Starting Dynare (version 4.4.3). Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 13 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives: - order 1 Computing dynamic model derivatives: - order 1 - order 2 Processing outputs ...done Preprocessing completed. Starting MATLAB/Octave computing. on(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives: - order 1 Computing dynamic model derivatives: - order 1 - order 2 Processing outputs ...done Preprocessing completed. Starting MATLAB/Octave computing. Loading 70 observations from EA.xls Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): 891.4015 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.5058 0.0888 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 5.8416 0.3956 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.4192 0.0719 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.6005 0.0356 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 6.7242 0.3998 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9806 0.0463 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9782 0.0076 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.8847 0.0781 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.8060 0.0221 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.5852 0.0677 gamm 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0000 0.0030 gamm 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.5547 0.1117 gamm 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0126 0.0017 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0461 0.0068 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0124 0.0006 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0237 0.0090 invg 2.0000 Log data density [Laplace approximation] is 836.266880. Estimation::mcmc: Multiple chains mode. Estimation::mcmc: Old mh-files successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Old metropolis.log file successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Creation of a new metropolis.log file. Estimation::mcmc: Searching for initial values... Estimation::mcmc: Initial values found! Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok! Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in EA_str_86/metropolis/EA_str_mh_history_0.mat Estimation::mcmc: Number of mh files: 1 per block. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated files: 2. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of iterations: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Current acceptance ratio per chain: Chain 1: 28.9942% Chain 2: 29.914% Estimation::mcmc::diagnostics: Univariate convergence diagnostic, Brooks and Gelman (1998): Parameter 1... Done! Parameter 2... Done! Parameter 3... Done! Parameter 4... Done! Parameter 5... Done! Parameter 6... Done! Parameter 7... Done! Parameter 8... Done! Parameter 9... Done! Parameter 10... Done! Parameter 11... Done! Parameter 12... Done! Parameter 13... Done! Parameter 14... Done! Parameter 15... Done! Parameter 16... Done! Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 1. Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 1 to 1. Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 1 I'll start at line 2250. Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep 2750 draws. Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior mean and covariance... Done! Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior log marginal density (modified harmonic mean)... Done! ESTIMATION RESULTS Log data density is 830.501360. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute HPD Intervals. Skipping their computation. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute deciles. Skipping their computation. parameters prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.5342 0.4033 0.6781 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 5.4571 3.9516 6.5639 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.2888 0.1931 0.4179 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.5731 0.4892 0.6399 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 5.4311 4.1634 6.6286 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9830 0.9697 0.9968 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9794 0.9713 0.9871 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.9086 0.8480 0.9744 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.8294 0.7457 0.9077 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.5927 1.4902 1.6883 gamma 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0036 0.0000 0.0089 gamma 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.5986 1.4644 1.7740 gamma 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0139 0.0121 0.0155 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0513 0.0334 0.0702 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0129 0.0119 0.0139 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0300 0.0206 0.0399 invg 2.0000 Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean), done! Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point), done! Loading 70 observations from EA.xls Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): 891.4015 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.5058 0.0888 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 5.8416 0.3956 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.4192 0.0719 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.6005 0.0356 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 6.7242 0.3998 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9806 0.0463 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9782 0.0076 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.8847 0.0781 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.8060 0.0221 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.5852 0.0677 gamm 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0000 0.0030 gamm 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.5547 0.1117 gamm 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0126 0.0017 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0461 0.0068 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0124 0.0006 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0237 0.0090 invg 2.0000 Log data density [Laplace approximation] is 836.266880. Estimation::mcmc: Multiple chains mode. Estimation::mcmc: Old mh-files successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Old metropolis.log file successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Creation of a new metropolis.log file. Estimation::mcmc: Searching for initial values... Estimation::mcmc: Initial values found! Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok! Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in EA_str_87/metropolis/EA_str_mh_history_0.mat Estimation::mcmc: Number of mh files: 1 per block. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated files: 2. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of iterations: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Current acceptance ratio per chain: Chain 1: 18.6163% Chain 2: 24.7151% Estimation::mcmc::diagnostics: Univariate convergence diagnostic, Brooks and Gelman (1998): Parameter 1... Done! Parameter 2... Done! Parameter 3... Done! Parameter 4... Done! Parameter 5... Done! Parameter 6... Done! Parameter 7... Done! Parameter 8... Done! Parameter 9... Done! Parameter 10... Done! Parameter 11... Done! Parameter 12... Done! Parameter 13... Done! Parameter 14... Done! Parameter 15... Done! Parameter 16... Done! Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 1. Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 1 to 1. Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 1 I'll start at line 2250. Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep 2750 draws. Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior mean and covariance... Done! Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior log marginal density (modified harmonic mean)... Done! ESTIMATION RESULTS Log data density is 824.919619. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute HPD Intervals. Skipping their computation. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute deciles. Skipping their computation. parameters prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.4912 0.3729 0.6221 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 6.0634 4.3319 8.6812 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.3982 0.2506 0.4890 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.6015 0.5145 0.6860 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 6.5383 5.7786 7.3255 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9836 0.9698 0.9968 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9852 0.9796 0.9904 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.8808 0.7913 0.9527 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.8135 0.7617 0.8771 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.6256 1.4459 1.7670 gamma 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0033 0.0000 0.0092 gamma 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.5286 1.3730 1.6718 gamma 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0138 0.0119 0.0157 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0708 0.0509 0.0891 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0126 0.0118 0.0135 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0319 0.0191 0.0404 invg 2.0000 Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean), done! Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point), done! Loading 70 observations from EA.xls Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): 891.4015 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.5058 0.0888 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 5.8416 0.3956 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.4192 0.0719 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.6005 0.0356 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 6.7242 0.3998 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9806 0.0463 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9782 0.0076 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.8847 0.0781 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.8060 0.0221 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.5852 0.0677 gamm 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0000 0.0030 gamm 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.5547 0.1117 gamm 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0126 0.0017 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0461 0.0068 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0124 0.0006 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0237 0.0090 invg 2.0000 Log data density [Laplace approximation] is 836.266880. Estimation::mcmc: Multiple chains mode. Estimation::mcmc: Old mh-files successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Old metropolis.log file successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Creation of a new metropolis.log file. Estimation::mcmc: Searching for initial values... Estimation::mcmc: Initial values found! Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok! Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in EA_str_88/metropolis/EA_str_mh_history_0.mat Estimation::mcmc: Number of mh files: 1 per block. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated files: 2. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of iterations: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Current acceptance ratio per chain: Chain 1: 22.6555% Chain 2: 22.5355% Estimation::mcmc::diagnostics: Univariate convergence diagnostic, Brooks and Gelman (1998): Parameter 1... Done! Parameter 2... Done! Parameter 3... Done! Parameter 4... Done! Parameter 5... Done! Parameter 6... Done! Parameter 7... Done! Parameter 8... Done! Parameter 9... Done! Parameter 10... Done! Parameter 11... Done! Parameter 12... Done! Parameter 13... Done! Parameter 14... Done! Parameter 15... Done! Parameter 16... Done! Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 1. Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 1 to 1. Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 1 I'll start at line 2250. Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep 2750 draws. Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior mean and covariance... Done! Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior log marginal density (modified harmonic mean)... Done! ESTIMATION RESULTS Log data density is 822.438185. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute HPD Intervals. Skipping their computation. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute deciles. Skipping their computation. parameters prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.8953 0.7293 1.1415 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 5.3104 4.2256 6.2947 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.2491 0.1650 0.3180 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.4903 0.3992 0.5818 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 7.0902 6.2178 7.9942 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9849 0.9733 0.9978 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9828 0.9750 0.9910 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.8342 0.7324 0.9284 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.7483 0.7047 0.8115 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.5269 1.4137 1.6508 gamma 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0018 0.0000 0.0054 gamma 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.7460 1.5642 1.9154 gamma 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0135 0.0121 0.0150 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0648 0.0402 0.0969 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0137 0.0119 0.0159 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0255 0.0184 0.0329 invg 2.0000 Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean), done! Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point), done! Loading 70 observations from EA.xls Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): 891.4015 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.5058 0.0888 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 5.8416 0.3956 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.4192 0.0719 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.6005 0.0356 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 6.7242 0.3998 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9806 0.0463 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9782 0.0076 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.8847 0.0781 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.8060 0.0221 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.5852 0.0677 gamm 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0000 0.0030 gamm 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.5547 0.1117 gamm 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0126 0.0017 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0461 0.0068 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0124 0.0006 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0237 0.0090 invg 2.0000 Log data density [Laplace approximation] is 836.266880. Estimation::mcmc: Multiple chains mode. Estimation::mcmc: Old metropolis.log file successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Creation of a new metropolis.log file. Estimation::mcmc: Searching for initial values... Estimation::mcmc: Initial values found! Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok! Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in EA_str_89/metropolis/EA_str_mh_history_0.mat Estimation::mcmc: Number of mh files: 1 per block. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated files: 2. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of iterations: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Current acceptance ratio per chain: Chain 1: 25.2549% Chain 2: 16.0568% Estimation::mcmc::diagnostics: Univariate convergence diagnostic, Brooks and Gelman (1998): Parameter 1... Done! Parameter 2... Done! Parameter 3... Done! Parameter 4... Done! Parameter 5... Done! Parameter 6... Done! Parameter 7... Done! Parameter 8... Done! Parameter 9... Done! Parameter 10... Done! Parameter 11... Done! Parameter 12... Done! Parameter 13... Done! Parameter 14... Done! Parameter 15... Done! Parameter 16... Done! Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 1. Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 1 to 1. Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 1 I'll start at line 2250. Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep 2750 draws. Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior mean and covariance... Done! Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior log marginal density (modified harmonic mean)... Done! ESTIMATION RESULTS Log data density is 826.510937. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute HPD Intervals. Skipping their computation. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute deciles. Skipping their computation. parameters prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.5038 0.3772 0.6117 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 5.3187 3.5421 6.6593 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.3887 0.2908 0.4693 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.5901 0.5163 0.6584 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 7.5964 7.0396 8.1731 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9817 0.9694 0.9961 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9808 0.9729 0.9873 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.8433 0.7473 0.9456 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.8411 0.7722 0.9097 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.5813 1.5036 1.6652 gamma 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0012 0.0000 0.0032 gamma 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.6377 1.4448 1.8577 gamma 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0138 0.0119 0.0153 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0550 0.0385 0.0719 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0131 0.0118 0.0145 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0289 0.0190 0.0367 invg 2.0000 Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean), done! Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point), done! Loading 70 observations from EA.xls Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): 891.4015 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.5058 0.0888 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 5.8416 0.3956 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.4192 0.0719 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.6005 0.0356 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 6.7242 0.3998 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9806 0.0463 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9782 0.0076 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.8847 0.0781 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.8060 0.0221 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.5852 0.0677 gamm 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0000 0.0030 gamm 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.5547 0.1117 gamm 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0126 0.0017 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0461 0.0068 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0124 0.0006 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0237 0.0090 invg 2.0000 Log data density [Laplace approximation] is 836.266880. Estimation::mcmc: Multiple chains mode. Estimation::mcmc: Old mh-files successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Old metropolis.log file successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Creation of a new metropolis.log file. Estimation::mcmc: Searching for initial values... Estimation::mcmc: Initial values found! Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok! Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in EA_str_90/metropolis/EA_str_mh_history_0.mat Estimation::mcmc: Number of mh files: 1 per block. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated files: 2. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of iterations: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Current acceptance ratio per chain: Chain 1: 20.8158% Chain 2: 18.0964% Estimation::mcmc::diagnostics: Univariate convergence diagnostic, Brooks and Gelman (1998): Parameter 1... Done! Parameter 2... Done! Parameter 3... Done! Parameter 4... Done! Parameter 5... Done! Parameter 6... Done! Parameter 7... Done! Parameter 8... Done! Parameter 9... Done! Parameter 10... Done! Parameter 11... Done! Parameter 12... Done! Parameter 13... Done! Parameter 14... Done! Parameter 15... Done! Parameter 16... Done! Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws: 5000. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 1. Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 1 to 1. Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 1 I'll start at line 2250. Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep 2750 draws. Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior mean and covariance... Done! Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior log marginal density (modified harmonic mean)... Done! ESTIMATION RESULTS Log data density is 826.794737. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute HPD Intervals. Skipping their computation. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute deciles. Skipping their computation. parameters prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev sigma 1.000 0.5233 0.4042 0.6411 norm 0.3750 eta 2.000 4.8928 4.0733 5.6370 norm 1.5000 h 0.500 0.3082 0.1563 0.4379 beta 0.1500 alpha 0.600 0.5549 0.4776 0.6358 beta 0.1500 epsilon 5.000 7.3824 6.3444 8.5386 norm 1.5000 rho_a 0.800 0.9828 0.9699 0.9961 beta 0.1000 rho_e 0.800 0.9809 0.9735 0.9886 beta 0.1000 rho_v 0.800 0.8908 0.8343 0.9653 beta 0.1000 rho_i 0.800 0.7759 0.6811 0.8511 beta 0.1000 phi_pi 1.500 1.5784 1.4709 1.6570 gamma 0.1000 phi_y 0.125 0.0014 0.0000 0.0043 gamma 0.2000 phi_delta1 0.800 1.5785 1.4528 1.7059 gamma 0.2000 standard deviation of shocks prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev e_a 0.100 0.0137 0.0120 0.0156 invg 2.0000 e_e 0.100 0.0546 0.0358 0.0756 invg 2.0000 e_u 0.100 0.0126 0.0118 0.0133 invg 2.0000 e_v 0.100 0.0287 0.0215 0.0364 invg 2.0000 Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean), done! Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point) Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point), done! Loading 70 observations from EA.xls Total computing time : 0h09m26s