Starting Dynare (version 4.4.3). Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 40 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives: - order 1 - order 2 - derivatives of Jacobian/Hessian w.r. to parameters Computing dynamic model derivatives: - order 1 - order 2 - derivatives of Jacobian/Hessian w.r. to parameters Processing outputs ...done Preprocessing completed. Starting MATLAB/Octave computing. STEADY: numerical initial values or parameters incompatible with the following equations Columns 1 through 13 5 6 7 8 10 11 16 17 18 19 21 22 33 Columns 14 through 19 34 35 36 37 38 39 Check whether your model in truly linear The steadystate file changed the values for the following parameters: constepinf constebeta ccs cinvs crdpi ctrend The derivatives of jacobian and steady-state will be computed numerically (re-set options_.analytic_derivation_mode= -2) ==== Identification analysis ==== Testing prior mean Evaluating simulated moment uncertainty ... please wait Doing 249 replicas of length 300 periods. Simulated moment uncertainty ... done! All parameters are identified in the model (rank of H). WARNING !!! The rank of J (moments) is deficient! [cmap,crhopinf] are PAIRWISE collinear (with tol = 1.e-10) ! [cmaw,crhow] are PAIRWISE collinear (with tol = 1.e-10) ! ==== Identification analysis completed ==== You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command. Smoothed variables will be computed for the 40 endogenous variables of your model, this can be very long.... Choose one of the following options: [1] Consider all the endogenous variables. [2] Consider all the observed endogenous variables. [3] Stop Dynare and change the mod file. options [default is 1] = 1 The steadystate file changed the values for the following parameters: ccs cinvs crdpi The derivatives of jacobian and steady-state will be computed numerically (re-set options_.analytic_derivation_mode= -2) Loading 230 observations from usmodel_data.mat Restricting the sample to observations 71 to 230. Using in total 160 observations. Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -946.0329 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.0329182258 Predicted improvement: 147.104277589 lambda = 1; f = 946.0367324 lambda = 0.33333; f = 946.0329297 lambda = 0.11111; f = 923.6248001 Norm of dx 0.17153 ---- Improvement on iteration 1 = 22.408118093 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 923.6248001330 Predicted improvement: 112.238484664 lambda = 1; f = 923.6265162 lambda = 0.33333; f = 911.3875807 lambda = 0.11111; f = 910.4122426 Norm of dx 0.20189 ---- Improvement on iteration 2 = 13.212557579 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 910.4122425543 Predicted improvement: 26.672987852 lambda = 1; f = 909.9613633 lambda = 0.33333; f = 898.7936121 Norm of dx 0.087812 ---- Improvement on iteration 3 = 11.618630496 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 898.7936120582 Predicted improvement: 5.802569181 lambda = 1; f = 892.0868138 Norm of dx 0.038637 ---- Improvement on iteration 4 = 6.706798257 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 892.0868138016 Predicted improvement: 5.591468022 lambda = 1; f = 886.9872004 Norm of dx 0.055757 ---- Improvement on iteration 5 = 5.099613426 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 886.9872003760 Predicted improvement: 1.401645877 lambda = 1; f = 884.9145004 lambda = 1.9332; f = 884.3694986 Norm of dx 0.020935 ---- Improvement on iteration 6 = 2.617701807 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 884.3694985690 Predicted improvement: 2.866620643 lambda = 1; f = 880.8654215 Norm of dx 0.045912 ---- Improvement on iteration 7 = 3.504077079 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 880.8654214896 Predicted improvement: 2.834908897 lambda = 1; f = 876.2507292 lambda = 1.9332; f = 874.0934652 Norm of dx 0.060849 ---- Improvement on iteration 8 = 6.771956282 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 874.0934652074 Predicted improvement: 2.959418282 lambda = 1; f = 869.2344190 lambda = 1.9332; f = 866.7825168 Norm of dx 0.071684 ---- Improvement on iteration 9 = 7.310948436 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 866.7825167716 Predicted improvement: 4.101283780 lambda = 1; f = 860.8121962 lambda = 1.9332; f = 859.1480420 Norm of dx 0.10758 ---- Improvement on iteration 10 = 7.634474752 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 859.1480420199 Predicted improvement: 2.192913706 lambda = 1; f = 855.7107008 lambda = 1.9332; f = 854.1794386 Norm of dx 0.023827 ---- Improvement on iteration 11 = 4.968603467 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 854.1794385525 Predicted improvement: 1.958361246 lambda = 1; f = 851.2249197 lambda = 1.9332; f = 850.6832965 Norm of dx 0.083687 ---- Improvement on iteration 12 = 3.496142030 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 850.6832965229 Predicted improvement: 2.343341425 lambda = 1; f = 847.9014148 Norm of dx 0.041364 ---- Improvement on iteration 13 = 2.781881733 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 847.9014147897 Predicted improvement: 1.199595445 lambda = 1; f = 846.2564569 Norm of dx 0.031616 ---- Improvement on iteration 14 = 1.644957912 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 846.2564568780 Predicted improvement: 0.571105450 lambda = 1; f = 845.5031908 Norm of dx 0.034153 ---- Improvement on iteration 15 = 0.753266071 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 845.5031908073 Predicted improvement: 0.239358025 lambda = 1; f = 845.1547932 lambda = 1.9332; f = 845.0621070 Norm of dx 0.018316 ---- Improvement on iteration 16 = 0.441083785 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 845.0621070222 Predicted improvement: 0.130946321 lambda = 1; f = 844.8259872 lambda = 1.9332; f = 844.6519681 lambda = 3.7372; f = 844.4416719 Norm of dx 0.0058255 ---- Improvement on iteration 17 = 0.620435155 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 844.4416718676 Predicted improvement: 0.262527362 lambda = 1; f = 844.0108072 lambda = 1.9332; f = 843.7796061 Norm of dx 0.023054 ---- Improvement on iteration 18 = 0.662065811 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 843.7796060566 Predicted improvement: 0.320652865 lambda = 1; f = 843.3013596 lambda = 1.9332; f = 843.1565800 Norm of dx 0.033115 ---- Improvement on iteration 19 = 0.623026078 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 843.1565799785 Predicted improvement: 0.158615787 lambda = 1; f = 842.9027675 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.7779241 Norm of dx 0.0069855 ---- Improvement on iteration 20 = 0.378655842 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.7779241364 Predicted improvement: 0.118751577 lambda = 1; f = 842.6004164 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.5440281 Norm of dx 0.014951 ---- Improvement on iteration 21 = 0.233896064 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.5440280721 Predicted improvement: 0.088188059 lambda = 1; f = 842.4028310 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.3362762 Norm of dx 0.014524 ---- Improvement on iteration 22 = 0.207751865 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.3362762069 Predicted improvement: 0.109910781 lambda = 1; f = 842.1818757 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.1566740 Norm of dx 0.015987 ---- Improvement on iteration 23 = 0.179602239 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.1566739678 Predicted improvement: 0.064949294 lambda = 1; f = 842.0516372 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.9991712 Norm of dx 0.0069909 ---- Improvement on iteration 24 = 0.157502784 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.9991711838 Predicted improvement: 0.058952027 lambda = 1; f = 841.9061116 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.8666497 Norm of dx 0.010565 ---- Improvement on iteration 25 = 0.132521484 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.8666496997 Predicted improvement: 0.064237223 lambda = 1; f = 841.7580011 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.6923732 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.6643852 Norm of dx 0.013225 ---- Improvement on iteration 26 = 0.202264477 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.6643852226 Predicted improvement: 0.057122387 lambda = 1; f = 841.5886517 Norm of dx 0.0090143 ---- Improvement on iteration 27 = 0.075733533 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.5886516897 Predicted improvement: 0.043710860 lambda = 1; f = 841.5225062 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.4986097 Norm of dx 0.007241 ---- Improvement on iteration 28 = 0.090042031 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.4986096587 Predicted improvement: 0.024055251 lambda = 1; f = 841.4612678 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.4465810 Norm of dx 0.011229 ---- Improvement on iteration 29 = 0.052028664 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.4465809944 Predicted improvement: 0.008931627 lambda = 1; f = 841.4312378 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.4214423 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.4147646 Norm of dx 0.0037658 ---- Improvement on iteration 30 = 0.031816435 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.4147645591 Predicted improvement: 0.020101500 lambda = 1; f = 841.3800205 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.3574424 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.3407405 Norm of dx 0.0042056 ---- Improvement on iteration 31 = 0.074024012 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.3407405474 Predicted improvement: 0.032366410 lambda = 1; f = 841.2873827 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2581283 Norm of dx 0.0084804 ---- Improvement on iteration 32 = 0.082612259 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2581282882 Predicted improvement: 0.044089537 lambda = 1; f = 841.1920095 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.1708092 Norm of dx 0.021273 ---- Improvement on iteration 33 = 0.087319055 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.1708092330 Predicted improvement: 0.030152750 lambda = 1; f = 841.1192715 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0870042 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.0680576 Norm of dx 0.0072932 ---- Improvement on iteration 34 = 0.102751676 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0680575572 Predicted improvement: 0.017100787 lambda = 1; f = 841.0429667 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0360165 Norm of dx 0.0058429 ---- Improvement on iteration 35 = 0.032041030 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0360165270 Predicted improvement: 0.008296768 lambda = 1; f = 841.0215971 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0120482 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.0042067 Norm of dx 0.0054096 ---- Improvement on iteration 36 = 0.031809827 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0042066999 Predicted improvement: 0.006821495 lambda = 1; f = 840.9944022 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.9921776 Norm of dx 0.0027107 ---- Improvement on iteration 37 = 0.012029087 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.9921776127 Predicted improvement: 0.001832528 lambda = 1; f = 840.9891005 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.9872901 Norm of dx 0.0010835 ---- Improvement on iteration 38 = 0.004887536 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.9872900771 Predicted improvement: 0.003903736 lambda = 1; f = 840.9807411 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.9769034 Norm of dx 0.0026112 ---- Improvement on iteration 39 = 0.010386685 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.9769033923 Predicted improvement: 0.008100759 lambda = 1; f = 840.9634040 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.9556948 Norm of dx 0.0072011 ---- Improvement on iteration 40 = 0.021208544 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.9556948485 Predicted improvement: 0.013822180 lambda = 1; f = 840.9340126 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.9245991 Norm of dx 0.012823 ---- Improvement on iteration 41 = 0.031095794 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.9245990542 Predicted improvement: 0.009613088 lambda = 1; f = 840.9100150 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.9047118 Norm of dx 0.0051893 ---- Improvement on iteration 42 = 0.019887299 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.9047117554 Predicted improvement: 0.002969464 lambda = 1; f = 840.8998921 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.8974135 Norm of dx 0.0016484 ---- Improvement on iteration 43 = 0.007298250 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.8974135054 Predicted improvement: 0.003477534 lambda = 1; f = 840.8914895 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.8878200 lambda = 3.7372; f = 840.8858081 Norm of dx 0.0031324 ---- Improvement on iteration 44 = 0.011605434 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.8858080709 Predicted improvement: 0.006003879 lambda = 1; f = 840.8749712 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.8669739 lambda = 3.7372; f = 840.8573238 Norm of dx 0.0048642 ---- Improvement on iteration 45 = 0.028484229 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.8573238417 Predicted improvement: 0.012352330 lambda = 1; f = 840.8372935 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.8270631 Norm of dx 0.015053 ---- Improvement on iteration 46 = 0.030260746 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.8270630954 Predicted improvement: 0.015184180 lambda = 1; f = 840.8028212 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.7911806 Norm of dx 0.015834 ---- Improvement on iteration 47 = 0.035882505 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.7911805903 Predicted improvement: 0.011701670 lambda = 1; f = 840.7731988 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.7661921 Norm of dx 0.0086708 ---- Improvement on iteration 48 = 0.024988528 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.7661920619 Predicted improvement: 0.007247939 lambda = 1; f = 840.7541527 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.7473244 Norm of dx 0.004359 ---- Improvement on iteration 49 = 0.018867620 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.7473244418 Predicted improvement: 0.006626642 lambda = 1; f = 840.7382493 Norm of dx 0.0097525 ---- Improvement on iteration 50 = 0.009075169 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.7382492727 Predicted improvement: 0.004018605 lambda = 1; f = 840.7320773 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.7296741 Norm of dx 0.0084749 ---- Improvement on iteration 51 = 0.008575184 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.7296740886 Predicted improvement: 0.003625074 lambda = 1; f = 840.7231215 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.7182669 lambda = 3.7372; f = 840.7123421 Norm of dx 0.003642 ---- Improvement on iteration 52 = 0.017332002 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.7123420862 Predicted improvement: 0.006316089 lambda = 1; f = 840.7023979 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.6979943 Norm of dx 0.0044113 ---- Improvement on iteration 53 = 0.014347817 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.6979942695 Predicted improvement: 0.007444838 lambda = 1; f = 840.6843178 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.6737399 lambda = 3.7372; f = 840.6592512 Norm of dx 0.0067258 ---- Improvement on iteration 54 = 0.038743067 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.6592512029 Predicted improvement: 0.023728084 lambda = 1; f = 840.6271665 Norm of dx 0.032548 ---- Improvement on iteration 55 = 0.032084736 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.6271664673 Predicted improvement: 0.008574770 lambda = 1; f = 840.6164749 Norm of dx 0.019706 ---- Improvement on iteration 56 = 0.010691527 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.6164749404 Predicted improvement: 0.002490957 lambda = 1; f = 840.6124870 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.6105515 Norm of dx 0.0062536 ---- Improvement on iteration 57 = 0.005923479 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.6105514611 Predicted improvement: 0.003097815 lambda = 1; f = 840.6051651 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.6015980 lambda = 3.7372; f = 840.5986929 Norm of dx 0.0032342 ---- Improvement on iteration 58 = 0.011858582 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.5986928790 Predicted improvement: 0.004759772 lambda = 1; f = 840.5901746 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.5840383 lambda = 3.7372; f = 840.5771724 Norm of dx 0.0027214 ---- Improvement on iteration 59 = 0.021520466 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.5771724127 Predicted improvement: 0.012186940 lambda = 1; f = 840.5541007 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.5349299 lambda = 3.7372; f = 840.5043839 lambda = 7.2247; f = 840.4700435 Norm of dx 0.0133 ---- Improvement on iteration 60 = 0.107128960 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.4700434523 Predicted improvement: 0.087601310 lambda = 1; f = 840.3166261 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.2138728 lambda = 3.7372; f = 840.1331913 Norm of dx 0.11283 ---- Improvement on iteration 61 = 0.336852167 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.1331912855 Predicted improvement: 0.067359733 lambda = 1; f = 840.0505781 Norm of dx 0.010698 ---- Improvement on iteration 62 = 0.082613202 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.0505780834 Predicted improvement: 0.008262302 lambda = 1; f = 840.0394653 Norm of dx 0.011764 ---- Improvement on iteration 63 = 0.011112827 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.0394652567 Predicted improvement: 0.005632962 lambda = 1; f = 840.0298733 lambda = 1.9332; f = 840.0239458 lambda = 3.7372; f = 840.0207845 Norm of dx 0.0104 ---- Improvement on iteration 64 = 0.018680752 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 840.0207845045 Predicted improvement: 0.012469833 lambda = 1; f = 839.9971795 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.9775398 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.9460207 lambda = 7.2247; f = 839.9087902 Norm of dx 0.0096932 ---- Improvement on iteration 65 = 0.111994315 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.9087901898 Predicted improvement: 0.030909501 lambda = 1; f = 839.8713422 Norm of dx 0.062265 ---- Improvement on iteration 66 = 0.037448006 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8713421838 Predicted improvement: 0.003678903 lambda = 1; f = 839.8669277 Norm of dx 0.011901 ---- Improvement on iteration 67 = 0.004414529 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8669276549 Predicted improvement: 0.000914266 lambda = 1; f = 839.8654256 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8646078 Norm of dx 0.0028928 ---- Improvement on iteration 68 = 0.002319883 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8646077721 Predicted improvement: 0.001760216 lambda = 1; f = 839.8615178 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8593985 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.8573300 Norm of dx 0.0027512 ---- Improvement on iteration 69 = 0.007277753 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8573300186 Predicted improvement: 0.004376977 lambda = 1; f = 839.8494667 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8437359 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.8370593 Norm of dx 0.0071603 ---- Improvement on iteration 70 = 0.020270738 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8370592804 Predicted improvement: 0.007662651 lambda = 1; f = 839.8260923 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8237673 Norm of dx 0.0082704 ---- Improvement on iteration 71 = 0.013292024 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8237672564 Predicted improvement: 0.002395064 lambda = 1; f = 839.8206720 Norm of dx 0.0078128 ---- Improvement on iteration 72 = 0.003095283 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8206719729 Predicted improvement: 0.000545921 lambda = 1; f = 839.8200148 Norm of dx 0.001293 ---- Improvement on iteration 73 = 0.000657183 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8200147900 Predicted improvement: 0.000187274 lambda = 1; f = 839.8196846 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8194567 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.8192351 Norm of dx 0.0024631 ---- Improvement on iteration 74 = 0.000779728 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8192350618 Predicted improvement: 0.000570494 lambda = 1; f = 839.8181639 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8172902 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.8159462 lambda = 7.2247; f = 839.8146394 Norm of dx 0.0010685 ---- Improvement on iteration 75 = 0.004595634 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8146394278 Predicted improvement: 0.001522230 lambda = 1; f = 839.8125259 Norm of dx 0.0026963 ---- Improvement on iteration 76 = 0.002113479 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8125259489 Predicted improvement: 0.000606863 lambda = 1; f = 839.8118495 Norm of dx 0.0066754 ---- Improvement on iteration 77 = 0.000676448 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8118495011 Predicted improvement: 0.000045006 lambda = 1; f = 839.8117814 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8117574 Norm of dx 0.0008415 ---- Improvement on iteration 78 = 0.000092106 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8117573948 Predicted improvement: 0.000035048 lambda = 1; f = 839.8116894 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8116298 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.8115250 lambda = 7.2247; f = 839.8113616 lambda = 13.967; f = 839.8111916 Norm of dx 0.00019711 ---- Improvement on iteration 79 = 0.000565753 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8111916423 Predicted improvement: 0.000452815 lambda = 1; f = 839.8103462 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8096660 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.8086486 lambda = 7.2247; f = 839.8077959 Norm of dx 0.0023724 ---- Improvement on iteration 80 = 0.003395742 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8077958999 Predicted improvement: 0.000756492 lambda = 1; f = 839.8068287 Norm of dx 0.0031362 ---- Improvement on iteration 81 = 0.000967235 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8068286649 Predicted improvement: 0.000129052 lambda = 1; f = 839.8066547 Norm of dx 0.0013509 ---- Improvement on iteration 82 = 0.000173993 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8066546714 Predicted improvement: 0.000093583 lambda = 1; f = 839.8064918 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8063838 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.8062953 Norm of dx 0.00096626 ---- Improvement on iteration 83 = 0.000359392 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.8062952799 Predicted improvement: 0.000264859 lambda = 1; f = 839.8057682 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.8052810 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.8043520 lambda = 7.2247; f = 839.8026043 lambda = 13.967; f = 839.7994056 lambda = 27; f = 839.7938955 lambda = 52.196; f = 839.7857693 lambda = 100.9; f = 839.7795611 Norm of dx 0.0012419 ---- Improvement on iteration 84 = 0.026734138 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.7795611415 Predicted improvement: 0.003555275 lambda = 1; f = 839.7754134 Norm of dx 0.010949 ---- Improvement on iteration 85 = 0.004147760 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.7754133817 Predicted improvement: 0.000315160 lambda = 1; f = 839.7749373 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.7747710 Norm of dx 0.0032345 ---- Improvement on iteration 86 = 0.000642393 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.7747709892 Predicted improvement: 0.000319068 lambda = 1; f = 839.7741406 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.7735662 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.7724940 lambda = 7.2247; f = 839.7705636 lambda = 13.967; f = 839.7673634 lambda = 27; f = 839.7631597 Norm of dx 0.001805 ---- Improvement on iteration 87 = 0.011611253 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.7631597366 Predicted improvement: 0.010420192 lambda = 1; f = 839.7464603 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.7383726 Norm of dx 0.06158 ---- Improvement on iteration 88 = 0.024787143 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.7383725931 Predicted improvement: 0.006564947 lambda = 1; f = 839.7299485 Norm of dx 0.039993 ---- Improvement on iteration 89 = 0.008424070 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.7299485232 Predicted improvement: 0.001328860 lambda = 1; f = 839.7282458 Norm of dx 0.0077347 ---- Improvement on iteration 90 = 0.001702681 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.7282458417 Predicted improvement: 0.000615501 lambda = 1; f = 839.7271724 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.7264551 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.7258479 Norm of dx 0.0035478 ---- Improvement on iteration 91 = 0.002397910 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.7258479316 Predicted improvement: 0.001684860 lambda = 1; f = 839.7225775 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.7197049 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.7146441 lambda = 7.2247; f = 839.7067097 lambda = 13.967; f = 839.6983539 Norm of dx 0.0073365 ---- Improvement on iteration 92 = 0.027493996 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6983539356 Predicted improvement: 0.002170736 lambda = 1; f = 839.6961265 Norm of dx 0.025241 ---- Improvement on iteration 93 = 0.002227417 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6961265187 Predicted improvement: 0.000012713 lambda = 1; f = 839.6961077 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.6961020 Norm of dx 0.00059962 ---- Improvement on iteration 94 = 0.000024554 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6961019648 Predicted improvement: 0.000011084 lambda = 1; f = 839.6960802 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.6960605 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.6960244 lambda = 7.2247; f = 839.6959614 lambda = 13.967; f = 839.6958654 lambda = 27; f = 839.6957763 Norm of dx 0.00022538 ---- Improvement on iteration 95 = 0.000325641 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6957763242 Predicted improvement: 0.000160644 lambda = 1; f = 839.6955407 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.6954751 Norm of dx 0.0021064 ---- Improvement on iteration 96 = 0.000301210 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6954751141 Predicted improvement: 0.000010013 lambda = 1; f = 839.6954643 Norm of dx 0.00062663 ---- Improvement on iteration 97 = 0.000010846 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6954642684 Predicted improvement: 0.000000322 lambda = 1; f = 839.6954638 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.6954635 Norm of dx 0.00016685 ---- Improvement on iteration 98 = 0.000000749 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6954635196 Predicted improvement: 0.000000482 lambda = 1; f = 839.6954626 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.6954618 lambda = 3.7372; f = 839.6954606 lambda = 7.2247; f = 839.6954590 Norm of dx 5.005e-05 ---- Improvement on iteration 99 = 0.000004532 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6954589877 Predicted improvement: 0.000003794 lambda = 1; f = 839.6954527 lambda = 1.9332; f = 839.6954494 Norm of dx 0.00016451 ---- Improvement on iteration 100 = 0.000009636 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6954493512 Predicted improvement: 0.000002794 lambda = 1; f = 839.6954461 Norm of dx 0.0004617 ---- Improvement on iteration 101 = 0.000003226 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6954461249 Predicted improvement: 0.000000137 lambda = 1; f = 839.6954460 Norm of dx 0.00011465 ---- Improvement on iteration 102 = 0.000000144 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 839.6954459812 Predicted improvement: 0.000000001 lambda = 1; f = 839.6954460 Norm of dx 7.7777e-06 ---- Improvement on iteration 103 = 0.000000001 improvement < crit termination Objective function at mode: 839.695446 MODE CHECK Fval obtained by the minimization routine: 839.695446 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev crhoa 0.500 0.9591 0.0101 beta 0.2000 crhob 0.500 0.1836 0.0843 beta 0.2000 crhog 0.500 0.9760 0.0082 beta 0.2000 crhoqs 0.500 0.7099 0.0590 beta 0.2000 crhoms 0.500 0.1268 0.0652 beta 0.2000 crhopinf 0.500 0.9054 0.0458 beta 0.2000 crhow 0.500 0.9723 0.0124 beta 0.2000 cmap 0.500 0.7416 0.0873 beta 0.2000 cmaw 0.500 0.8875 0.0522 beta 0.2000 csadjcost 4.000 5.4680 1.0303 norm 1.5000 csigma 1.500 1.3982 0.1287 norm 0.3750 chabb 0.700 0.7102 0.0414 beta 0.1000 cprobw 0.500 0.7327 0.0725 beta 0.1000 csigl 2.000 1.8618 0.6146 norm 0.7500 cprobp 0.500 0.6542 0.0584 beta 0.1000 cindw 0.500 0.5969 0.1328 beta 0.1500 cindp 0.500 0.2192 0.0895 beta 0.1500 czcap 0.500 0.5494 0.1159 beta 0.1500 cfc 1.250 1.6117 0.0775 norm 0.1250 crpi 1.500 2.0063 0.1778 norm 0.2500 crr 0.750 0.8128 0.0245 beta 0.1000 cry 0.125 0.0834 0.0217 norm 0.0500 crdy 0.125 0.2223 0.0273 norm 0.0500 constepinf 0.625 0.8074 0.0917 gamm 0.1000 constebeta 0.250 0.1416 0.0548 gamm 0.1000 ctrend 0.400 0.4331 0.0141 norm 0.1000 cgy 0.500 0.5262 0.0886 norm 0.2500 calfa 0.300 0.1913 0.0174 norm 0.0500 standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev ea 0.100 0.4524 0.0275 invg 2.0000 eb 0.100 0.2421 0.0233 invg 2.0000 eg 0.100 0.5198 0.0298 invg 2.0000 eqs 0.100 0.4497 0.0483 invg 2.0000 em 0.100 0.2397 0.0147 invg 2.0000 epinf 0.100 0.1403 0.0168 invg 2.0000 ew 0.100 0.2453 0.0221 invg 2.0000 Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -921.844273. Total computing time : 0h04m47s Note: warning(s) encountered in MATLAB/Octave code