//*********************** State Variable Specification ************************// //== Number independent state variables ==// 0 //== Number states ==// 2 //== Number of lags encoded ==// 0 //== Number of base states ==// 2 //== Prior ==// 1.50000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 1.50000000000000e+000 //== Number Dirichlet variables ==// 2 //== Dirichlet dimensions ==// 2 2 //== Dirichlet index (total) ==// 0 2 1 3 //== Dirichlet multipliers ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 //*****************************************************************************// //== Number Variables ==// 3 //== Number Lags ==// 4 //== Exogenous Variables ==// 1 //== Number States ==// 2 //== Number Observations ==// 184 //== Number of free parameters in each column of A0 ==// 1 2 3 //== U[1] ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 //== U[2] ==// 0.00000000000000e+000 -1.00000000000000e+000 -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 //== U[3] ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 //== Number of free parameters in each column of Aplus ==// 13 13 13 //== V[1] ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 //== V[2] ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 //== V[3] ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 //== Non-zero W[j] ==// 1 1 1 //== W[1] ==// -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 //== W[2] ==// -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 //== W[3] ==// -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 -1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 //== Gamma prior on zeta - a ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 //== Gamma prior on zeta - b ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 //== Variance of Gaussian prior on column 1 of A0 ==// 1.65687878403763e+004 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 8.18696317778855e+003 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.18706325564786e+004 //== Variance of Gaussian prior on column 2 of A0 ==// 1.65687878403763e+004 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 8.18696317778855e+003 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.18706325564786e+004 //== Variance of Gaussian prior on column 3 of A0 ==// 1.65687878403763e+004 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 8.18696317778855e+003 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.18706325564786e+004 //== Variance of Gaussian prior on column 1 of Aplus ==// 1.42803978954911e+004 5.42395331963704e+002 3.12792957735256e+002 -4.33568818762285e+002 1.02764698781911e+002 5.92631834908900e+001 -1.63847198268682e+002 3.88351450743345e+001 2.23957677657371e+001 -8.21459301650425e+001 1.94702695495242e+001 1.12282736251609e+001 1.42050114509705e-001 5.42395331963704e+002 3.62545133005136e+003 -3.08223673579051e+002 1.02764698781912e+002 -8.64244884493590e+002 -5.83974660293083e+001 3.88351450743346e+001 -3.26601214881076e+002 -2.20686100587384e+001 1.94702695495243e+001 -1.63743786118600e+002 -1.10642508378563e+001 -1.39975044334482e-001 3.12792957735256e+002 -3.08223673579051e+002 3.05393871002267e+003 5.92631834908892e+001 -5.83974660293072e+001 -1.67045111561544e+003 2.23957677657369e+001 -2.20686100587380e+001 -6.31269416282552e+002 1.12282736251608e+001 -1.10642508378562e+001 -3.16491303685511e+002 -8.07219486347576e-002 -4.33568818762285e+002 1.02764698781912e+002 5.92631834908892e+001 3.05705234691676e+003 1.94702695495243e+001 1.12282736251609e+001 -3.10432390990194e+001 7.35788409400045e+000 4.24320452778091e+000 -1.55637434028201e+001 3.68892626382961e+000 2.12736004337102e+000 2.69134639796324e-002 1.02764698781911e+002 -8.64244884493590e+002 -5.83974660293072e+001 1.94702695495243e+001 1.38739567862949e+003 -1.10642508378564e+001 7.35788409400046e+000 -6.18793590047087e+001 -4.18121973323598e+000 3.68892626382961e+000 -3.10236461603872e+001 -2.09628353637068e+000 -2.65203116994752e-002 5.92631834908900e+001 -5.83974660293083e+001 -1.67045111561544e+003 1.12282736251609e+001 -1.10642508378564e+001 1.93257299891602e+003 4.24320452778095e+000 -4.18121973323608e+000 -1.19603189023852e+002 2.12736004337104e+000 -2.09628353637073e+000 -5.99638890190757e+001 -1.52939493533380e-002 -1.63847198268682e+002 3.88351450743346e+001 2.23957677657369e+001 -3.10432390990194e+001 7.35788409400046e+000 4.24320452778095e+000 1.17458284064792e+003 2.78057056185273e+000 1.60352207878461e+000 -5.88159397256587e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 8.03936924731182e-001 1.01706937352098e-002 3.88351450743345e+001 -3.26601214881076e+002 -2.20686100587380e+001 7.35788409400045e+000 -6.18793590047087e+001 -4.18121973323608e+000 2.78057056185273e+000 5.62796689383605e+002 -1.58009780452421e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 -1.17239461960602e+001 -7.92193002235745e-001 -1.00221200905907e-002 2.23957677657371e+001 -2.20686100587384e+001 -6.31269416282552e+002 4.24320452778091e+000 -4.18121973323598e+000 -1.19603189023852e+002 1.60352207878461e+000 -1.58009780452421e+000 8.04730926633142e+002 8.03936924731193e-001 -7.92193002235768e-001 -2.26605668763660e+001 -5.77963784194882e-003 -8.21459301650425e+001 1.94702695495243e+001 1.12282736251608e+001 -1.55637434028201e+001 3.68892626382961e+000 2.12736004337104e+000 -5.88159397256587e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 8.03936924731193e-001 5.91818076302652e+002 6.98920831340229e-001 4.03059357583717e-001 5.09914790201372e-003 1.94702695495242e+001 -1.63743786118600e+002 -1.10642508378562e+001 3.68892626382961e+000 -3.10236461603872e+001 -2.09628353637073e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 -1.17239461960602e+001 -7.92193002235768e-001 6.98920831340229e-001 2.88008091155987e+002 -3.97171460522504e-001 -5.02465947398927e-003 1.12282736251609e+001 -1.10642508378563e+001 -3.16491303685511e+002 2.12736004337102e+000 -2.09628353637068e+000 -5.99638890190757e+001 8.03936924731182e-001 -7.92193002235745e-001 -2.26605668763660e+001 4.03059357583717e-001 -3.97171460522504e-001 4.14756970327712e+002 -2.89766155027817e-003 1.42050114509705e-001 -1.39975044334482e-001 -8.07219486347576e-002 2.69134639796324e-002 -2.65203116994752e-002 -1.52939493533380e-002 1.01706937352098e-002 -1.00221200905907e-002 -5.77963784194882e-003 5.09914790201372e-003 -5.02465947398927e-003 -2.89766155027817e-003 9.96334136762529e-003 //== Variance of Gaussian prior on column 2 of Aplus ==// 1.42803978954911e+004 5.42395331963704e+002 3.12792957735256e+002 -4.33568818762285e+002 1.02764698781911e+002 5.92631834908900e+001 -1.63847198268682e+002 3.88351450743345e+001 2.23957677657371e+001 -8.21459301650425e+001 1.94702695495242e+001 1.12282736251609e+001 1.42050114509705e-001 5.42395331963704e+002 3.62545133005136e+003 -3.08223673579051e+002 1.02764698781912e+002 -8.64244884493590e+002 -5.83974660293083e+001 3.88351450743346e+001 -3.26601214881076e+002 -2.20686100587384e+001 1.94702695495243e+001 -1.63743786118600e+002 -1.10642508378563e+001 -1.39975044334482e-001 3.12792957735256e+002 -3.08223673579051e+002 3.05393871002267e+003 5.92631834908892e+001 -5.83974660293072e+001 -1.67045111561544e+003 2.23957677657369e+001 -2.20686100587380e+001 -6.31269416282552e+002 1.12282736251608e+001 -1.10642508378562e+001 -3.16491303685511e+002 -8.07219486347576e-002 -4.33568818762285e+002 1.02764698781912e+002 5.92631834908892e+001 3.05705234691676e+003 1.94702695495243e+001 1.12282736251609e+001 -3.10432390990194e+001 7.35788409400045e+000 4.24320452778091e+000 -1.55637434028201e+001 3.68892626382961e+000 2.12736004337102e+000 2.69134639796324e-002 1.02764698781911e+002 -8.64244884493590e+002 -5.83974660293072e+001 1.94702695495243e+001 1.38739567862949e+003 -1.10642508378564e+001 7.35788409400046e+000 -6.18793590047087e+001 -4.18121973323598e+000 3.68892626382961e+000 -3.10236461603872e+001 -2.09628353637068e+000 -2.65203116994752e-002 5.92631834908900e+001 -5.83974660293083e+001 -1.67045111561544e+003 1.12282736251609e+001 -1.10642508378564e+001 1.93257299891602e+003 4.24320452778095e+000 -4.18121973323608e+000 -1.19603189023852e+002 2.12736004337104e+000 -2.09628353637073e+000 -5.99638890190757e+001 -1.52939493533380e-002 -1.63847198268682e+002 3.88351450743346e+001 2.23957677657369e+001 -3.10432390990194e+001 7.35788409400046e+000 4.24320452778095e+000 1.17458284064792e+003 2.78057056185273e+000 1.60352207878461e+000 -5.88159397256587e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 8.03936924731182e-001 1.01706937352098e-002 3.88351450743345e+001 -3.26601214881076e+002 -2.20686100587380e+001 7.35788409400045e+000 -6.18793590047087e+001 -4.18121973323608e+000 2.78057056185273e+000 5.62796689383605e+002 -1.58009780452421e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 -1.17239461960602e+001 -7.92193002235745e-001 -1.00221200905907e-002 2.23957677657371e+001 -2.20686100587384e+001 -6.31269416282552e+002 4.24320452778091e+000 -4.18121973323598e+000 -1.19603189023852e+002 1.60352207878461e+000 -1.58009780452421e+000 8.04730926633142e+002 8.03936924731193e-001 -7.92193002235768e-001 -2.26605668763660e+001 -5.77963784194882e-003 -8.21459301650425e+001 1.94702695495243e+001 1.12282736251608e+001 -1.55637434028201e+001 3.68892626382961e+000 2.12736004337104e+000 -5.88159397256587e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 8.03936924731193e-001 5.91818076302652e+002 6.98920831340229e-001 4.03059357583717e-001 5.09914790201372e-003 1.94702695495242e+001 -1.63743786118600e+002 -1.10642508378562e+001 3.68892626382961e+000 -3.10236461603872e+001 -2.09628353637073e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 -1.17239461960602e+001 -7.92193002235768e-001 6.98920831340229e-001 2.88008091155987e+002 -3.97171460522504e-001 -5.02465947398927e-003 1.12282736251609e+001 -1.10642508378563e+001 -3.16491303685511e+002 2.12736004337102e+000 -2.09628353637068e+000 -5.99638890190757e+001 8.03936924731182e-001 -7.92193002235745e-001 -2.26605668763660e+001 4.03059357583717e-001 -3.97171460522504e-001 4.14756970327712e+002 -2.89766155027817e-003 1.42050114509705e-001 -1.39975044334482e-001 -8.07219486347576e-002 2.69134639796324e-002 -2.65203116994752e-002 -1.52939493533380e-002 1.01706937352098e-002 -1.00221200905907e-002 -5.77963784194882e-003 5.09914790201372e-003 -5.02465947398927e-003 -2.89766155027817e-003 9.96334136762529e-003 //== Variance of Gaussian prior on column 3 of Aplus ==// 1.42803978954911e+004 5.42395331963704e+002 3.12792957735256e+002 -4.33568818762285e+002 1.02764698781911e+002 5.92631834908900e+001 -1.63847198268682e+002 3.88351450743345e+001 2.23957677657371e+001 -8.21459301650425e+001 1.94702695495242e+001 1.12282736251609e+001 1.42050114509705e-001 5.42395331963704e+002 3.62545133005136e+003 -3.08223673579051e+002 1.02764698781912e+002 -8.64244884493590e+002 -5.83974660293083e+001 3.88351450743346e+001 -3.26601214881076e+002 -2.20686100587384e+001 1.94702695495243e+001 -1.63743786118600e+002 -1.10642508378563e+001 -1.39975044334482e-001 3.12792957735256e+002 -3.08223673579051e+002 3.05393871002267e+003 5.92631834908892e+001 -5.83974660293072e+001 -1.67045111561544e+003 2.23957677657369e+001 -2.20686100587380e+001 -6.31269416282552e+002 1.12282736251608e+001 -1.10642508378562e+001 -3.16491303685511e+002 -8.07219486347576e-002 -4.33568818762285e+002 1.02764698781912e+002 5.92631834908892e+001 3.05705234691676e+003 1.94702695495243e+001 1.12282736251609e+001 -3.10432390990194e+001 7.35788409400045e+000 4.24320452778091e+000 -1.55637434028201e+001 3.68892626382961e+000 2.12736004337102e+000 2.69134639796324e-002 1.02764698781911e+002 -8.64244884493590e+002 -5.83974660293072e+001 1.94702695495243e+001 1.38739567862949e+003 -1.10642508378564e+001 7.35788409400046e+000 -6.18793590047087e+001 -4.18121973323598e+000 3.68892626382961e+000 -3.10236461603872e+001 -2.09628353637068e+000 -2.65203116994752e-002 5.92631834908900e+001 -5.83974660293083e+001 -1.67045111561544e+003 1.12282736251609e+001 -1.10642508378564e+001 1.93257299891602e+003 4.24320452778095e+000 -4.18121973323608e+000 -1.19603189023852e+002 2.12736004337104e+000 -2.09628353637073e+000 -5.99638890190757e+001 -1.52939493533380e-002 -1.63847198268682e+002 3.88351450743346e+001 2.23957677657369e+001 -3.10432390990194e+001 7.35788409400046e+000 4.24320452778095e+000 1.17458284064792e+003 2.78057056185273e+000 1.60352207878461e+000 -5.88159397256587e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 8.03936924731182e-001 1.01706937352098e-002 3.88351450743345e+001 -3.26601214881076e+002 -2.20686100587380e+001 7.35788409400045e+000 -6.18793590047087e+001 -4.18121973323608e+000 2.78057056185273e+000 5.62796689383605e+002 -1.58009780452421e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 -1.17239461960602e+001 -7.92193002235745e-001 -1.00221200905907e-002 2.23957677657371e+001 -2.20686100587384e+001 -6.31269416282552e+002 4.24320452778091e+000 -4.18121973323598e+000 -1.19603189023852e+002 1.60352207878461e+000 -1.58009780452421e+000 8.04730926633142e+002 8.03936924731193e-001 -7.92193002235768e-001 -2.26605668763660e+001 -5.77963784194882e-003 -8.21459301650425e+001 1.94702695495243e+001 1.12282736251608e+001 -1.55637434028201e+001 3.68892626382961e+000 2.12736004337104e+000 -5.88159397256587e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 8.03936924731193e-001 5.91818076302652e+002 6.98920831340229e-001 4.03059357583717e-001 5.09914790201372e-003 1.94702695495242e+001 -1.63743786118600e+002 -1.10642508378562e+001 3.68892626382961e+000 -3.10236461603872e+001 -2.09628353637073e+000 1.39405835196748e+000 -1.17239461960602e+001 -7.92193002235768e-001 6.98920831340229e-001 2.88008091155987e+002 -3.97171460522504e-001 -5.02465947398927e-003 1.12282736251609e+001 -1.10642508378563e+001 -3.16491303685511e+002 2.12736004337102e+000 -2.09628353637068e+000 -5.99638890190757e+001 8.03936924731182e-001 -7.92193002235745e-001 -2.26605668763660e+001 4.03059357583717e-001 -3.97171460522504e-001 4.14756970327712e+002 -2.89766155027817e-003 1.42050114509705e-001 -1.39975044334482e-001 -8.07219486347576e-002 2.69134639796324e-002 -2.65203116994752e-002 -1.52939493533380e-002 1.01706937352098e-002 -1.00221200905907e-002 -5.77963784194882e-003 5.09914790201372e-003 -5.02465947398927e-003 -2.89766155027817e-003 9.96334136762529e-003 //== Specification (0=default 1=Sims-Zha 2=Random Walk) ==// 2 //== Translation table for coefficient states ==// 0 0 0 0 0 0 //== Translation table for variance states ==// 0 1 0 1 0 1 //== Metropolis kernel scales for A0 ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 //== Data Y (nobs x nvars) ==// 5.73661042563000e-003 9.62549616258300e-003 3.93000000000000e-002 -8.30936099953100e-003 1.77216975650650e-002 3.70000000000000e-002 -1.58187345689090e-002 1.88022483644330e-002 2.94000000000000e-002 -3.81141882741170e-002 1.77531639410620e-002 2.30000000000000e-002 -4.13998622046390e-002 4.53899980287400e-003 2.00000000000000e-002 -3.22177076978260e-002 7.37533222173000e-003 1.73000000000000e-002 -2.56463570071950e-002 1.05834183865230e-002 1.68000000000000e-002 -1.48972225708720e-002 1.03662698810150e-002 2.40000000000000e-002 -6.62204800832400e-003 2.30429232858400e-002 2.46000000000000e-002 -5.30270796230600e-003 1.04681789079870e-002 2.61000000000000e-002 -5.72753877732300e-003 1.08152483013830e-002 2.85000000000000e-002 -1.29090196432780e-002 1.39639938314950e-002 2.92000000000000e-002 -9.60821932968100e-003 1.13069152023740e-002 2.97000000000000e-002 -6.98472941942500e-003 4.05548122752600e-003 2.96000000000000e-002 1.81761034346000e-003 7.37527991893200e-003 3.33000000000000e-002 -4.50380232456000e-004 2.38872835468070e-002 3.45000000000000e-002 1.16246685649490e-002 1.43077614198740e-002 3.46000000000000e-002 1.29486567760930e-002 1.31547130065710e-002 3.49000000000000e-002 1.61602850466000e-002 1.95316539480000e-002 3.46000000000000e-002 8.40813983959000e-003 1.85222302017260e-002 3.58000000000000e-002 2.21533708854230e-002 1.77090797267160e-002 3.97000000000000e-002 2.48442017570360e-002 1.78121256258340e-002 4.08000000000000e-002 3.40506901864700e-002 1.77331612165450e-002 4.07000000000000e-002 4.68933070713200e-002 2.48540868526230e-002 4.17000000000000e-002 5.99724607688350e-002 2.48799595639280e-002 4.56000000000000e-002 5.22891864155850e-002 3.79794695535590e-002 4.91000000000000e-002 4.77411886581490e-002 3.90490030407280e-002 5.41000000000000e-002 4.46675615740960e-002 3.56711799480470e-002 5.56000000000000e-002 4.24278365659450e-002 1.93748792699630e-002 4.82000000000000e-002 3.14628740331190e-002 2.53097927213010e-002 3.99000000000000e-002 2.84376599501430e-002 3.72101139208880e-002 3.89000000000000e-002 2.51560250485380e-002 4.49473633150810e-002 4.17000000000000e-002 3.48556195791030e-002 4.37662562821620e-002 4.79000000000000e-002 4.11461058987170e-002 4.54850891478720e-002 5.98000000000000e-002 3.76085223394910e-002 3.93122133982660e-002 5.94000000000000e-002 3.17556881688080e-002 5.71473400977370e-002 5.92000000000000e-002 3.75475363387420e-002 4.08201028820310e-002 6.57000000000000e-002 3.07807988079690e-002 5.47950999572680e-002 8.33000000000000e-002 2.76228833568090e-002 5.96747854740160e-002 8.98000000000000e-002 1.36874914712520e-002 5.15265949477100e-002 8.94000000000000e-002 3.03652045905500e-003 5.71101060042530e-002 8.57000000000000e-002 -3.89461208409100e-003 5.83107205040000e-002 7.88000000000000e-002 -3.70317293623000e-003 3.21626941949120e-002 6.70000000000000e-002 -2.29538532158480e-002 5.21938596912300e-002 5.57000000000000e-002 -3.97748341929100e-003 6.13433905942800e-002 3.86000000000000e-002 -6.64300889909700e-003 5.45481164874020e-002 4.56000000000000e-002 -6.99668286969200e-003 4.05911353205900e-002 5.47000000000000e-002 -1.23473977165780e-002 3.22767979669840e-002 4.75000000000000e-002 -2.94734952095300e-003 6.78050398255680e-002 3.54000000000000e-002 1.21207645000720e-002 2.36864347246280e-002 4.30000000000000e-002 1.32313483797350e-002 3.71877441160420e-002 4.74000000000000e-002 2.09870281386040e-002 4.78893639700780e-002 5.14000000000000e-002 3.74857547065750e-002 5.39655488079820e-002 6.54000000000000e-002 4.03188796932930e-002 6.83406388291760e-002 7.82000000000000e-002 2.62185112865600e-002 7.89588740434820e-002 1.05600000000000e-001 2.69296955762890e-002 7.09977946650100e-002 1.00000000000000e-001 9.45545862779100e-003 8.42426991312460e-002 9.32000000000000e-002 3.61747378970300e-003 9.15659846016690e-002 1.12500000000000e-001 -1.46856350403710e-002 1.29447914655882e-001 1.20900000000000e-001 -2.70958202185570e-002 1.28131356104606e-001 9.35000000000000e-002 -4.74902914998450e-002 9.56342292665310e-002 6.30000000000000e-002 -4.84933795938020e-002 6.01056972933200e-002 5.42000000000000e-002 -3.99434498056990e-002 7.67523037296650e-002 6.16000000000000e-002 -3.50772060717790e-002 7.29952588076480e-002 5.41000000000000e-002 -2.09060713560660e-002 4.56795852260990e-002 4.83000000000000e-002 -2.15310964100720e-002 4.35923607928750e-002 5.20000000000000e-002 -2.47354767752090e-002 5.51878812225060e-002 5.28000000000000e-002 -2.55615290998410e-002 7.01823065544440e-002 4.87000000000000e-002 -2.15759019850430e-002 6.83587477812650e-002 4.66000000000000e-002 -1.02828128974400e-002 6.58038899229060e-002 5.16000000000000e-002 -9.13242072603000e-004 5.61727863411620e-002 5.82000000000000e-002 -9.54868366243000e-003 6.92051743252600e-002 6.51000000000000e-002 -1.49575438196190e-002 6.85088197568440e-002 6.76000000000000e-002 1.50695617088100e-002 7.93005716877450e-002 7.28000000000000e-002 1.62834752525370e-002 7.08721500591680e-002 8.10000000000000e-002 2.09084668370140e-002 8.41206637615490e-002 9.58000000000000e-002 1.45593742402830e-002 7.46549897477490e-002 1.00700000000000e-001 7.40267927689900e-003 1.00650488454145e-001 1.01800000000000e-001 6.78676580449000e-003 8.48691220454940e-002 1.09500000000000e-001 2.09645698749700e-003 8.10738298677210e-002 1.35800000000000e-001 -2.16187344456400e-003 9.07014609263560e-002 1.50500000000000e-001 -2.98667608682270e-002 9.13068831125460e-002 1.26900000000000e-001 -3.88072003942120e-002 9.38331669412190e-002 9.84000000000000e-002 -2.74919676503260e-002 1.17189344840632e-001 1.58500000000000e-001 -1.43663968486050e-002 1.08301565252559e-001 1.65700000000000e-001 -2.89902496388500e-002 7.24883036593090e-002 1.77800000000000e-001 -2.36037991016640e-002 7.57350912813790e-002 1.75800000000000e-001 -4.27337579103070e-002 7.17836386154720e-002 1.35900000000000e-001 -6.58342566124440e-002 5.78153469347830e-002 1.42300000000000e-001 -6.70761735171950e-002 5.07742153097800e-002 1.45100000000000e-001 -7.74937548393970e-002 5.65435083502030e-002 1.10100000000000e-001 -8.34371008673000e-002 4.32850235485420e-002 9.29000000000000e-002 -7.81404435821860e-002 3.47018843339450e-002 8.65000000000000e-002 -6.29049723706900e-002 2.93807281935730e-002 8.80000000000000e-002 -5.05756742261400e-002 4.13785279086040e-002 9.46000000000000e-002 -3.75302935715480e-002 2.94928183687490e-002 9.43000000000000e-002 -2.54805197539070e-002 5.04894712125660e-002 9.69000000000000e-002 -1.58111471284300e-002 3.64556026298710e-002 1.05600000000000e-001 -1.36231950245110e-002 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1.02000000000000e-002 1.00000000000000e+000 -1.58512761136770e-002 1.45776244364190e-002 1.43000000000000e-002 -1.81726401653000e-002 3.85245626831390e-002 1.01000000000000e-002 -1.93729638823400e-002 3.61831143493940e-002 1.00000000000000e-002 -2.23894867764770e-002 1.87596538953700e-002 1.00000000000000e-002 1.00000000000000e+000 -1.51456641667330e-002 2.73397573657900e-002 1.95000000000000e-002 -1.58512761136770e-002 1.45776244364190e-002 1.43000000000000e-002 -1.81726401653000e-002 3.85245626831390e-002 1.01000000000000e-002 -1.93729638823400e-002 3.61831143493940e-002 1.00000000000000e-002 1.00000000000000e+000 -1.32849414073900e-002 3.08284567320560e-002 2.47000000000000e-002 -1.51456641667330e-002 2.73397573657900e-002 1.95000000000000e-002 -1.58512761136770e-002 1.45776244364190e-002 1.43000000000000e-002 -1.81726401653000e-002 3.85245626831390e-002 1.01000000000000e-002 1.00000000000000e+000 -1.26794381443800e-002 2.56601384844410e-002 2.94000000000000e-002 -1.32849414073900e-002 3.08284567320560e-002 2.47000000000000e-002 -1.51456641667330e-002 2.73397573657900e-002 1.95000000000000e-002 -1.58512761136770e-002 1.45776244364190e-002 1.43000000000000e-002 1.00000000000000e+000 -1.01338866331420e-002 3.30745534984900e-002 3.46000000000000e-002 -1.26794381443800e-002 2.56601384844410e-002 2.94000000000000e-002 -1.32849414073900e-002 3.08284567320560e-002 2.47000000000000e-002 -1.51456641667330e-002 2.73397573657900e-002 1.95000000000000e-002 1.00000000000000e+000 Specification file: init_test_ms_variances.dat Initialization file: init_test_ms_variances.dat Initialization header: "Initial: " Number free parameters in transition matrix: 2 Number free parameters in theta: 48 Initial likelihood Value: 1856.59 Initial prior Value: -199.228 Initial posterior Value: 1657.36 Time stamp: Tue Jan 07 14:47:21 2014 Objective function (initial): 1657.36 Objective function (run 1): 1753.79 (Norm parameter change: 9.471179e+001 Objective function change: 9.643067e+001) Time stamp: Tue Jan 07 14:48:15 2014 Elapsed time: 54 seconds Final likelihood Value: 1968 Final prior Value: -212.125 Final posterior Value: 1755.87 //== Posterior mode: Free parameters ==// 9.720079864972e+001 -6.098900241421e+001 -6.514502785792e+000 -1.551745969234e+001 -4.615307086740e+000 7.528259679711e+001 1.425545681164e+001 8.161708976628e+000 9.177269798107e+000 -8.740542544744e-002 -5.952219501840e+000 -3.287132141921e+001 -2.163672921028e+001 -2.946915928445e+000 2.266596566860e+001 -7.995446501528e-002 -2.053764812788e+000 2.933619647372e-001 8.663382262051e-002 8.907305412297e+000 -3.135158935736e+001 1.023382963055e+001 1.947391120104e-001 6.968975680214e+000 -1.146221003813e+001 -6.682279023546e-001 6.314239539837e+000 3.015717747739e+000 -3.489981619664e+000 1.824360078968e+001 -3.099833280327e+000 9.782649265517e-002 1.332329594527e+001 7.949911788543e+000 2.180745524301e+001 -6.020066816987e+000 4.447076806978e+000 -3.438966603804e+001 -3.765551464200e+000 -1.829852349862e+000 1.248974170379e+001 -1.984447837863e+000 -3.873982145607e+000 -3.346166438982e+000 -1.436465269550e-002 3.161934627926e+000 4.735377008575e+000 1.395480984892e+001 8.729990706682e-001 3.497669239773e-002 //== Posterior mode: Base transition matrix ==// 8.72999070668241e-001 3.49766923977262e-002 1.27000929331759e-001 9.65023307602274e-001 //== Posterior mode: A0[1] ==// 9.72007986497151e+001 6.51450278579238e+000 -1.55174596923399e+001 0.00000000000000e+000 6.09890024142111e+001 -4.61530708674003e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 -0.00000000000000e+000 7.52825967971148e+001 //== Posterior mode: Aplus[1] ==// 1.11456255461352e+002 1.54218081980895e+001 -2.19416374707285e+000 8.16170897662843e+000 2.96374130568461e+001 3.33460470180332e+000 9.17726979810691e+000 1.02338296305498e+001 9.70900520401247e+001 -8.74054254474391e-002 1.94739112010379e-001 -6.02006681698745e+000 -5.95221950183966e+000 6.96897568021419e+000 4.44707680697765e+000 -3.28713214192068e+001 -1.14622100381278e+001 -3.43896660380401e+001 -2.16367292102821e+001 -6.68227902354568e-001 -3.76555146419963e+000 -2.94691592844500e+000 6.31423953983718e+000 -1.82985234986205e+000 2.26659656686006e+001 3.01571774773931e+000 1.24897417037874e+001 -7.99544650152823e-002 -3.48998161966358e+000 -1.98444783786265e+000 -2.05376481278801e+000 1.82436007896791e+001 -3.87398214560724e+000 2.93361964737237e-001 -3.09983328032703e+000 -3.34616643898176e+000 8.66338226205068e-002 9.78264926551734e-002 -1.43646526955018e-002 //== Posterior mode: Zeta[1] ==// 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.00000000000000e+000 //== Posterior mode: A0[2] ==// 9.72007986497151e+001 6.51450278579238e+000 -1.55174596923399e+001 0.00000000000000e+000 6.09890024142111e+001 -4.61530708674003e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 -0.00000000000000e+000 7.52825967971148e+001 //== Posterior mode: Aplus[2] ==// 1.11456255461352e+002 1.54218081980895e+001 -2.19416374707285e+000 8.16170897662843e+000 2.96374130568461e+001 3.33460470180332e+000 9.17726979810691e+000 1.02338296305498e+001 9.70900520401247e+001 -8.74054254474391e-002 1.94739112010379e-001 -6.02006681698745e+000 -5.95221950183966e+000 6.96897568021419e+000 4.44707680697765e+000 -3.28713214192068e+001 -1.14622100381278e+001 -3.43896660380401e+001 -2.16367292102821e+001 -6.68227902354568e-001 -3.76555146419963e+000 -2.94691592844500e+000 6.31423953983718e+000 -1.82985234986205e+000 2.26659656686006e+001 3.01571774773931e+000 1.24897417037874e+001 -7.99544650152823e-002 -3.48998161966358e+000 -1.98444783786265e+000 -2.05376481278801e+000 1.82436007896791e+001 -3.87398214560724e+000 2.93361964737237e-001 -3.09983328032703e+000 -3.34616643898176e+000 8.66338226205068e-002 9.78264926551734e-002 -1.43646526955018e-002 //== Posterior mode: Zeta[2] ==// 3.16193462792619e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 4.73537700857498e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 0.00000000000000e+000 1.39548098489190e+001