>> dynare nonlinearomega.mod MATLAB has lost its connection to the license server. MATLAB will make 9 more reconnection attempt(s) and then exit. Any unsaved changes will be lost. Configuring Dynare ... [mex] Generalized QZ. [mex] Sylvester equation solution. [mex] Kronecker products. [mex] Sparse kronecker products. [mex] Local state space iteration (second order). [mex] Bytecode evaluation. [mex] k-order perturbation solver. [mex] k-order solution simulation. [mex] Quasi Monte-Carlo sequence (Sobol). [mex] Markov Switching SBVAR. Using 64-bit preprocessor Starting Dynare (version 4.5-unstable). Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 244 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives: - order 1 Computing dynamic model derivatives: - order 1 - order 2 Processing outputs ... done Preprocessing completed. Residuals of the static equations: Equation number 1 : 0 Equation number 2 : 0 Equation number 3 : 0 Equation number 4 : 0 Equation number 5 : 0 Equation number 6 : 0 Equation number 7 : 0 Equation number 8 : 0 Equation number 9 : 0 Equation number 10 : 0 Equation number 11 : 0 Equation number 12 : 0 Equation number 13 : 0 Equation number 14 : 0 Equation number 15 : 0 Equation number 16 : 0 Equation number 17 : 0 Equation number 18 : 0 Equation number 19 : 0 Equation number 20 : 0 Equation number 21 : 0 Equation number 22 : 0 Equation number 23 : 0 Equation number 24 : 0 Equation number 25 : 0 Equation number 26 : 0 Equation number 27 : 0 Equation number 28 : 0 Equation number 29 : 0 Equation number 30 : 0 Equation number 31 : 0 Equation number 32 : 0 Equation number 33 : 0 Equation number 34 : 0 Equation number 35 : 0 Equation number 36 : 0 Equation number 37 : 0 Equation number 38 : 0 Equation number 39 : 0 Equation number 40 : 0 Equation number 41 : 0 Equation number 42 : 0 Equation number 43 : 0 Equation number 44 : 0 Equation number 45 : 0 Equation number 46 : 0 Equation number 47 : 0 Equation number 48 : 0 Equation number 49 : 0 Equation number 50 : 0 Equation number 51 : 0 Equation number 52 : 0 Equation number 53 : 0 Equation number 54 : 0 Equation number 55 : 0 Equation number 56 : 0 Equation number 57 : 0 Equation number 58 : 0 Equation number 59 : 0 Equation number 60 : 0 Equation number 61 : 0 Equation number 62 : 0 Equation number 63 : 0 Equation number 64 : 0 Equation number 65 : 0 Equation number 66 : 0 Equation number 67 : 0 Equation number 68 : 0 Equation number 69 : 0 Equation number 70 : 0 Equation number 71 : 0 Equation number 72 : 0 Equation number 73 : 0 Equation number 74 : 0 Equation number 75 : 0 Equation number 76 : 0 Equation number 77 : 0 Equation number 78 : 0 Equation number 79 : 0 Equation number 80 : 0 Equation number 81 : 0 Equation number 82 : 0 Equation number 83 : 0 Equation number 84 : 0 Equation number 85 : 0 Equation number 86 : 0 Equation number 87 : 0 Equation number 88 : 0 Equation number 89 : 0 Equation number 90 : 0 Equation number 91 : 0 Equation number 92 : 0 Equation number 93 : 0 Equation number 94 : 0 Equation number 95 : -1.2746e-06 Equation number 96 : 0 Equation number 97 : 0 Equation number 98 : 0 Equation number 99 : 0 Equation number 100 : 0 Equation number 101 : 0 Equation number 102 : 0 Equation number 103 : 0 Equation number 104 : 0 Equation number 105 : 0 Equation number 106 : 0 Equation number 107 : 0 Equation number 108 : 0 Equation number 109 : 0 Equation number 110 : 0 Equation number 111 : 0 Equation number 112 : 0 Equation number 113 : 0 Equation number 114 : 0 Equation number 115 : 0 Equation number 116 : 0 Equation number 117 : 0 Equation number 118 : 0 Equation number 119 : 0 Equation number 120 : 0 Equation number 121 : 0 Equation number 122 : 0 Equation number 123 : 0 Equation number 124 : 0 Equation number 125 : 0 Equation number 126 : 0 Equation number 127 : 0 Equation number 128 : 0 Equation number 129 : 0 Equation number 130 : 0 Equation number 131 : 0 Equation number 132 : 0 Equation number 133 : 0 Equation number 134 : 0 Equation number 135 : 0 Equation number 136 : 0 Equation number 137 : 0 Equation number 138 : 0 Equation number 139 : 0 Equation number 140 : 0 Equation number 141 : 0 Equation number 142 : 0 Equation number 143 : 0 Equation number 144 : 0 Equation number 145 : 0 Equation number 146 : 0 Equation number 147 : 0 Equation number 148 : 0 Equation number 149 : 0 Equation number 150 : 0 Equation number 151 : 0 Equation number 152 : 0 Equation number 153 : 0 Equation number 154 : 0 Equation number 155 : 0 Equation number 156 : 0 Equation number 157 : 0 Equation number 158 : 0 Equation number 159 : 0 Equation number 160 : 0 Equation number 161 : 0 Equation number 162 : 0 Equation number 163 : 0 Equation number 164 : 0 Equation number 165 : 0 Equation number 166 : 0 Equation number 167 : 0 Equation number 168 : 0 Equation number 169 : 0 Equation number 170 : 0 Equation number 171 : 0 Equation number 172 : 0 Equation number 173 : 0 Equation number 174 : 0 Equation number 175 : 0 Equation number 176 : 0 Equation number 177 : -1.2746e-06 Equation number 178 : 0 Equation number 179 : 0 Equation number 180 : 0 Equation number 181 : 0 Equation number 182 : 0 Equation number 183 : 0 Equation number 184 : 0 Equation number 185 : 0 Equation number 186 : 0 Equation number 187 : 0 Equation number 188 : 0 Equation number 189 : 0 Equation number 190 : 0 Equation number 191 : 0 Equation number 192 : 0 Equation number 193 : 0 Equation number 194 : 0 Equation number 195 : 0 Equation number 196 : 0 Equation number 197 : 0 Equation number 198 : 0 Equation number 199 : 0 Equation number 200 : 0 Equation number 201 : 0 Equation number 202 : 0 Equation number 203 : 0 Equation number 204 : 0 Equation number 205 : 0 Equation number 206 : 0 Equation number 207 : 0 Equation number 208 : 0 Equation number 209 : 0 Equation number 210 : 0 Equation number 211 : 0 Equation number 212 : 0 Equation number 213 : 0 Equation number 214 : 0 Equation number 215 : 0 Equation number 216 : 0 Equation number 217 : 0 Equation number 218 : 0 Equation number 219 : 0 Equation number 220 : 0 Equation number 221 : 0 Equation number 222 : 0 Equation number 223 : 0 Equation number 224 : 0 Equation number 225 : 0 Equation number 226 : 0 Equation number 227 : 0 Equation number 228 : 0 Equation number 229 : 0 Equation number 230 : 0 Equation number 231 : 0 Equation number 232 : 0 Equation number 233 : 0 Equation number 234 : 0 Equation number 235 : 0 Equation number 236 : 0 Equation number 237 : 0 Equation number 238 : 0 Equation number 239 : 0 Equation number 240 : 0 Equation number 241 : 0 Equation number 242 : 0 Equation number 243 : 0 Equation number 244 : 0 STEADY-STATE RESULTS: c1welf -222.597 c2welf -347.897 c1ygap 1 c1lambdaq 2.99619 c1q 0 c1i -2.98909 c1k 0.49693 c1c -1.95366 c1cne -1.97695 c1cd -2.13484 c1mc -3.90068 c1oc -5.72522 c1id -3.14699 c1rpipd 0 c1mi -4.91283 c1v -1.49717 c1y -1.47041 c1rk -3.10109 c1l -1.09871 c1o -4.67439 c1rrs 0.02 c1m -3.59067 c1tbal 1.13217e-17 c1gtbal 0.02842 c1g -3.36753 c1shockgy 0 c1op -4.67356 c1os -13.0059 c1ow -4.67346 c1rpopd 0 c1oi -13.9184 c1zc 0 c1zclag 0 c1zi 0 c1yo 0 c1lagyo 0 c1dyo 0 c1muoc 0 c1lagmuoc 0 c1muc 0 c1omegacm 0 c1lagomegacm 0 c1omegaim 0 c2lambdaq 2.95357 c2q 0 c2i -2.86824 c2k 0.617788 c2c -1.9144 c2cne -1.96441 c2cd -2.05495 c2mc -4.41132 c2oc -4.93478 c2id -2.95878 c2rpipd 0 c2mi -5.31514 c2v -1.51248 c2y -1.45354 c2rk -3.2264 c2l -1.10866 c2o -3.88396 c2rrs 0.0147 c2m -4.07127 c2tbal 1.78257e-08 c2gtbal -0.0139723 c2g -3.21963 c2shockgy 0 c2op -3.88313 c2os -12.2028 c2ow -3.88303 c2rpopd 0 c2oi -13.1152 c2zc 0 c2zclag 0 c2zi 0 c2yo 0 c2lagyo 0 c2dyo 0 c2muoc 0 c2lagmuoc 0 c2muc 0 c2omegacm 0 c2lagomegacm 0 c2omegaim 0 c1rer 0 c2rpwopd -0.000932228 c1rpwopd -0.000933503 c1b 0 c1rpmcpd 0 c2rpmcpd 0 c1z 0 c2z 0 c1zw 0 c1zwlag 0 c1muo 0 c2muo 0 c1muow 0 c1muowlag 0 c1rpmipd 0 c1x -3.37812 c2rpmipd 0 c2x -4.28382 c2w -0.807627 c1w -0.796915 c2oy -4.3142 c1oy -5.10464 c2thetapvar 0 c1thetapvar 0 c2wdes -0.807627 c1wdes -0.796915 c2thetawvar 0 c1thetawvar 0 c1lambdaq_pot 2.99619 c1q_pot 0 c1i_pot -2.98909 c1k_pot 0.49693 c1c_pot -1.95366 c1cne_pot -1.97695 c1cd_pot -2.13484 c1mc_pot -3.90068 c1oc_pot -5.72522 c1id_pot -3.14699 c1rpipd_pot 0 c1mi_pot -4.91283 c1v_pot -1.49717 c1y_pot -1.47041 c1rk_pot -3.10109 c1l_pot -1.09871 c1o_pot -4.67439 c1rrs_pot 0.02 c1m_pot -3.59067 c1tbal_pot 1.13217e-17 c1g_pot -3.36753 c1op_pot -4.67356 c1os_pot -13.0059 c1ow_pot -4.67346 c1rpopd_pot 0 c1oi_pot -13.9184 c2lambdaq_pot 2.95357 c2q_pot 0 c2i_pot -2.86824 c2k_pot 0.617788 c2c_pot -1.9144 c2cne_pot -1.96441 c2cd_pot -2.05495 c2mc_pot -4.41132 c2oc_pot -4.93478 c2id_pot -2.95878 c2rpipd_pot 0 c2mi_pot -5.31514 c2v_pot -1.51248 c2y_pot -1.45354 c2rk_pot -3.2264 c2l_pot -1.10866 c2o_pot -3.88396 c2rrs_pot 0.0147 c2m_pot -4.07127 c2tbal_pot 1.78257e-08 c2g_pot -3.21963 c2op_pot -3.88313 c2os_pot -12.2028 c2ow_pot -3.88303 c2rpopd_pot 0 c2oi_pot -13.1152 c1rer_pot 0 c2rpwopd_pot -0.000932228 c1rpwopd_pot -0.000933503 c1b_pot 0 c1rpmcpd_pot 0 c2rpmcpd_pot 0 c1rpmipd_pot 0 c1x_pot -3.37812 c2rpmipd_pot 0 c2x_pot -4.28382 c2w_pot -0.807627 c1w_pot -0.796915 c2oy_pot -4.3142 c1oy_pot -5.10464 c2rmcpd_pot 0 c1rmcpd_pot 0 c2wdes_pot -0.807627 c1wdes_pot -0.796915 c2rpcpd_pot 0 c1rpcpd_pot 0 c2rmcpd 0 c1rmcpd 0 c2rpcpd 0 c1rpcpd 0 c2dpd 0 c1dpd 0 c2dcore 0.0121 c1dcore 0.0113312 c1dhead 0.0113312 c1dpwo 0.0145178 c2rpnepd 0 c1rpnepd 0 c1rs 0.02 c2rs 0.0147 c1pitar 0 c2pitar 0 c1hw 3.3997 c1gw 3.3997 c1wstar -0.796915 c1omegabar 1.01726 c1omega 1.01726 c2hw 3.42795 c2gw 3.42795 c2wstar -0.807627 c2omegabar 1.01804 c2omega 1.01804 c1hp 2.5502 c1gp 2.5502 c1pstar 0 c1pidbar 1.0114 c1pid 1.0114 c1deltad 0 c2hp 2.56837 c2gp 2.56837 c2pstar 0 c2pidbar 1.01217 c2pid 1.01217 c2deltad 0 c1yd -1.47041 c2yd -1.45354 c1yd_pot -1.47041 c2yd_pot -1.45354 c1logdeltagdp 0 c2logdeltagdp 0 c1rngdpy 0.9858 c2rngdpy 1.04479 deltalog_gdp_us_obs 0.00584617 deltalog_gdp_for_obs 0.00566296 dpcexfe_log_us_obs 0.0113312 rer_log_us_obs 0 dcomp_log_us_obs 0.0171145 fedfunds_us_obs 0 fixi_share_us_obs 0.222155 pce_share_us_obs 0.62566 exp_share_us_obs 0.150558 imp_share_us_obs 0.121729 oilimp_share_us_obs -4.36844 oilprod_us_deltalog_obs 0.0026 oilprod_for_deltalog_obs 0.0026 delta_logoilprice_us_obs 0.00323776 hours_dlog_us_obs 0 EIGENVALUES: Modulus Real Imaginary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.012e-17 5.012e-17 0 1.987e-16 1.987e-16 0 2.956e-16 -2.956e-16 0 5.656e-16 -5.656e-16 0 1.076e-14 -1.076e-14 0 2.755e-14 -2.755e-14 0 6.65e-12 -6.65e-12 0 4.383e-11 -4.383e-11 0 4.385e-11 4.385e-11 0 3.204e-07 3.204e-07 0 3.204e-07 3.204e-07 0 4.525e-07 4.525e-07 0 4.525e-07 4.525e-07 0 0.0001003 0.0001003 0 0.0001003 0.0001003 0 0.0001015 0.0001015 0 0.000104 0.000104 0 0.0001045 0.0001045 0 0.001001 0.001001 0 0.001318 0.001318 0 0.003705 0.003705 0 0.01001 0.01001 0 0.03781 0.03781 0 0.1236 0.1236 0 0.2162 0.2162 0 0.2163 0.2163 0 0.4026 0.4026 0 0.4026 0.4026 0 0.5316 0.5316 0 0.552 0.552 0 0.5968 0.5968 0 0.6681 0.6386 0.1964 0.6681 0.6386 -0.1964 0.6696 0.6314 0.223 0.6696 0.6314 -0.223 0.7401 0.7401 0 0.7401 0.7401 0 0.799 0.799 0 0.81 0.81 0 0.814 0.814 0 0.8149 0.8149 0 0.8758 0.8747 0.04389 0.8758 0.8747 -0.04389 0.8772 0.8753 0.05773 0.8772 0.8753 -0.05773 0.9 0.9 0 0.9059 0.9059 0 0.9059 0.9059 0 0.9188 0.9188 0 0.9192 0.9192 0 0.9314 0.9314 0 0.9622 0.9622 0 0.9768 0.9768 0 0.9768 0.9768 0 0.9855 0.9855 0 0.9856 0.9856 0 0.9981 0.9981 0 0.9981 0.9981 0 0.9981 0.9981 0 0.9981 0.9981 0 0.999 0.999 0 0.999 0.999 0 0.999 0.999 0 0.999 0.999 0 0.9999 0.9999 0 0.9999 0.9999 0 0.9999 0.9999 0 1.009 1.009 0 1.011 1.011 0 1.011 1.011 0 1.014 1.014 0 1.049 1.049 0 1.059 1.059 0 1.067 1.067 0 1.134 1.134 0 1.139 1.139 0 1.141 1.141 0 1.143 1.139 0.09518 1.143 1.139 -0.09518 1.151 1.151 0 1.192 1.192 0 1.234 1.205 0.2647 1.234 1.205 -0.2647 1.245 1.245 0 1.246 1.246 0 1.261 1.261 0 1.34 1.301 0.3174 1.34 1.301 -0.3174 1.528 1.528 0 802.6 802.6 0 827.5 827.5 0 2.889e+16 2.889e+16 0 3.485e+16 -3.485e+16 0 3.906e+16 3.906e+16 0 4.88e+16 4.88e+16 0 6.884e+16 -6.884e+16 0 7.946e+16 -7.946e+16 0 9.581e+16 -9.581e+16 0 9.619e+16 9.619e+16 0 1.115e+17 -1.115e+17 0 1.196e+17 1.196e+17 0 1.794e+17 -1.794e+17 0 3.136e+17 -3.136e+17 0 5.947e+17 5.947e+17 0 6.452e+17 6.452e+17 0 1.133e+18 -1.133e+18 0 2.493e+18 2.493e+18 0 2.887e+18 2.887e+18 0 3.301e+18 3.301e+18 0 2.014e+19 2.014e+19 0 2.063e+19 -2.063e+19 0 2.71e+19 -2.71e+19 0 1.114e+20 1.114e+20 0 1.203e+25 -1.203e+25 0 7.211e+25 7.211e+25 0 1.731e+27 -1.731e+27 0 1.368e+31 1.368e+31 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 Inf Inf 0 There are 62 eigenvalue(s) larger than 1 in modulus for 62 forward-looking variable(s) The rank condition is verified. Warning: Range cannot be used in 'basic' mode. The entire sheet will be loaded. > In xlsread at 199 In load_xls_file_data at 77 In dseries.dseries at 131 In makedataset at 103 In dynare_estimation_init at 531 In dynare_estimation_1 at 94 In dynare_estimation at 92 In nonlinearomega at 2190 In dynare at 223 Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -490621.0525 n=86: (8,17)-CMA-ES(w=[33 22 16... 3 0.93]%, ]%, mu_eff=4.8) on function dsge_likelihood Iterat, #Fevals: Function Value (median,worst) |Axis Ratio|idx:Min SD idx:Max SD 1 , 18 : 4.9097785928124e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 1.00e+00 | 7:9.6e-05 68:9.6e-05 2 , 35 : 4.9099990926951e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 1.02e+00 | 61:9.3e-05 68:9.3e-05 10 , 171 : 4.8665467028249e+05 +(7e+02,1e+08) | 1.06e+00 | 25:8.5e-05 41:8.6e-05 20 , 341 : 4.8132924036858e+05 +(4e+03,1e+08) | 1.16e+00 | 71:9.3e-05 41:9.6e-05 30 , 511 : 4.7867014517347e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 1.26e+00 | 25:1.0e-04 41:1.1e-04 40 , 681 : 4.7296969827880e+05 +(3e+03,1e+08) | 1.38e+00 | 71:1.2e-04 41:1.3e-04 50 , 851 : 4.6713774110333e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 1.50e+00 | 71:1.4e-04 41:1.7e-04 60 , 1021 : 4.5578817019870e+05 +(3e+03,1e+08) | 1.65e+00 | 71:1.7e-04 41:2.2e-04 70 , 1191 : 4.4600481953470e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 1.81e+00 | 71:2.1e-04 41:3.1e-04 80 , 1361 : 4.4090643652373e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 1.93e+00 | 71:2.4e-04 41:3.6e-04 90 , 1531 : 4.3208123211745e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.03e+00 | 71:2.5e-04 41:3.9e-04 Iterat, #Fevals: Function Value (median,worst) |Axis Ratio|idx:Min SD idx:Max SD 100 , 1701 : 4.1843632193264e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.13e+00 | 71:2.7e-04 41:4.4e-04 110 , 1871 : 4.1061107723494e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.22e+00 | 71:2.7e-04 41:4.6e-04 120 , 2041 : 3.9677434246868e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.34e+00 | 71:2.9e-04 41:5.1e-04 130 , 2211 : 3.9259254294834e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.44e+00 | 71:2.9e-04 41:5.4e-04 140 , 2381 : 3.8815393257118e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.52e+00 | 71:2.9e-04 41:5.4e-04 150 , 2551 : 3.8319547854192e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.57e+00 | 71:2.8e-04 41:5.5e-04 160 , 2721 : 3.7538143525777e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.62e+00 | 71:2.9e-04 41:5.7e-04 170 , 2891 : 3.7432897440231e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.66e+00 | 71:2.7e-04 41:5.3e-04 180 , 3061 : 3.6556255404483e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.70e+00 | 71:2.7e-04 41:5.4e-04 190 , 3231 : 3.5923412677639e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.76e+00 | 71:2.6e-04 41:5.4e-04 Iterat, #Fevals: Function Value (median,worst) |Axis Ratio|idx:Min SD idx:Max SD 200 , 3401 : 3.5517617975613e+05 +(1e+08,1e+08) | 2.79e+00 | 71:2.6e-04 41:5.4e-04 #Fevals: f(returned x) | bestever.f | stopflag 3402: 3.55176179756e+05 | 3.54116427486e+05 | maxiter mean solution: +2.9e-02 +1.0e+00 +1.0e+00 +6.5e-01 +3.5e+00 +1.3e+00 -1.7e+00 -2.0e+00 +6.0e+01 +2.8e-03 -1.7e-04 +8.1e-01 +8.9e-01 +6.5e-01 +1.9e-01 -3.1e-03 +4.1e-01 +2.1e-02 +9.1e-01 +2.4e-02 +1.0e+00 +4.0e-02 +2.2e-01 +3.2e-04 +6.5e-03 +4.7e-03 +4.0e-03 +1.6e-02 -3.0e-04 +1.1e-03 +3.8e-03 +7.4e-01 +4.8e-01 +9.8e-01 +3.7e+00 +1.3e-01 +2.5e-03 +2.4e-02 -2.0e-03 +1.7e-02 +1.1e-01 +2.4e-03 +6.7e-03 +2.1e-02 +9.2e-01 +6.5e-01 +2.4e-02 +1.0e+00 +1.0e+00 +6.5e-01 +3.5e+00 +1.3e+00 -1.7e+00 -2.0e+00 +6.0e+01 +8.1e-01 +8.9e-01 +4.9e-01 +5.0e-01 +6.6e-01 +1.8e-01 +1.8e-03 +5.0e-01 +2.4e-02 +9.0e-01 +3.2e-02 +1.0e+00 +3.8e-02 +2.1e-01 +3.8e-04 +1.1e-02 +7.4e-01 +4.8e-01 +9.8e-01 +3.7e+00 +1.3e-04 +1.3e-03 +4.7e-02 -3.8e-03 +4.0e-02 +1.8e-02 -7.8e-05 +1.7e-02 +1.3e-01 +9.2e-01 +7.2e-01 std deviation: 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.9e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.9e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.6e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 3.3e-04 2.9e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.9e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.9e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 5.4e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.9e-04 2.9e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 3.1e-04 2.7e-04 2.6e-04 2.6e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.9e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.8e-04 2.8e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 2.7e-04 use plotcmaesdat.m for plotting the output at any time (option LogModulo must not be zero) Final value of minus the log posterior (or likelihood):354116.427486 hh = 1.0e-04 * Columns 1 through 7 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 85 through 86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 0 0 1.0000 MODE CHECK Fval obtained by the minimization routine (minus the posterior/likelihood)): 354116.427522 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev c1delta 0.025 0.0293 100.0000 norm 0.2000 c1grmuoss 1.003 1.0102 100.0000 norm 0.1500 c1grmuzss 1.006 1.0196 100.0000 norm 0.1500 c1vkappa 0.651 0.6496 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c1psii 3.515 3.5153 100.0000 gamm 1.0000 c1rhoc 1.321 1.3224 100.0000 norm 5.0000 c1rhoo -1.732 -1.7269 100.0000 norm 5.0000 c1rhov -2.000 -2.0007 100.0000 norm 5.0000 c1chi 59.540 59.5474 100.0000 norm 15.0000 c1iotap 0.000 0.0024 100.0000 norm 0.0025 c1iotaw 0.000 -0.0002 100.0000 norm 0.0032 c1xip 0.814 0.8120 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c1xiw 0.890 0.8932 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c1gamrs 0.655 0.6548 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c1gamdpc 0.191 0.1938 100.0000 norm 0.5000 c1gamgdpgap 0.000 -0.0031 100.0000 norm 0.1000 c1rhopitar 0.403 0.4071 100.0000 norm 0.1500 c1scalepitarerr 0.022 0.0212 100.0000 invg 0.2000 c1rhozi 0.906 0.9059 100.0000 norm 0.1000 c1scalezierr 0.026 0.0241 100.0000 invg 0.2000 c1rhogy 0.999 0.9991 100.0000 norm 0.3300 c1scaleshockgyerr 0.025 0.0404 100.0000 invg 0.0200 c1rhozc1 0.216 0.2211 100.0000 norm 0.1500 c1rhozc2 0.000 0.0005 100.0000 norm 0.0001 c1scalezcerr 0.007 0.0066 100.0000 invg 0.0001 c1rhozw1 0.010 0.0046 100.0000 norm 0.0500 c1rhozw2 0.001 0.0037 100.0000 norm 0.0300 c1scalezwerr 0.001 0.0159 100.0000 invg 0.0005 c1rhomuow1 0.001 -0.0005 100.0000 norm 0.0015 c1rhomuow2 0.001 0.0010 100.0000 norm 0.0015 c1scalemuowerr 0.001 0.0035 100.0000 invg 0.0005 c1rhothetapvar 0.740 0.7427 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c1scalethetapvarerr 0.477 0.4791 100.0000 invg 5.0000 c1rhothetawvar 0.977 0.9820 100.0000 norm 0.1500 c1scalethetawvarerr 3.699 3.6927 100.0000 invg 5.0000 c1rhoyo1 0.124 0.1280 100.0000 norm 0.1300 c1rhoyo2 0.000 0.0025 100.0000 norm 0.0005 c1scaleyoerr 0.025 0.0246 100.0000 invg 0.0010 c1rhomuoc1 0.000 -0.0019 100.0000 norm 0.0005 c1rhomuoc2 0.014 0.0174 100.0000 norm 0.0900 c1scalemuocerr 0.047 0.1077 100.0000 invg 0.0400 c1rhoomegacm1 0.000 0.0024 100.0000 norm 0.0090 c1rhoomegacm2 0.002 0.0068 100.0000 norm 0.0400 c1scaleomegacmerr 0.027 0.0203 100.0000 invg 0.0100 c1rhomuc 0.919 0.9169 100.0000 beta 0.0150 c1scalemucerr 0.648 0.6479 100.0000 invg 0.0500 c2delta 0.025 0.0243 100.0000 norm 0.0200 c2grmuoss 1.003 0.9973 100.0000 norm 0.1500 c2grmuzss 1.006 1.0049 100.0000 norm 0.1500 c2vkappa 0.651 0.6498 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c2psii 3.515 3.5138 100.0000 gamm 1.0000 c2rhoc 1.321 1.3183 100.0000 norm 5.0000 c2rhoo -1.732 -1.7357 100.0000 norm 5.0000 c2rhov -2.000 -2.0030 100.0000 norm 5.0000 c2chi 59.540 59.5426 100.0000 norm 15.0000 c2xip 0.814 0.8083 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c2xiw 0.890 0.8900 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c2iotap 0.500 0.4932 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c2iotaw 0.500 0.5017 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c2gamrs 0.655 0.6557 100.0000 beta 0.1500 c2gamdpc 0.191 0.1820 100.0000 norm 0.5000 c2gamgdpgap 0.000 0.0019 100.0000 norm 0.1000 c2rhopitar 0.500 0.5030 100.0000 norm 0.1500 c2scalepitarerr 0.022 0.0239 100.0000 invg 0.0200 c2rhozi 0.900 0.9036 100.0000 norm 0.1000 c2scalezierr 0.026 0.0323 100.0000 invg 0.0200 c2rhogy 0.999 0.9989 100.0000 norm 0.0330 c2scaleshockgyerr 0.025 0.0377 100.0000 invg 0.0200 c2rhozc1 0.216 0.2139 100.0000 norm 0.0150 c2rhozc2 0.000 0.0002 100.0000 norm 0.0001 c2scalezcerr 0.011 0.0110 100.0000 invg 0.0001 c2rhothetapvar 0.740 0.7373 100.0000 beta 0.0150 c2scalethetapvarerr 0.477 0.4761 100.0000 invg 0.0500 c2rhothetawvar 0.977 0.9777 100.0000 norm 0.0150 c2scalethetawvarerr 3.699 3.6996 100.0000 invg 0.0500 c2rhoomegacm1 0.000 -0.0003 100.0000 norm 0.0090 c2rhoomegacm2 0.002 0.0010 100.0000 norm 0.0400 c2scaleomegacmerr 0.041 0.0466 100.0000 invg 0.0100 c2rhoyo1 0.000 -0.0040 100.0000 norm 0.1300 c2rhoyo2 0.038 0.0393 100.0000 norm 0.0005 c2scaleyoerr 0.018 0.0177 100.0000 invg 0.0001 c2rhomuoc1 0.000 -0.0001 100.0000 norm 0.0005 c2rhomuoc2 0.014 0.0167 100.0000 norm 0.0900 c2scalemuocerr 0.127 0.1268 100.0000 invg 0.0400 c2rhomuc 0.919 0.9177 100.0000 beta 0.0150 c2scalemucerr 0.717 0.7216 100.0000 invg 0.0500 Log data density [Laplace approximation] is Inf. Estimation::mcmc: Multiple chains mode. Estimation::mcmc: Old mh-files successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Old metropolis.log file successfully erased! Estimation::mcmc: Creation of a new metropolis.log file. Estimation::mcmc: Searching for initial values... Estimation::mcmc: I couldn't get a valid initial value in 100 trials. Estimation::mcmc: You should reduce mh_init_scale... Estimation::mcmc: Parameter mh_init_scale is equal to 0.400000. Estimation::mcmc: Enter a new value... 0.0000000004 Estimation::mcmc: Initial values found! Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok! Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in nonlinearomega/metropolis/nonlinearomega_mh_history_0.mat Estimation::mcmc: Number of mh files: 2 per block. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated files: 4. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of iterations: 2100. Estimation::mcmc: Current acceptance ratio per chain: Chain 1: 24.5121% Chain 2: 22.2275% Estimation::mcmc::diagnostics: Univariate convergence diagnostic, Brooks and Gelman (1998): Parameter 1... Done! Parameter 2... Done! Parameter 3... Done! Parameter 4... Done! Parameter 5... Done! Parameter 6... Done! Parameter 7... Done! Parameter 8... Done! Parameter 9... Done! Parameter 10... Done! Parameter 11... Done! Parameter 12... Done! Parameter 13... Done! Parameter 14... Done! Parameter 15... Done! Parameter 16... Done! Parameter 17... Done! Parameter 18... Done! Parameter 19... Done! Parameter 20... Done! Parameter 21... Done! Parameter 22... Done! Parameter 23... Done! Parameter 24... Done! Parameter 25... Done! Parameter 26... Done! Parameter 27... Done! Parameter 28... Done! Parameter 29... Done! Parameter 30... Done! Parameter 31... Done! Parameter 32... Done! Parameter 33... Done! Parameter 34... Done! Parameter 35... Done! Parameter 36... Done! Parameter 37... Done! Parameter 38... Done! Parameter 39... Done! Parameter 40... Done! Parameter 41... Done! Parameter 42... Done! Parameter 43... Done! Parameter 44... Done! Parameter 45... Done! Parameter 46... Done! Parameter 47... Done! Parameter 48... Done! Parameter 49... Done! Parameter 50... Done! Parameter 51... Done! Parameter 52... Done! Parameter 53... Done! Parameter 54... Done! Parameter 55... Done! Parameter 56... Done! Parameter 57... Done! Parameter 58... Done! Parameter 59... Done! Parameter 60... Done! Parameter 61... Done! Parameter 62... Done! Parameter 63... Done! Parameter 64... Done! Parameter 65... Done! Parameter 66... Done! Parameter 67... Done! Parameter 68... Done! Parameter 69... Done! Parameter 70... Done! Parameter 71... Done! Parameter 72... Done! Parameter 73... Done! Parameter 74... Done! Parameter 75... Done! Parameter 76... Done! Parameter 77... Done! Parameter 78... Done! Parameter 79... Done! Parameter 80... Done! Parameter 81... Done! Parameter 82... Done! Parameter 83... Done! Parameter 84... Done! Parameter 85... Done! Parameter 86... Done! Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws per chain: 2100. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 2. Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 1 to 2. Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 1 I'll start at line 1051. Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep 1050 draws per chain. Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior mean and covariance... Done! Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior log marginal density (modified harmonic mean)... Estimation::marginal density: The support of the weighting density function is not large enough... Estimation::marginal density: I increase the variance of this distribution. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: Let me try again. Estimation::marginal density: There's probably a problem with the modified harmonic mean estimator. ESTIMATION RESULTS Log data density is -Inf. parameters prior mean post. mean 90% HPD interval prior pstdev c1delta 0.025 0.0290 0.0289 0.0291 norm 0.2000 c1grmuoss 1.003 1.0100 1.0099 1.0101 norm 0.1500 c1grmuzss 1.006 1.0200 1.0200 1.0200 norm 0.1500 c1vkappa 0.651 0.6492 0.6490 0.6495 beta 0.1500 c1psii 3.515 3.5153 3.5151 3.5154 gamma 1.0000 c1rhoc 1.321 1.3225 1.3224 1.3227 norm 5.0000 c1rhoo -1.732 -1.7268 -1.7269 -1.7267 norm 5.0000 c1rhov -2.000 -2.0007 -2.0008 -2.0006 norm 5.0000 c1chi 59.540 59.5474 59.5474 59.5475 norm 15.0000 c1iotap 0.000 0.0024 0.0021 0.0026 norm 0.0025 c1iotaw 0.000 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0002 norm 0.0032 c1xip 0.814 0.8120 0.8119 0.8122 beta 0.1500 c1xiw 0.890 0.8933 0.8931 0.8934 beta 0.1500 c1gamrs 0.655 0.6549 0.6547 0.6551 beta 0.1500 c1gamdpc 0.191 0.1937 0.1934 0.1939 norm 0.5000 c1gamgdpgap 0.000 -0.0032 -0.0034 -0.0030 norm 0.1000 c1rhopitar 0.403 0.4070 0.4069 0.4071 norm 0.1500 c1scalepitarerr 0.022 0.0214 0.0212 0.0216 invg 0.2000 c1rhozi 0.906 0.9059 0.9057 0.9061 norm 0.1000 c1scalezierr 0.026 0.0242 0.0241 0.0243 invg 0.2000 c1rhogy 0.999 0.9995 0.9994 0.9998 norm 0.3300 c1scaleshockgyerr 0.025 0.0412 0.0410 0.0414 invg 0.0200 c1rhozc1 0.216 0.2213 0.2212 0.2214 norm 0.1500 c1rhozc2 0.000 0.0004 0.0003 0.0005 norm 0.0001 c1scalezcerr 0.007 0.0069 0.0068 0.0069 invg 0.0001 c1rhozw1 0.010 0.0044 0.0043 0.0046 norm 0.0500 c1rhozw2 0.001 0.0036 0.0035 0.0038 norm 0.0300 c1scalezwerr 0.001 0.0158 0.0155 0.0160 invg 0.0005 c1rhomuow1 0.001 -0.0006 -0.0007 -0.0005 norm 0.0015 c1rhomuow2 0.001 0.0010 0.0010 0.0011 norm 0.0015 c1scalemuowerr 0.001 0.0036 0.0035 0.0037 invg 0.0005 c1rhothetapvar 0.740 0.7429 0.7427 0.7430 beta 0.1500 c1scalethetapvarerr 0.477 0.4791 0.4789 0.4793 invg 5.0000 c1rhothetawvar 0.977 0.9825 0.9822 0.9826 norm 0.1500 c1scalethetawvarerr 3.699 3.6927 3.6925 3.6930 invg 5.0000 c1rhoyo1 0.124 0.1280 0.1279 0.1281 norm 0.1300 c1rhoyo2 0.000 0.0025 0.0023 0.0026 norm 0.0005 c1scaleyoerr 0.025 0.0246 0.0243 0.0248 invg 0.0010 c1rhomuoc1 0.000 -0.0018 -0.0019 -0.0016 norm 0.0005 c1rhomuoc2 0.014 0.0173 0.0172 0.0174 norm 0.0900 c1scalemuocerr 0.047 0.1097 0.1092 0.1102 invg 0.0400 c1rhoomegacm1 0.000 0.0026 0.0024 0.0027 norm 0.0090 c1rhoomegacm2 0.002 0.0069 0.0068 0.0070 norm 0.0400 c1scaleomegacmerr 0.027 0.0202 0.0200 0.0204 invg 0.0100 c1rhomuc 0.919 0.9165 0.9162 0.9168 beta 0.0150 c1scalemucerr 0.648 0.6481 0.6480 0.6482 invg 0.0500 c2delta 0.025 0.0244 0.0243 0.0246 norm 0.0200 c2grmuoss 1.003 0.9973 0.9973 0.9974 norm 0.1500 c2grmuzss 1.006 1.0055 1.0052 1.0056 norm 0.1500 c2vkappa 0.651 0.6499 0.6498 0.6500 beta 0.1500 c2psii 3.515 3.5136 3.5135 3.5137 gamma 1.0000 c2rhoc 1.321 1.3182 1.3181 1.3183 norm 5.0000 c2rhoo -1.732 -1.7359 -1.7360 -1.7358 norm 5.0000 c2rhov -2.000 -2.0028 -2.0032 -2.0026 norm 5.0000 c2chi 59.540 59.5429 59.5428 59.5431 norm 15.0000 c2xip 0.814 0.8084 0.8082 0.8085 beta 0.1500 c2xiw 0.890 0.8898 0.8897 0.8899 beta 0.1500 c2iotap 0.500 0.4932 0.4930 0.4934 beta 0.1500 c2iotaw 0.500 0.5018 0.5017 0.5019 beta 0.1500 c2gamrs 0.655 0.6559 0.6558 0.6560 beta 0.1500 c2gamdpc 0.191 0.1820 0.1819 0.1822 norm 0.5000 c2gamgdpgap 0.000 0.0019 0.0016 0.0022 norm 0.1000 c2rhopitar 0.500 0.5030 0.5029 0.5031 norm 0.1500 c2scalepitarerr 0.022 0.0241 0.0240 0.0243 invg 0.0200 c2rhozi 0.900 0.9036 0.9034 0.9038 norm 0.1000 c2scalezierr 0.026 0.0326 0.0324 0.0328 invg 0.0200 c2rhogy 0.999 0.9990 0.9989 0.9992 norm 0.0330 c2scaleshockgyerr 0.025 0.0379 0.0378 0.0380 invg 0.0200 c2rhozc1 0.216 0.2140 0.2139 0.2141 norm 0.0150 c2rhozc2 0.000 0.0004 0.0003 0.0006 norm 0.0001 c2scalezcerr 0.011 0.0111 0.0111 0.0111 invg 0.0001 c2rhothetapvar 0.740 0.7375 0.7373 0.7377 beta 0.0150 c2scalethetapvarerr 0.477 0.4762 0.4760 0.4764 invg 0.0500 c2rhothetawvar 0.977 0.9779 0.9775 0.9783 norm 0.0150 c2scalethetawvarerr 3.699 3.6997 3.6996 3.6997 invg 0.0500 c2rhoomegacm1 0.000 -0.0005 -0.0008 -0.0002 norm 0.0090 c2rhoomegacm2 0.002 0.0009 0.0007 0.0011 norm 0.0400 c2scaleomegacmerr 0.041 0.0470 0.0468 0.0472 invg 0.0100 c2rhoyo1 0.000 -0.0041 -0.0043 -0.0039 norm 0.1300 c2rhoyo2 0.038 0.0395 0.0394 0.0396 norm 0.0005 c2scaleyoerr 0.018 0.0180 0.0175 0.0184 invg 0.0001 c2rhomuoc1 0.000 0.0001 -0.0001 0.0003 norm 0.0005 c2rhomuoc2 0.014 0.0167 0.0166 0.0168 norm 0.0900 c2scalemuocerr 0.127 0.1269 0.1267 0.1271 invg 0.0400 c2rhomuc 0.919 0.9177 0.9177 0.9178 beta 0.0150 c2scalemucerr 0.717 0.7217 0.7216 0.7218 invg 0.0500 Estimation::mcmc: Posterior (dsge) IRFs... Estimation::mcmc: Posterior IRFs, done! Warning: Range cannot be used in 'basic' mode. The entire sheet will be loaded. > In xlsread at 199 In load_xls_file_data at 77 In dseries.dseries at 131 In makedataset at 103 In dynare_estimation_init at 531 In evaluate_smoother at 54 In shock_decomposition at 65 In nonlinearomega at 2193 In dynare at 223 Total computing time : 1h54m43s Note: warning(s) encountered in MATLAB/Octave cod