Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 71 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives (order 1). Computing dynamic model derivatives (order 2). Processing outputs ... done Preprocessing completed. =============================================== Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 1.3923. Change in the posterior mean = 6.3191. Mode improvement = 1797.5206 New value of jscale = 1.5825e-17 ========================================================== {Error using chol Matrix must be positive definite. Error in gmhmaxlik_core (line 194) dd = transpose(chol(CovJump)); Error in gmhmaxlik (line 100) [PostMode, PostVariance, Scale, PostMean] = gmhmaxlik_core(fun, OldPostMode, bounds, gmhmaxlikOptions, Scale, flag, MeanPar, OldPostVariance, varargin{:}); Error in dynare_minimize_objective (line 271) [opt_par_values, hessian_mat, Scale, fval] = gmhmaxlik(objective_function, start_par_value, ... Error in dynare_estimation_1 (line 219) [xparam1, fval, exitflag, hh, options_, Scale, new_rat_hess_info] = dynare_minimize_objective(objective_function,xparam1,options_.mode_compute,options_,[bounds.lb bounds.ub],bayestopt_.name,bayestopt_,hh,dataset_,dataset_info,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,bounds,oo_); Error in dynare_estimation (line 105) dynare_estimation_1(var_list,dname); Error in Final.driver (line 940) oo_recursive_=dynare_estimation(var_list_); Error in dynare (line 293) evalin('base',[fname '.driver']) ; } dynare Final Using 64-bit preprocessor Starting Dynare (version 4.6.2). Calling Dynare with arguments: none Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 71 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives (order 1). Computing dynamic model derivatives (order 2). Processing outputs ... done Preprocessing completed. STEADY-STATE RESULTS: APhat 0 ANhat 0 AThat 0 Bstarihat 0 Chat 0 Cihat 0 Cjhat 0 Ctildeihat 0 Dhat 0 D_GDPhat 0 Deltaehat 0 GDPhat 0 Hhat 0 GIhat 0 GWhat 0 Ihat 0 ihat 0 INhat 0 IThat 0 istarhat 0 KPhat 0 KNhat 0 KThat 0 lambdaihat 0 LPhat 0 LNhat 0 LThat 0 Mhat 0 omegaNhat 0 omegaThat 0 pChat 0 pihat 0 PiNhat 0 pistarhat 0 PiThat 0 pMhat 0 pNhat 0 pThat 0 GPhat 0 rNhat 0 rThat 0 GShat 0 TBhat 0 TB_GDPhat 0 Ghat 0 GThat 0 GTjhat 0 thetaIhat 0 thetaPhat 0 thetaThat 0 thetaWhat 0 ToThat 0 TRhat 0 GVAhat 0 wPhat 0 wNhat 0 wThat 0 Xhat 0 Yhat 0 YChat 0 YPhat 0 YNhat 0 YThat 0 monhat 0 shat 0 DeltaGDP 0 DeltaC 0 DeltaI 0 DeltaGI 0 DeltaG 0 DeltaGVA 0 Residuals of the static equations: Equation number 1 : 0 : Ctildeihat Equation number 2 : 0 : 2 Equation number 3 : 0 : 3 Equation number 4 : 0 : 4 Equation number 5 : 0 : 5 Equation number 6 : 0 : 6 Equation number 7 : 0 : 7 Equation number 8 : 0 : 8 Equation number 9 : 0 : 9 Equation number 10 : 0 : KThat Equation number 11 : 0 : KNhat Equation number 12 : 0 : 12 Equation number 13 : 0 : YThat Equation number 14 : 0 : AThat Equation number 15 : 0 : 15 Equation number 16 : 0 : 16 Equation number 17 : 0 : 17 Equation number 18 : 0 : 18 Equation number 19 : 0 : YNhat Equation number 20 : 0 : ANhat Equation number 21 : 0 : 21 Equation number 22 : 0 : 22 Equation number 23 : 0 : 23 Equation number 24 : 0 : 24 Equation number 25 : 0 : 25 Equation number 26 : 0 : YChat Equation number 27 : 0 : Hhat Equation number 28 : 0 : pChat Equation number 29 : 0 : Yhat Equation number 30 : 0 : 30 Equation number 31 : 0 : 31 Equation number 32 : 0 : YPhat Equation number 33 : 0 : APhat Equation number 34 : 0 : KPhat Equation number 35 : 0 : ihat Equation number 36 : 0 : monhat Equation number 37 : 0 : 37 Equation number 38 : 0 : 38 Equation number 39 : 0 : GShat Equation number 40 : 0 : GWhat Equation number 41 : 0 : thetaIhat Equation number 42 : 0 : thetaPhat Equation number 43 : 0 : thetaThat Equation number 44 : 0 : thetaWhat Equation number 45 : 0 : 45 Equation number 46 : 0 : 46 Equation number 47 : 0 : 47 Equation number 48 : 0 : 48 Equation number 49 : 0 : pistarhat Equation number 50 : 0 : 50 Equation number 51 : 0 : shat Equation number 52 : 0 : ToThat Equation number 53 : 0 : Xhat Equation number 54 : 0 : 54 Equation number 55 : 0 : 55 Equation number 56 : 0 : GThat Equation number 57 : 0 : 57 Equation number 58 : 0 : 58 Equation number 59 : 0 : 59 Equation number 60 : 0 : 60 Equation number 61 : 0 : 61 Equation number 62 : 0 : 62 Equation number 63 : 0 : TB_GDPhat Equation number 64 : 0 : GVAhat Equation number 65 : 0 : D_GDPhat Equation number 66 : 0 : DeltaGDP Equation number 67 : 0 : DeltaC Equation number 68 : 0 : DeltaG Equation number 69 : 0 : DeltaI Equation number 70 : 0 : DeltaGI Equation number 71 : 0 : DeltaGVA You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command. Smoothed variables will be computed for the 71 endogenous variables of your model, this can take a long time .... Choose one of the following options: [1] Consider all the endogenous variables. [2] Consider all the observed endogenous variables. [3] Stop Dynare and change the mod file. options [default is 1] = 2 Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -985909933.6663 ========================================================== Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 10. Change in the posterior mean = 9.1155. Mode improvement = 985909283.1606 New value of jscale = 0.0016148 ========================================================== ========================================================== Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 0.11975. Change in the posterior mean = 4.4084. Mode improvement = 104.6615 New value of jscale = 0.074316 ========================================================== ========================================================== Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 0.23283. Change in the posterior mean = 1.9316. Mode improvement = 447.0836 New value of jscale = 0.39332 ========================================================== Optimal value of the scale parameter = 0.39332 Final value of minus the log posterior (or likelihood):308.083623 MODE CHECK Fval obtained by the minimization routine (minus the posterior/likelihood)): 308.083623 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev aleph 0.800 0.7168 0.0067 beta 0.1000 gammaN 0.043 0.0429 0.0028 gamm 0.0100 gammaT 0.043 0.0222 0.0016 gamm 0.0100 mu 0.500 0.1121 0.0151 beta 0.2500 nu 0.500 0.2975 0.0095 invg Inf phiN 4.000 3.6450 0.1013 gamm 1.0000 phistar 0.050 0.0264 0.0008 gamm 0.0100 phiT 4.000 2.2615 0.0974 gamm 1.0000 propto 0.500 0.9922 0.0383 invg Inf psi 0.500 2.5939 0.2661 invg Inf rho 0.800 0.5078 0.0145 beta 0.1000 rhostar 0.800 0.8827 0.0062 beta 0.1000 rhoi 0.800 0.8873 0.0117 beta 0.1000 rhoP 0.800 0.9779 0.0092 beta 0.1000 rhoN 0.800 0.8265 0.0072 beta 0.1000 rhoS 0.800 0.7539 0.0104 beta 0.1000 rhoT 0.800 0.9995 0.0121 beta 0.1000 tauL 0.150 0.3212 0.0041 beta 0.0500 upsilon 1.000 1.7489 0.2443 invg Inf varphiGDP 0.500 0.4162 0.0501 norm 0.5000 varphie -0.600 -0.5744 0.0050 norm 0.0500 varphipi 1.000 1.2628 0.0102 norm 0.1500 varrhoP 0.800 0.8696 0.0064 beta 0.1000 varrhoT 0.800 0.9449 0.0090 beta 0.1000 varrhoW 0.800 0.6141 0.0104 beta 0.1000 varsigma 0.800 0.8283 0.0086 beta 0.1000 vartheta 0.010 0.0026 0.0012 invg Inf standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev epsilonWhat 0.005 0.8956 0.1074 invg Inf epsilonPhat 0.005 3.3220 0.5528 invg Inf epsilonThat 0.005 1.9493 0.1489 invg Inf estarhat 0.005 0.0432 0.0036 invg Inf uhat 0.010 0.9090 0.0510 invg Inf varepsilonhat 0.005 0.0453 0.0091 invg Inf varepsilonNhat 0.010 0.7803 0.1162 invg Inf varepsilonstarhat 0.010 0.0467 0.0053 invg Inf varepsilonThat 0.010 1.4921 0.0674 invg Inf varepsilonPhat 0.010 1.7838 0.1318 invg Inf Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -473.710195. Estimation::mcmc: Multiple chains mode. Estimation::mcmc: Old mh-files successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Old metropolis.log file successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Creation of a new metropolis.log file. Estimation::mcmc: Searching for initial values... Estimation::mcmc: Initial values found! Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok! Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in Final/metropolis\Final_mh_history_0.mat Estimation::mcmc: Number of mh files: 1 per block. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated files: 2. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of iterations: 25000. Estimation::mcmc: Current acceptance ratio per chain: Chain 1: 1.428% Chain 2: 1.684% Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws per chain: 25000. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 1. Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 1 to 1. Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 1 I'll start at line 12501. Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep 12500 draws per chain. MCMC Inefficiency factors per block Parameter Block 1 Block 2 SE_epsilonWhat 489.415 580.192 SE_epsilonPhat 551.301 538.450 SE_epsilonThat 647.796 428.139 SE_estarhat 562.461 579.841 SE_uhat 584.736 572.585 SE_varepsilonhat 584.761 575.814 SE_varepsilonNhat 426.441 518.472 SE_varepsilonstarhat 530.404 451.348 SE_varepsilonThat 667.467 635.528 SE_varepsilonPhat 620.899 624.805 aleph 654.773 648.911 gammaN 530.851 592.885 gammaT 624.978 620.392 mu 528.772 540.885 nu 458.318 578.287 phiN 542.288 424.923 phistar 608.564 621.957 phiT 629.101 587.122 propto 401.172 620.436 psi 571.896 603.165 rho 654.261 552.058 rhostar 606.248 566.236 rhoi 519.039 546.235 rhoP 316.216 453.383 rhoN 597.386 484.641 rhoS 629.591 616.297 rhoT 136.170 168.802 tauL 620.313 594.021 upsilon 452.151 544.375 varphiGDP 440.838 613.776 varphie 530.540 537.673 varphipi 542.222 631.189 varrhoP 608.964 584.862 varrhoT 474.238 514.399 varrhoW 650.729 601.445 varsigma 621.840 557.516 vartheta 370.950 486.763 Estimation::mcmc::diagnostics: Univariate convergence diagnostic, Brooks and Gelman (1998): Parameter 1... Done! Parameter 2... Done! Parameter 3... Done! Parameter 4... Done! Parameter 5... Done! Parameter 6... Done! Parameter 7... Done! Parameter 8... Done! Parameter 9... Done! Parameter 10... Done! Parameter 11... Done! Parameter 12... Done! Parameter 13... Done! Parameter 14... Done! Parameter 15... Done! Parameter 16... Done! Parameter 17... Done! Parameter 18... Done! Parameter 19... Done! Parameter 20... Done! Parameter 21... Done! Parameter 22... Done! Parameter 23... Done! Parameter 24... Done! Parameter 25... Done! Parameter 26... Done! Parameter 27... Done! Parameter 28... Done! Parameter 29... Done! Parameter 30... Done! Parameter 31... Done! Parameter 32... Done! Parameter 33... Done! Parameter 34... Done! Parameter 35... Done! Parameter 36... Done! Parameter 37... Done! Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior mean and covariance... Done! Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior log marginal density (modified harmonic mean)... Done! ESTIMATION RESULTS Log data density is -477.734478. parameters prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev aleph 0.800 0.7164 0.7077 0.7281 beta 0.1000 gammaN 0.043 0.0415 0.0391 0.0438 gamm 0.0100 gammaT 0.043 0.0226 0.0213 0.0239 gamm 0.0100 mu 0.500 0.1156 0.0973 0.1342 beta 0.2500 nu 0.500 0.2974 0.2799 0.3124 invg Inf phiN 4.000 3.6121 3.4030 3.8102 gamm 1.0000 phistar 0.050 0.0259 0.0250 0.0276 gamm 0.0100 phiT 4.000 2.2824 2.1489 2.4192 gamm 1.0000 propto 0.500 0.9695 0.9004 1.0282 invg Inf psi 0.500 2.7277 2.1244 3.3821 invg Inf rho 0.800 0.4997 0.4866 0.5091 beta 0.1000 rhostar 0.800 0.9055 0.8962 0.9123 beta 0.1000 rhoi 0.800 0.8916 0.8794 0.9039 beta 0.1000 rhoP 0.800 0.9785 0.9760 0.9818 beta 0.1000 rhoN 0.800 0.8423 0.8245 0.8567 beta 0.1000 rhoS 0.800 0.7634 0.7430 0.7838 beta 0.1000 rhoT 0.800 0.9993 0.9986 0.9998 beta 0.1000 tauL 0.150 0.3294 0.3239 0.3361 beta 0.0500 upsilon 1.000 1.7641 1.6101 1.9822 invg Inf varphiGDP 0.500 0.4507 0.3454 0.5648 norm 0.5000 varphie -0.600 -0.5758 -0.5904 -0.5630 norm 0.0500 varphipi 1.000 1.2743 1.2630 1.2884 norm 0.1500 varrhoP 0.800 0.8766 0.8710 0.8827 beta 0.1000 varrhoT 0.800 0.9373 0.9255 0.9488 beta 0.1000 varrhoW 0.800 0.5936 0.5829 0.6012 beta 0.1000 varsigma 0.800 0.8211 0.7994 0.8398 beta 0.1000 vartheta 0.010 0.0030 0.0020 0.0041 invg Inf standard deviation of shocks prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev epsilonWhat 0.005 0.9926 0.8614 1.1226 invg Inf epsilonPhat 0.005 3.4931 3.1117 3.8975 invg Inf epsilonThat 0.005 2.0101 1.7577 2.2856 invg Inf estarhat 0.005 0.0441 0.0387 0.0513 invg Inf uhat 0.010 0.8846 0.8079 0.9660 invg Inf varepsilonhat 0.005 0.0466 0.0383 0.0543 invg Inf varepsilonNhat 0.010 0.8368 0.7116 0.9648 invg Inf varepsilonstarhat 0.010 0.0460 0.0388 0.0508 invg Inf varepsilonThat 0.010 1.4927 1.3268 1.6667 invg Inf varepsilonPhat 0.010 1.8551 1.5726 2.0997 invg Inf Estimation::mcmc: Smoothed variables Estimation::mcmc: Smoothed variables, done! Estimation::mcmc: Smoothed shocks Estimation::mcmc: Smoothed shocks, done! Estimation::mcmc: Trend_coefficients Estimation::mcmc: Trend_coefficients, done! Estimation::mcmc: Smoothed constant Estimation::mcmc: Smoothed constant, done! Estimation::mcmc: Smoothed trend Estimation::mcmc: Smoothed trend, done! Estimation::mcmc: Updated Variables Estimation::mcmc: Updated Variables, done! MODEL SUMMARY Number of variables: 71 Number of stochastic shocks: 10 Number of state variables: 26 Number of jumpers: 10 Number of static variables: 40 MATRIX OF COVARIANCE OF EXOGENOUS SHOCKS Variables epsilonPhat epsilonThat epsilonWhat estarhat uhat varepsilonhat varepsilonPhat varepsilonNhat varepsilonstarhat varepsilonThat epsilonPhat 12.201728 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 epsilonThat 0.000000 4.040542 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 epsilonWhat 0.000000 0.000000 0.985180 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 estarhat 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.001943 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 uhat 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.782604 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 varepsilonhat 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.002172 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 varepsilonPhat 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 3.441574 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 varepsilonNhat 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.700245 0.000000 0.000000 varepsilonstarhat 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.002114 0.000000 varepsilonThat 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2.228108 POLICY AND TRANSITION FUNCTIONS DeltaGDP DeltaC DeltaI DeltaG DeltaGI DeltaGVA TB_GDPhat pihat pistarhat ihat istarhat APhat(-1) 0.602599 0.801094 1.524022 0 0 0.710171 -0.247824 2.061749 0 0.164905 -0.001127 ANhat(-1) 0.480749 0.307843 1.778568 0 0 0.365325 -0.097370 0.543158 0 0.039181 -0.000948 AThat(-1) 0.602604 0.863256 2.369764 0 0 0.751470 -0.466188 2.719707 0 0.218894 -0.001109 Bstarihat(-1) -0.038110 -0.020203 -0.228898 0 0 0.013082 0.023388 0.084679 0 -0.002668 0.000098 Chat(-1) 0 -1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dhat(-1) -0.183509 -0.224825 -0.514358 0 0 -0.144981 0.073397 -0.701060 0 -0.058843 0.001735 GDPhat(-1) -0.817723 0.223324 0.507617 0 0 0.154494 -0.072220 0.663358 0 0.005536 -0.000346 GIhat(-1) 0 0 0 0 -1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ihat(-1) 0 0 -1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ihat(-1) -3.418367 -4.197973 -9.475976 0 0 -2.908132 1.351710 -12.542449 0 -0.133853 0.007284 istarhat(-1) -0.130411 -0.123444 -0.532963 0 0 -0.043794 0.063331 -0.182384 0 -0.028716 0.000873 KPhat(-1) 0.241945 0.311251 0.641268 0 0 0.261749 -0.098813 0.853318 0 0.068696 -0.000451 GShat(-1) 0.003250 0.039927 -0.639251 0.763353 0.763353 0.011166 0.014355 -0.692914 0 -0.047708 0.000478 Ghat(-1) 0 0 0 -1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 thetaPhat(-1) 0.008018 0.023691 -0.137613 0.198732 -0.533041 0.031251 -0.003931 0.002921 0 0.000180 -0.000017 thetaThat(-1) -0.079396 0.000466 -0.532418 0 -1.409910 -0.071697 0.032323 -0.287325 0 -0.023218 0.000147 thetaWhat(-1) 0.070317 0.097966 -0.227012 0.459069 -1.231316 0.048989 -0.005078 0.041560 0 0.005890 -0.000160 GVAhat(-1) 0 0 0 0 0 -1.000000 0 0 0 0 0 Xhat(-1) 0.443270 0.291551 0.140957 0 0 0.235829 0.219540 0.227576 0 0.058534 -0.000932 monhat(-1) -3.594933 -4.399081 -10.028445 0 0 -3.042907 1.424379 -13.511261 0 -0.605985 0.006741 shat(-1) -2.145794 -1.832261 -9.573625 0 0 -0.743402 1.079620 -1.883231 0 -0.395019 0.902179 KNhat(-1) -0.142729 -0.172835 -0.579563 0 0 -0.177105 0.093401 -0.577105 0 -0.047714 0.000268 KThat(-1) -0.600722 -0.573874 -1.813515 0 0 -0.450025 0.160629 -1.660796 0 -0.139275 0.001149 pMhat(-1) -0.208188 -0.272208 -0.500338 0 0 -0.205821 0.077123 -0.902187 0 -0.005346 0.000379 pNhat(-1) -0.264146 -0.296589 -0.700938 0 0 -0.193928 0.079561 -0.103901 0 -0.013694 0.000659 pThat(-1) -0.041920 -0.080940 -0.140117 0 0 -0.068277 0.041012 -0.036328 0 -0.003361 0.000126 epsilonPhat 0.009146 0.027025 -0.156978 0.226698 -0.608051 0.035649 -0.004484 0.003332 0 0.000205 -0.000019 epsilonThat -0.084708 0.000497 -0.568038 0 -1.504237 -0.076494 0.034485 -0.306548 0 -0.024772 0.000157 epsilonWhat 0.118450 0.165024 -0.382402 0.773302 -2.074153 0.082522 -0.008554 0.070008 0 0.009922 -0.000269 estarhat -0.170077 -0.252005 -0.271440 0 0 -0.218902 0.053735 -0.986866 1.000000 -0.002678 0.000282 uhat 0.004257 0.052305 -0.837424 1.000000 1.000000 0.014627 0.018805 -0.907724 0 -0.062498 0.000626 varepsilonhat -7.194671 -8.804041 -20.070292 0 0 -6.089880 2.850663 -27.040578 0 -1.212780 0.013491 varepsilonPhat 0.615843 0.818701 1.557519 0 0 0.725780 -0.253271 2.107064 0 0.168529 -0.001152 varepsilonNhat 0.570747 0.365472 2.111519 0 0 0.433714 -0.115598 0.644838 0 0.046515 -0.001125 varepsilonstarhat -2.369811 -2.023545 -10.573095 0 0 -0.821011 1.192330 -2.079837 0 -0.436259 0.996365 varepsilonThat 0.603043 0.863885 2.371491 0 0 0.752018 -0.466527 2.721689 0 0.219053 -0.001109 THEORETICAL MOMENTS VARIABLE MEAN STD. DEV. VARIANCE DeltaGDP 0.0000 2.0980 4.4018 DeltaC 0.0000 2.6600 7.0754 DeltaI 0.0000 7.0763 50.0744 DeltaG 0.0000 1.5150 2.2953 DeltaGI 0.0000 4.5225 20.4531 DeltaGVA 0.0000 2.1225 4.5052 TB_GDPhat 0.0000 0.9728 0.9463 pihat 0.0000 6.2019 38.4641 pistarhat 0.0000 0.0441 0.0019 ihat 0.0000 1.8566 3.4471 istarhat 0.0000 0.2355 0.0554 VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION (in percent) epsilonPhat epsilonThat epsilonWhat estarhat uhat varepsilonhat varepsilonPhat varepsilonNhat varepsilonstarhat varepsilonThat DeltaGDP 0.02 1.11 0.41 0.00 0.50 4.69 47.22 5.77 0.41 39.86 DeltaC 0.14 0.37 0.49 0.00 0.45 4.31 49.18 1.53 0.19 43.35 DeltaI 0.64 3.12 0.34 0.00 1.91 3.57 33.34 7.21 0.57 49.29 DeltaG 29.12 0.00 32.21 0.00 38.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DeltaGI 23.51 46.15 26.01 0.00 4.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DeltaGVA 0.37 0.81 0.20 0.00 0.32 3.14 51.80 3.28 0.08 40.01 TB_GDPhat 0.05 0.54 0.02 0.01 1.01 2.10 25.15 1.92 1.20 67.99 pihat 0.00 1.09 0.01 0.00 1.90 4.17 43.60 0.90 0.03 48.30 pistarhat 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ihat 0.00 1.05 0.02 0.00 2.05 0.13 41.07 1.16 0.06 54.47 istarhat 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.12 0.11 21.08 78.55 MATRIX OF CORRELATIONS Variables DeltaGDP DeltaC DeltaI DeltaG DeltaGI DeltaGVA TB_GDPhat pihat pistarhat ihat istarhat DeltaGDP 1.0000 0.9860 0.9620 0.0398 0.0154 0.9756 -0.5330 0.6064 -0.0036 0.0358 -0.0085 DeltaC 0.9860 1.0000 0.9360 0.0656 -0.0506 0.9838 -0.5738 0.6372 -0.0042 0.0360 -0.0091 DeltaI 0.9620 0.9360 1.0000 -0.1512 0.1559 0.9270 -0.5200 0.5791 -0.0017 0.0172 -0.0090 DeltaG 0.0398 0.0656 -0.1512 1.0000 -0.4215 0.0568 0.0146 -0.0632 0.0000 0.0005 -0.0012 DeltaGI 0.0154 -0.0506 0.1559 -0.4215 1.0000 -0.0018 -0.0260 0.0343 0.0000 0.0055 -0.0019 DeltaGVA 0.9756 0.9838 0.9270 0.0568 -0.0018 1.0000 -0.6665 0.7265 -0.0045 0.0734 -0.0119 TB_GDPhat -0.5330 -0.5738 -0.5200 0.0146 -0.0260 -0.6665 1.0000 -0.7971 0.0024 -0.1191 0.3451 pihat 0.6064 0.6372 0.5791 -0.0632 0.0343 0.7265 -0.7971 1.0000 -0.0070 0.5345 0.0175 pistarhat -0.0036 -0.0042 -0.0017 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0045 0.0024 -0.0070 1.0000 -0.0001 0.0001 ihat 0.0358 0.0360 0.0172 0.0005 0.0055 0.0734 -0.1191 0.5345 -0.0001 1.0000 0.0953 istarhat -0.0085 -0.0091 -0.0090 -0.0012 -0.0019 -0.0119 0.3451 0.0175 0.0001 0.0953 1.0000 COEFFICIENTS OF AUTOCORRELATION Order 1 2 3 4 5 DeltaGDP -0.4404 -0.0477 -0.0027 0.0024 0.0021 DeltaC -0.4395 -0.0451 -0.0041 0.0007 0.0009 DeltaI -0.4069 -0.0565 -0.0158 -0.0077 -0.0045 DeltaG -0.1292 -0.0895 -0.0635 -0.0461 -0.0343 DeltaGI -0.0869 -0.0616 -0.0455 -0.0350 -0.0280 DeltaGVA -0.4046 -0.0336 0.0003 0.0020 0.0006 TB_GDPhat 0.3196 0.1680 0.0958 0.0580 0.0415 pihat 0.2060 0.1561 0.1465 0.1417 0.1375 pistarhat 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ihat 0.9680 0.9399 0.9118 0.8835 0.8554 istarhat 0.9800 0.9620 0.9457 0.9309 0.9174 Total computing time : 0h48m40s