540373122600294892286509056.0000000 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 4594609846339495644422923627060527104.0000000 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 510590168872730914480841892720279552.0000000 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 56810204709757004357432606378164224.0000000 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 6390208691648793658726914038169600.0000000 Norm of dx 2.1927e+35 Near-singular H problem. Correct for low angle: 2.28026e-39 Predicted improvement: 480806374380081569200458926548600139937390541632111762798544075816129877579399168.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 4808063743800815988195409583303088987268358276644208524877896572205674178543616.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 534229304866757206323447380552659445080782807607304038805220994346613125152768.0000000 lambda = 0.11111; f = 59358811651861926097610102363542387604194466100034693397940055218893327695872.0000000 lambda = 0.037037; f = 6595423516873546272886870756622303816935768005895453140524676946904035098624.0000000 lambda = 0.012346; f = 732824835208171841576417117242553386783740035540382345937526475686410190848.0000000 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 81424981689796864311711084819527305380649533718190909434885781227340562432.0000000 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 9047220187755209238112921219952177432001978149021128637994679402160455680.0000000 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 1005246687528356516626070391938983980266302191478044680933206275961913344.0000000 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 111694076392039642927253953815047005703930996659162333092365753363988480.0000000 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 12410452932448848192475634291079317283760981528589692375547891140263936.0000000 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 1378939214716538815760809993388440116946805765702397787733581419773952.0000000 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 153215468301837670140888380850451202621039606523847414902085608538112.0000000 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 17023940922426409456296127457655231669641365948731726242092760956928.0000000 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 1891548991380712452811895728292584565627176241812321940613764218880.0000000 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 210172110153412473971076238881890115061724183792010602739377635328.0000000 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 23352456683712491911447093810332970282645504096772663749948473344.0000000 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 2594717409301388152549859015692876498481148534783964822875668480.0000000 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 288301934366820961660116316465639403444201086778472536622497792.0000000 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 32033548262980107485456343032164325297482773841828120239276032.0000000 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 37215629310915970130958407142449729261421985792.0000000 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 4135069923435185611990559248799339576660328448.0000000 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 459452213715098654491453965320863194470678528.0000000 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 51050245968422257656191213206741779786760192.0000000 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 5672249552124881605539839955595261376462848.0000000 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 630249950314061760661761702568224110936064.0000000 Norm of dx 2.1927e+39 Predicted improvement: 85264901488292400217793862041600.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.11111; f = 69784751152054667166997484142592.0000000 lambda = 0.2148; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.14463; f = 64778916443522843662243986407424.0000000 lambda = 0.18337; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.15903; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.14601; f = 64576920239786430471002658963456.0000000 lambda = 0.15369; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.14904; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.14631; f = 64533078394086262408719439495168.0000000 lambda = 0.14794; f = 64295033271659487250434704277504.0000000 lambda = 0.14959; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 Norm of dx 4.3083 Done for param ew = 0.9993 Predicted improvement: 56579490544430856112665184436224.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 32107576005598429080093802364928.0000000 lambda = 0.64439; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.4339; f = 24569369100674346321817183977472.0000000 lambda = 0.55011; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.4771; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.43804; f = 24280749996120387910036956905472.0000000 lambda = 0.46107; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.44711; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.43894; f = 24218273144790233737548926025728.0000000 lambda = 0.44382; f = 23880083412293181436438163488768.0000000 lambda = 0.44876; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 Norm of dx 4.4727 Done for param em1 = 1.9875 Predicted improvement: 7977662690087520642157212860416.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 23881384101279763708733915398144.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 23880516971352738426600401403904.0000000 lambda = 0.11111; f = 23880227931542405412940861669376.0000000 lambda = 0.037037; f = 23880131585327818380080150740992.0000000 lambda = 0.012346; f = 23880099469965896357040348987392.0000000 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 23880088764850062524696028512256.0000000 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 23880085196478724398664407580672.0000000 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 23880084007021709267979126964224.0000000 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 23880083610535858914965481062400.0000000 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 23880083478373904293694638391296.0000000 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 23880083434319805328747130781696.0000000 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 23880083419635517002530594750464.0000000 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 23880083414740419459552781533184.0000000 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 23880083413108787832554587684864.0000000 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 23880083412564991688348482404352.0000000 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 23880083412383969501326325317632.0000000 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 23880083412323324028744154218496.0000000 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 23880083412303404607592294514688.0000000 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 23880083412296320445378440724480.0000000 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 Norm of dx 4.9996e-07 Done for param elr = 0.0001 Predicted improvement: 8500542570740298135586306260992.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 16711509692608111426910134730752.0000000 lambda = 0.64439; f = 6284730943432174620358616285184.0000000 lambda = 1.2457; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.8388; f = 58525552557493556841220669440.0000000 lambda = 1.0635; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.92232; f = 2260610977895829693507563421696.0000000 lambda = 1.0046; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.95439; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.9067; f = 1274836163320300495796369883136.0000000 lambda = 0.93502; f = 3306957241489803968055122853888.0000000 lambda = 0.96422; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 lambda = 0.94659; f = 4434877754703821149242925252608.0000000 lambda = 0.95713; f = 87709189385267267345506967224320.0000000 Norm of dx 0.35574 Done for param rhow = 0.9584 Predicted improvement: 68564667182049009664046137344.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 4992090745689857621745467392.0000000 Norm of dx 0.014842 Done for param rhocm = 0.6148 Predicted improvement: 4954105994591023552490635264.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 1048068955615518103961600.0000000 Norm of dx 0.0061044 Done for param nu1 = 0.0039 Sequence of univariate steps!! Actual dxnorm 2.1062 FVAL 1.048068955615518e+24 Improvement 8.770918833719832e+31 Ftol 1e-06 Htol 1e-06 [Warning: Matrix is close to singular or badly scaled. Results may be inaccurate. RCOND = 4.591238e-37.] [> In newrat (line 272) In dynare_minimize_objective (line 326) In mom.run (line 919) In ClimateDSGE_EZ_LRR_SMM5.driver (line 888) In dynare (line 281) ] Elapsed time for iteration 2.8467 s. Iteration 2 Near-singular H problem. Correct for low angle: 5.87101e-56 Predicted improvement: 946638616018816932347956131535124353826098800330227535625574765183585995283825860542464.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 1223770673373348741962589257066324888215191854372182130339319119872.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 135974519263705428764746693726506482723330941297202633645991395328.0000000 lambda = 0.11111; f = 15108279918189491110637429971232108166802438333278279523377348608.0000000 lambda = 0.037037; f = 1678697768687721518696143922256912780361210620752618213473255424.0000000 lambda = 0.012346; f = 186521974298635650717023834076836441035168977354097214653202432.0000000 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 20724663810959515477671365825461932507653469084237347065692160.0000000 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 2302740423439946481351861248597966069358378664803068870131712.0000000 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 255860047048882907682380941018804676428702538636223087378432.0000000 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 28428894116542558306810359256064018832358163337791221530624.0000000 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 3158766012949172448302863574369584475048599906159949774848.0000000 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 350974001438797001614746903423465297567105185846917070848.0000000 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 38997111270977451278271497945403874124559565982013587456.0000000 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 4333012363441938501590929005807265070812784659695403008.0000000 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 481445818160215502493114418735850606770734106111115264.0000000 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 53493979795579499095476716939613735948919735985373184.0000000 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 5943775532842166418472080128299762560568075078336512.0000000 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 660419503649129685129203084146104563217727387336704.0000000 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 73379944849903291424626753525352557872419048521728.0000000 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 8153327205544811023674671258621555629795949150208.0000000 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 7332390886874074475171769959539171055289135409267442673330334929853079758045184.0000000 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 814710098541564013408480808971690356695368662957549739562911173714771456294912.0000000 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 90523344282395984349158728900958211629667533133993321936824863396295474151424.0000000 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 10058149364710667427365705391869118801904091767807750805296308483932796485632.0000000 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 1117572151634518759270721568720623322346769174036114223580436449319614152704.0000000 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 124174683514946514858742984554112005070108967764753989059258617782102654976.0000000 Norm of dx 4.3172e+45 Predicted improvement: 1048067815373877404499968.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 1239311205917.1643066 Norm of dx 0.00015204 Done for param ew = 0.9991 Predicted improvement: 1239368094382.796142578 lambda = 1; f = 7335.9274317 Norm of dx 6.4973e-10 Done for param em1 = 1.9875 Predicted improvement: 107409080001802583146496.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 13186376939466548838400.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 1465152995010514518016.0000000 lambda = 0.11111; f = 162794775616179503104.0000000 lambda = 0.037037; f = 18088308470530875392.0000000 lambda = 0.012346; f = 2009812235280261632.0000000 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 223312379778808416.0000000 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 24812496241453132.0000000 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 2756940275163170.5000000 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 306323487342501.8125000 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 34036258819811.2812500 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 3781707346740.1308594 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 420186935750.1475830 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 46692618303.1851349 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 5188467647.6580582 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 574624936.7338171 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 63206339.0237639 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6841046.7953037 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 783020.4353890 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 84175.0857279 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 1048068955615518103961600.0000000 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 1048068955615518103961600.0000000 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 1048068955615518103961600.0000000 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 1048068955615518103961600.0000000 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 1048068955615518103961600.0000000 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 1048068955615518103961600.0000000 Norm of dx 4.3862e-07 Done for param elr = 0.0001 Predicted improvement: 97658428571.835403442 lambda = 1; f = 98706295928.3909302 lambda = 0.33333; f = 11053441235.9585457 lambda = 0.11111; f = 1237620814.0480812 lambda = 0.037037; f = 154795374.9090815 lambda = 0.012346; f = 149657.1387091 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 9674201.0000436 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 113277.1994263 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 100363.6820801 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 4220172.3092130 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 296182.2906580 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 11218.9253063 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 7335.9274317 Norm of dx 6.5154e-12 Done for param rhow = 0.9584 Predicted improvement: 26514123215.112384796 lambda = 1; f = 27448855370.6931229 lambda = 0.33333; f = 3676495929.8182712 lambda = 0.11111; f = 490061302.8906434 lambda = 0.037037; f = 252326409.8338335 lambda = 0.012346; f = 116284073.1880933 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 149979157.1675735 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 102516.8205913 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 11595404.6230529 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 76212073.7424928 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 20660366.0924141 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 11016271.5912718 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 7335.9274317 Norm of dx 7.0554e-12 Done for param rhocm = 0.6148 Predicted improvement: 70390556.967196971 lambda = 1; f = 241815029.7898576 lambda = 0.33333; f = 130907049.7501352 lambda = 0.11111; f = 70854024.4490163 lambda = 0.037037; f = 30849484.5829497 lambda = 0.012346; f = 6636467.7784682 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 1981427.2152341 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 33313425.9032134 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 9389383.3338284 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 1892179.0901057 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 21926785.1130681 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 59803387.6760109 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 3425983.9119254 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 8606713.9099685 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 15187880.7700662 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 107258339.7224997 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 7335.9274317 Norm of dx 7.4074e-13 Done for param nu1 = 0.0039 Sequence of univariate steps!! Actual dxnorm 0.00015204 FVAL 7335.9274 Improvement 1.048068955615518e+24 Ftol 1e-06 Htol 1e-06 [Warning: Matrix is close to singular or badly scaled. Results may be inaccurate. RCOND = 8.806783e-44.] [> In newrat (line 272) In dynare_minimize_objective (line 326) In mom.run (line 919) In ClimateDSGE_EZ_LRR_SMM5.driver (line 888) In dynare (line 281) ] Elapsed time for iteration 3.9117 s. Iteration 3 Near-singular H problem. Correct for low angle: 1.88893e-54 Predicted improvement: 217780906163210179707748123059751909744040841724211934056643589858809348096.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 28311554675648913932579746993471322083512832491520.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 3145728297294322544327658067440290161800903655424.0000000 lambda = 0.11111; f = 349525366366035847273032942449663539732212088832.0000000 lambda = 0.037037; f = 38836151818448434798984906035288046395642085376.0000000 lambda = 0.012346; f = 4315127979827603162303544988237893212458450944.0000000 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 479458664425289319484111957401881283817111552.0000000 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 53273184936143242314980839715476721679466496.0000000 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 5919242770682583442284568301459849552592896.0000000 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 657693641186953930729542187207392120274944.0000000 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 73077071242994874744566982856132414930944.0000000 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 8119674582554988903556577195927231528960.0000000 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 902186064728331982860720559236300406784.0000000 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 100242896080925784268731587238958202880.0000000 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 11138099564547310937314559538654871552.0000000 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 1237566618283034319031024809242787840.0000000 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 137507402031448251521199176457125888.0000000 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 15278600225716474440882583351853056.0000000 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 1697622247301830653559384901156864.0000000 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 188624694144647858401886548787200.0000000 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 2717861034637585608420952561490042135416786600585803571355516034613248.0000000 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 301984559404176258530915260263938276765772841921470376959942173130752.0000000 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 33553839933797360728699316361020174537909632478853319993171420119040.0000000 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 3728204437088594971376512205960202397290728630328674609163524898816.0000000 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 414244937454288361331647397054840299155357390206112709233619238912.0000000 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 46027215272698707464183771819827996885566302341249420873038823424.0000000 Norm of dx 8.3117e+40 Predicted improvement: 2009.489958697 lambda = 1; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.33333; f = 7027.9813249 lambda = 0.11111; f = 7231.0171395 lambda = 0.037037; f = 8057.3590228 lambda = 0.012346; f = 8156.2903117 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 7335.9274317 Norm of dx 6.6572e-15 Done for param ew = 0.9991 Predicted improvement: 1.042719403 lambda = 1; f = 7419.4273502 lambda = 0.33333; f = 7184.9586034 lambda = 0.11111; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.037037; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.012346; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 Norm of dx 5.9596e-16 Done for param em1 = 1.9875 Predicted improvement: 8567741713293104906240.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.33333; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.11111; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.037037; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.012346; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 7335.9274317 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 6743385615.1239471 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 751954328.7023270 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 83037839.8240447 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 9305496.8715944 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 1162908.6675455 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 195419.2704901 Norm of dx 5e-07 Done for param elr = 0.0001 Predicted improvement: 97605502663.879837036 lambda = 1; f = 98765026100.7040558 lambda = 0.33333; f = 10898320767.3944359 lambda = 0.11111; f = 1202632062.9231424 lambda = 0.037037; f = 155049817.5736075 lambda = 0.012346; f = 17002808.4187044 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 3308215.4353359 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 685927.4577865 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 155903.4758305 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 4250197.9814868 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 340142.4322267 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 8433.6239761 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 Norm of dx 6.5137e-12 Done for param rhow = 0.9584 Predicted improvement: 26492966108.269081116 lambda = 1; f = 27669932107.9476318 lambda = 0.33333; f = 3114711183.3066230 lambda = 0.11111; f = 545735067.2381730 lambda = 0.037037; f = 438176542.3265642 lambda = 0.012346; f = 3150948.2953303 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 22964251.4979783 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 71290.3885884 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 11865382.5797820 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 77363617.1805004 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 21208107.0683132 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 10929234.1728150 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 Norm of dx 7.0526e-12 Done for param rhocm = 0.6148 Predicted improvement: 70182444.025914714 lambda = 1; f = 178961567.8208092 lambda = 0.33333; f = 33380876.8873504 lambda = 0.11111; f = 94420319.2814585 lambda = 0.037037; f = 291489.7287815 lambda = 0.012346; f = 15611812.3639651 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 1353545.3099722 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 479365.0822755 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 23626623.1529626 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 1965046.7647543 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 22063728.0322386 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 58344500.2481464 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 3523875.1246085 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 8563946.1612732 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 15359041.3026630 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 109783318.1532190 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 Norm of dx 7.3964e-13 Done for param nu1 = 0.0039 Sequence of univariate steps!! Actual dxnorm 6.6613e-15 FVAL 6981.9522 Improvement 353.9752 Ftol 1e-06 Htol 1e-06 Elapsed time for iteration 2.7305 s. Iteration 4 Near-singular H problem. Correct for low angle: 1.88893e-54 Predicted improvement: 217780906163210179707748123059751909744040841724211934056643589858809348096.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 28311554675648913932579746993471322083512832491520.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 3145728297294322544327658067440290161800903655424.0000000 lambda = 0.11111; f = 349525366366035847273032942449663539732212088832.0000000 lambda = 0.037037; f = 38836151818448434798984906035288046395642085376.0000000 lambda = 0.012346; f = 4315127979827603162303544988237893212458450944.0000000 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 479458664425289319484111957401881283817111552.0000000 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 53273184936143242314980839715476721679466496.0000000 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 5919242770682583442284568301459849552592896.0000000 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 657693641186953930729542187207392120274944.0000000 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 73077071242994874744566982856132414930944.0000000 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 8119674582554988903556577195927231528960.0000000 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 902186064728331982860720559236300406784.0000000 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 100242896080925784268731587238958202880.0000000 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 11138099564547310937314559538654871552.0000000 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 1237566618283034319031024809242787840.0000000 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 137507402031448251521199176457125888.0000000 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 15278600225716474440882583351853056.0000000 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 1697622247301830653559384901156864.0000000 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 188624694144647858401886548787200.0000000 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 2717861034637585608420952561490042135416786600585803571355516034613248.0000000 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 301984559404176258530915260263938276765772841921470376959942173130752.0000000 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 33553839933797360728699316361020174537909632478853319993171420119040.0000000 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 3728204437088594971376512205960202397290728630328674609163524898816.0000000 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 414244937454288361331647397054840299155357390206112709233619238912.0000000 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 46027215272698707464183771819827996885566302341249420873038823424.0000000 Norm of dx 8.3117e+40 Predicted improvement: 291.842874332 lambda = 1; f = 16050.8219198 lambda = 0.33333; f = 8019.1118740 lambda = 0.11111; f = 7926.1448651 lambda = 0.037037; f = 8217.8391118 lambda = 0.012346; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 Norm of dx 2.537e-15 Done for param ew = 0.9991 Predicted improvement: 1.042719403 lambda = 1; f = 7419.4273502 lambda = 0.33333; f = 7184.9586034 lambda = 0.11111; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.037037; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.012346; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 Norm of dx 5.9596e-16 Done for param em1 = 1.9875 Predicted improvement: 8567741713293104906240.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.33333; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.11111; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.037037; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.012346; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 6743385615.1239471 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 751954328.7023270 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 83037839.8240447 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 9305496.8715944 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 1162908.6675455 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 195419.2704901 Norm of dx 5e-07 Done for param elr = 0.0001 Predicted improvement: 97605502663.879837036 lambda = 1; f = 98765026100.7040558 lambda = 0.33333; f = 10898320767.3944359 lambda = 0.11111; f = 1202632062.9231424 lambda = 0.037037; f = 155049817.5736075 lambda = 0.012346; f = 17002808.4187044 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 3308215.4353359 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 685927.4577865 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 155903.4758305 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 4250197.9814868 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 340142.4322267 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 8433.6239761 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 Norm of dx 6.5137e-12 Done for param rhow = 0.9584 Predicted improvement: 26492966108.269081116 lambda = 1; f = 27669932107.9476318 lambda = 0.33333; f = 3114711183.3066230 lambda = 0.11111; f = 545735067.2381730 lambda = 0.037037; f = 438176542.3265642 lambda = 0.012346; f = 3150948.2953303 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 22964251.4979783 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 71290.3885884 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 11865382.5797820 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 77363617.1805004 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 21208107.0683132 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 10929234.1728150 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 6981.9522355 Norm of dx 7.0526e-12 Done for param rhocm = 0.6148 Predicted improvement: 70182444.025914714 lambda = 1; f = 178961567.8208092 lambda = 0.33333; f = 33380876.8873504 lambda = 0.11111; f = 94420319.2814585 lambda = 0.037037; f = 291489.7287815 lambda = 0.012346; f = 15611812.3639651 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 1353545.3099722 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 479365.0822755 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 23626623.1529626 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 1965046.7647543 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 22063728.0322386 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 58344500.2481464 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 3523875.1246085 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 8563946.1612732 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 15359041.3026630 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 6981.9522355 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 109783318.1532190 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 6981.9522355 Norm of dx 7.3964e-13 Done for param nu1 = 0.0039 Sequence of univariate steps!! Try diagonal Hessian Near-singular H problem. Correct for low angle: 3.64099e-33 Predicted improvement: 46896466488209030216837053359178362466562099858928304128.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 1315058532724.7980957 lambda = 0.33333; f = 146116915615.3565979 lambda = 0.11111; f = 16234983942.5885029 lambda = 0.037037; f = 1803814943.9301512 lambda = 0.012346; f = 200403969.4437752 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 22264610.3631026 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 2477153.5304473 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 280482.3115142 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 37052.7635683 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 10220.0466639 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 7310.3038896 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 7010.4462653 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 6983.1915704 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 126028244985930537114256208297984.0000000 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 14003138331770033158163995295744.0000000 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 1555904259085550545346718859264.0000000 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 172878251009502910862359265280.0000000 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 19208694556610505819440545792.0000000 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 2134299395178637747006996480.0000000 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 126028244985930663215045774671872.0000000 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 14003138331770073690560641630208.0000000 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 1555904259085563493195647549440.0000000 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 172878251009507062618265747456.0000000 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 19208694556611900000184565760.0000000 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 2134299395179100366524383232.0000000 Norm of dx 1.7898e+22 Try gradient direction Near-singular H problem. Correct for low angle: 1.90827e-27 Predicted improvement: 6865303339301713727080141656687783977612921091888814342799360.000000000 lambda = 1; f = 28134783625129663397888.0000000 lambda = 0.33333; f = 3126087069355660017664.0000000 lambda = 0.11111; f = 347343007671786930176.0000000 lambda = 0.037037; f = 38593667507621683200.0000000 lambda = 0.012346; f = 4288185274802709504.0000000 lambda = 0.0041152; f = 476465029259665024.0000000 lambda = 0.0013717; f = 52940558381977160.0000000 lambda = 0.00045725; f = 5882284123117496.0000000 lambda = 0.00015242; f = 653587077612763.5000000 lambda = 5.0805e-05; f = 72620770679535.3125000 lambda = 1.6935e-05; f = 8068969283461.1367188 lambda = 5.645e-06; f = 896550401251.4345703 lambda = 1.8817e-06; f = 99616134938.7587128 lambda = 6.2723e-07; f = 11068271474.2251434 lambda = 2.0908e-07; f = 1229749427.4945052 lambda = 6.9692e-08; f = 136623460.9673161 lambda = 2.3231e-08; f = 15179403.5008114 lambda = 7.7435e-09; f = 1690413.7574459 lambda = 2.5812e-09; f = 193235.2591541 lambda = -6.2723e-07 lambda = -6.2723e-07; f = 2700891314871213142089929953963583085740032.0000000 lambda = -2.0908e-07; f = 300099034985690366314714984959568605347840.0000000 lambda = -6.9692e-08; f = 33344337220632258625454306365715001638912.0000000 lambda = -2.3231e-08; f = 3704926357848029071974317266920882044928.0000000 lambda = -7.7435e-09; f = 411658484205336588738656493851539144704.0000000 lambda = -2.5812e-09; f = 45739831578370735230317265674378936320.0000000 Norm of dx 2.6202e+27 No further improvement is possible! Actual dxnorm 0 FVAL 6981.9522 Improvement 0 Ftol 1e-06 Htol 1e-06 Gradient norm 5.240344774650505e+33 Minimum Hessian eigenvalue -3672.5214 Maximum Hessian eigenvalue 1.123211270809813e+20 Estimation successful. Stage 1 Iteration 1: value of minimized moment distance objective function: 6981.9522355420. Computing standard errors using numerical derivatives of moments [Warning: Cannot compute the Jacobian using finite differences for parameter SE_elr due to hitting the lower bound - no standard errors available. ] [> In mom.standard_errors (line 96) In mom.run (line 940) In ClimateDSGE_EZ_LRR_SMM5.driver (line 888) In dynare (line 281)] RESULTS FROM SMM (STAGE 1) ESTIMATION parameters Estimate s.d. t-stat rhow 0.9584 NaN NaN rhocm 0.6148 NaN NaN nu1 0.0039 NaN NaN standard deviation of shocks Estimate s.d. t-stat ew 0.9991 NaN NaN em1 1.9875 NaN NaN elr 0.0001 NaN NaN Comparison of data moments and model moments (SMM) Moment Data Model E[dc1] 0.0017504 0.0011452 E[dy1] 0.0015760 0.0011844 E[dca1] 0.0000771 0.0002511 E[hml1] -0.0030000 -0.0030000 E[div] 0.0016044 0.0016913 E[rm] 0.0841659 0.0077859 ==== Method of Moments Estimation (SMM) Completed ==== Total computing time : 0h00m14s