Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 96 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives (order 1). Computing dynamic model derivatives (order 2). Processing outputs ... done Preprocessing completed. STEADY-STATE RESULTS: AN -0.625593 AP -1.50155 AT -0.87583 C 0.659 Ci 0.750876 Cj 0.495665 Ctildei 0.750876 D 1.45 D_GDP 1.45 DeltaC 0 DeltaD_GDP 0 DeltaG 0 DeltaGDP 0 DeltaGI 0 DeltaI 0 Deltai 0 DeltaiF 0 DeltaL 0 DeltaRER 0 Deltas 0 DeltaToT 0 EF 4.3985 EFi 6.87265 G 0.115 GDP 1 GI 0.043 GP 0.029 GS 0.229 GT 0.071 GTi 0.071 GTj 0.071 GW 0.086 H 0.434634 i 0.005 I 0.241 IN 0.0525856 INi 0.0821649 iF 0.005 IT 0.145414 ITi 0.22721 KN 3.2866 KNi 5.13531 KP 3.90909 KT 10.3867 KTi 16.2293 L 0.34768 lambda 1.05888 lambdai 1.65451 LNT 0.377653 LNTi 0.377653 LNTj 0.377653 LP 0.290387 LPi 0.290387 LPj 0.290387 LT 0.375 LTi 0.375 LTj 0.375 M 0.220409 mcN 1.17651 mcT 0.75131 NX -0.015 NX_GDP -0.015 PC 0.787542 pi 0 pi_100 0 PiN 0.0688547 piF 0 piF_100 0 PiT 0.023851 PN 1.41181 Psi 0 PT 0.788876 R 1.005 RF 1.005 RER 0.784905 RN 0.0230451 RT 0.0208504 T 0.23625 tauC 0.072 tauK 0.0887453 tauL 0.251443 ToT 1.00506 Upsilon 0 WN 0.711058 WP 0.296156 WT 0.694543 X 0.200285 Xi 1.45725 Y 0.929 YC 0.655041 YH 0.914 YN 0.292623 YP 0.086 YT 0.634919 ZC 0 ZL 0 Residuals of the static equations: Equation number 1 : 0 : Ctildei Equation number 2 : 0 : 2 Equation number 3 : 0 : 3 Equation number 4 : 0 : 4 Equation number 5 : 0 : 5 Equation number 6 : 0 : ZC Equation number 7 : 0 : ZL Equation number 8 : 0 : 8 Equation number 9 : 0 : 9 Equation number 10 : 0 : lambdai Equation number 11 : 0 : 11 Equation number 12 : 0 : KTi Equation number 13 : 0 : KNi Equation number 14 : 0 : 14 Equation number 15 : 0 : LTi Equation number 16 : 0 : LNTi Equation number 17 : 0 : LPi Equation number 18 : 0 : GTi Equation number 19 : 0 : C Equation number 20 : 0 : GT Equation number 21 : 0 : LT Equation number 22 : 0 : LNT Equation number 23 : 0 : LP Equation number 24 : 0 : IT Equation number 25 : 0 : IN Equation number 26 : 0 : KT Equation number 27 : 0 : KN Equation number 28 : 0 : EF Equation number 29 : 0 : lambda Equation number 30 : 0 : YT Equation number 31 : 0 : AT Equation number 32 : 0 : PiT Equation number 33 : 0 : 33 Equation number 34 : 0 : 34 Equation number 35 : 0 : 35 Equation number 36 : 0 : YN Equation number 37 : 0 : AN Equation number 38 : 0 : PiN Equation number 39 : 0 : 39 Equation number 40 : 0 : 40 Equation number 41 : 0 : 41 Equation number 42 : 0 : 42 Equation number 43 : 0 : YC Equation number 44 : 0 : 44 Equation number 45 : 0 : PC Equation number 46 : 0 : Y Equation number 47 : 0 : 47 Equation number 48 : 0 : 48 Equation number 49 : 0 : YP Equation number 50 : 0 : AP Equation number 51 : 0 : KP Equation number 52 : 0 : 52 Equation number 53 : 0 : Psi Equation number 54 : 0 : T Equation number 55 : 0 : GS Equation number 56 : 0 : 56 Equation number 57 : 0 : Xi Equation number 58 : 0 : 58 Equation number 59 : 0 : 59 Equation number 60 : 0 : 60 Equation number 61 : 0 : 61 Equation number 62 : 0 : 62 Equation number 63 : 0 : 63 Equation number 64 : 0 : 64 Equation number 65 : 0 : piF Equation number 66 : 0 : 66 Equation number 67 : 0 : Upsilon Equation number 68 : 0 : ToT Equation number 69 : 0 : 69 Equation number 70 : 0 : G Equation number 71 : 0 : 71 Equation number 72 : 0 : GDP Equation number 73 : 0 : 73 Equation number 74 : 0 : 74 Equation number 75 : 0 : GW Equation number 76 : 0 : YH Equation number 77 : 0 : D_GDP Equation number 78 : 0 : I Equation number 79 : 0 : L Equation number 80 : 0 : NX Equation number 81 : 0 : NX_GDP Equation number 82 : 0 : R Equation number 83 : 0 : RF Equation number 84 : 0 : DeltaC Equation number 85 : 0 : DeltaD_GDP Equation number 86 : 0 : DeltaG Equation number 87 : 0 : DeltaGDP Equation number 88 : 0 : DeltaGI Equation number 89 : 0 : DeltaI Equation number 90 : 0 : Deltai Equation number 91 : 0 : DeltaiF Equation number 92 : 0 : DeltaL Equation number 93 : 0 : DeltaRER Equation number 94 : 0 : DeltaToT Equation number 95 : 0 : pi_100 Equation number 96 : 0 : piF_100 EIGENVALUES: Modulus Real Imaginary 0 -0 0 5.55e-17 -5.55e-17 0 1.519e-16 1.519e-16 0 2.722e-16 2.722e-16 0 6.979e-16 6.979e-16 0 8.507e-16 8.507e-16 0 1.141e-15 -1.141e-15 0 1.743e-15 1.743e-15 0 2.489e-15 -2.489e-15 0 1.981e-08 1.981e-08 0 1.981e-08 -1.981e-08 0 0.005302 0.005302 0 0.4684 0.4628 0.07221 0.4684 0.4628 -0.07221 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5 0 0.5665 0.5665 0 0.8626 0.8626 0 0.8959 0.8959 0 0.9763 0.9763 0 0.9892 0.9892 0 0.9985 0.9985 0 1.005 1.005 0 1.026 1.026 0 1.156 1.156 0 1.246 1.246 0 2.216 2.216 0 10.95 10.95 0 3.691e+18 3.691e+18 0 4.899e+19 -4.899e+19 0 5.719e+19 -5.719e+19 0 2.82e+20 2.82e+20 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf -Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 There are 14 eigenvalue(s) larger than 1 in modulus for 14 forward-looking variable(s) The rank condition is verified. You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command. Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -1041.5905 ========================================================== Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 0.03077. Change in the posterior mean = 0.45025. Mode improvement = 47.2892 New value of jscale = 0.090637 ========================================================== ========================================================== Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 0.091087. Change in the posterior mean = 0.32608. Mode improvement = 2.837 New value of jscale = 0.17772 ========================================================== ========================================================== Change in the posterior covariance matrix = 0.056301. Change in the posterior mean = 0.53192. Mode improvement = 24.6011 New value of jscale = 0.19608 ========================================================== Optimal value of the scale parameter = 0.19608 Final value of minus the log posterior (or likelihood):972.537232 MODE CHECK Fval obtained by the minimization routine (minus the posterior/likelihood)): 972.537232 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev gammaC 0.500 0.1563 0.1320 norm 0.2500 gammaI 0.500 0.7183 0.1040 norm 0.2500 gammaK 0.500 1.0078 0.0996 norm 0.2500 gammaL 0.500 0.1053 0.1003 norm 0.2500 gammaP 0.500 0.6151 0.1719 norm 0.2500 gammaT 0.500 0.0655 0.0579 norm 0.2500 gammaW 0.500 0.1253 0.0611 norm 0.2500 omegaC 0.500 0.9220 0.0851 norm 0.2500 omegaI 0.500 0.9226 0.1518 norm 0.2500 omegaK 0.500 0.0056 0.0670 norm 0.2500 omegaL 0.500 0.3091 0.1083 norm 0.2500 omegaP 0.500 1.0180 0.1542 norm 0.2500 omegaT 0.500 0.8920 0.1616 norm 0.2500 omegaW 0.500 0.4799 0.1336 norm 0.2500 phiF 0.500 0.0007 0.0003 norm 0.2500 phiN 1.000 0.7143 0.2081 gamm 0.5000 phiT 1.000 1.7352 0.2557 gamm 0.5000 propto 0.500 1.0000 0.0437 unif 0.2887 rho 0.500 0.1318 0.0447 beta 0.2000 rhoC 0.500 0.9900 0.0003 beta 0.2000 rhoF 0.500 0.8986 0.0240 beta 0.2000 rhoi 0.900 0.7878 0.0174 beta 0.0500 rhoL 0.500 0.9900 0.0047 beta 0.2000 rhoN 0.500 0.9032 0.0104 beta 0.2000 rhoP 0.500 0.9900 0.0010 beta 0.2000 rhoT 0.500 0.5510 0.0752 beta 0.2000 rhoX 0.500 0.1613 0.0781 beta 0.2000 varphiGDP 0.100 0.0000 0.0013 norm 0.0500 varphipi 1.600 1.4737 0.0421 gamm 0.1000 varpi 0.000 1.0810 0.1418 norm 1.0000 varrhoC 0.500 0.7324 0.0917 beta 0.2000 varrhoI 0.500 0.8954 0.0264 beta 0.2000 varrhoK 0.500 0.3274 0.0249 beta 0.2000 varrhoL 0.500 0.9089 0.0075 beta 0.2000 varrhoP 0.500 0.7614 0.0692 beta 0.2000 varrhoT 0.500 0.3778 0.1034 beta 0.2000 varrhoW 0.500 0.8342 0.0450 beta 0.2000 varsigma 0.500 0.2726 0.0399 invg 0.2000 hvartheta 0.500 0.2664 0.0691 invg 0.5000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev epsilonC 0.005 0.0023 0.0030 invg Inf epsilonF 0.005 0.0025 0.0002 invg Inf epsilonI 0.005 0.0186 0.0019 invg Inf epsilonK 0.005 2.1356 0.2518 invg Inf epsilonL 0.005 0.2147 0.0204 invg Inf epsilonW 0.005 0.1669 0.0157 invg Inf epsilonP 0.005 0.5102 0.0526 invg Inf epsilonT 0.005 0.0024 0.0058 invg Inf upsilonC 0.005 0.0508 0.0067 invg Inf upsilonL 0.005 0.0240 0.0026 invg Inf varepsilon 0.005 0.0008 0.0001 invg Inf varepsilonF 0.005 0.0007 0.0001 invg Inf varepsilonN 0.005 0.0303 0.0030 invg Inf varepsilonT 0.005 0.0142 0.0012 invg Inf varepsilonP 0.005 0.1037 0.0135 invg Inf Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -1184.353035. Estimation::mcmc: Multiple chains mode. Estimation::mcmc: Old mh-files successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Old metropolis.log file successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Creation of a new metropolis.log file. Estimation::mcmc: Searching for initial values... Estimation::mcmc: Initial values found! Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok! Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in Estimation3/metropolis\Estimation3_mh_history_0.mat