Starting Dynare (version 4.4.3). Starting preprocessing of the model file ... Found 40 equation(s). Evaluating expressions...done Computing static model derivatives: - order 1 - order 2 - derivatives of Jacobian/Hessian w.r. to parameters Computing dynamic model derivatives: - order 1 - order 2 - derivatives of Jacobian/Hessian w.r. to parameters Processing outputs ...done Preprocessing completed. Starting MATLAB/Octave computing. STEADY: numerical initial values or parameters incompatible with the following equations Columns 1 through 12 5 6 7 8 10 11 16 17 18 19 21 22 Columns 13 through 19 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Check whether your model in truly linear The steadystate file changed the values for the following parameters: constepinf constebeta ccs cinvs crdpi ctrend The derivatives of jacobian and steady-state will be computed numerically (re-set options_.analytic_derivation_mode= -2) ==== Identification analysis ==== Testing prior mean All parameters are identified in the model (rank of H). WARNING !!! The rank of J (moments) is deficient! [cmap,crhopinf] are PAIRWISE collinear (with tol = 1.e-10) ! [cmaw,crhow] are PAIRWISE collinear (with tol = 1.e-10) ! ==== Identification analysis completed ==== You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command. Smoothed variables will be computed for the 40 endogenous variables of your model, this can be very long.... Choose one of the following options: [1] Consider all the endogenous variables. [2] Consider all the observed endogenous variables. [3] Stop Dynare and change the mod file. options [default is 1] = 1 The steadystate file changed the values for the following parameters: ccs cinvs crdpi The derivatives of jacobian and steady-state will be computed numerically (re-set options_.analytic_derivation_mode= -2) Loading 230 observations from usmodel_data.mat Restricting the sample to observations 71 to 230. Using in total 160 observations. Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -946.8147 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.8147277559 Predicted improvement: 153.155228901 lambda = 1; f = 946.8191093 lambda = 0.33333; f = 946.8147387 lambda = 0.11111; f = 923.8365259 Norm of dx 0.17502 ---- Improvement on iteration 1 = 22.978201837 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 923.8365259193 Predicted improvement: 116.248526551 lambda = 1; f = 923.8385613 lambda = 0.33333; f = 913.8715656 lambda = 0.11111; f = 910.6326329 Norm of dx 0.20523 ---- Improvement on iteration 2 = 13.203893059 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 910.6326328606 Predicted improvement: 26.997465896 lambda = 1; f = 910.1913162 lambda = 0.33333; f = 898.9344157 Norm of dx 0.088238 ---- Improvement on iteration 3 = 11.698217145 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 898.9344157156 Predicted improvement: 5.385780025 lambda = 1; f = 892.3421439 Norm of dx 0.037176 ---- Improvement on iteration 4 = 6.592271850 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 892.3421438655 Predicted improvement: 5.551060895 lambda = 1; f = 887.3099592 Norm of dx 0.058313 ---- Improvement on iteration 5 = 5.032184660 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 887.3099592058 Predicted improvement: 1.489666983 lambda = 1; f = 885.1655948 lambda = 1.9332; f = 884.7407336 Norm of dx 0.02139 ---- Improvement on iteration 6 = 2.569225593 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 884.7407336132 Predicted improvement: 2.723210053 lambda = 1; f = 881.5390692 Norm of dx 0.039762 ---- Improvement on iteration 7 = 3.201664368 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 881.5390692456 Predicted improvement: 2.704432532 lambda = 1; f = 877.0081744 lambda = 1.9332; f = 874.5316043 Norm of dx 0.053604 ---- Improvement on iteration 8 = 7.007464931 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 874.5316043149 Predicted improvement: 3.437243815 lambda = 1; f = 869.2142233 lambda = 1.9332; f = 867.4074557 Norm of dx 0.093967 ---- Improvement on iteration 9 = 7.124148607 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 867.4074557080 Predicted improvement: 3.502808356 lambda = 1; f = 861.9561908 lambda = 1.9332; f = 859.3118530 Norm of dx 0.06796 ---- Improvement on iteration 10 = 8.095602681 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 859.3118530275 Predicted improvement: 2.335550827 lambda = 1; f = 855.7397303 lambda = 1.9332; f = 854.5812090 Norm of dx 0.06309 ---- Improvement on iteration 11 = 4.730643999 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 854.5812090290 Predicted improvement: 1.251576381 lambda = 1; f = 852.4106881 lambda = 1.9332; f = 850.9999778 lambda = 3.7372; f = 850.0626209 Norm of dx 0.039383 ---- Improvement on iteration 12 = 4.518588165 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 850.0626208640 Predicted improvement: 1.194042987 lambda = 1; f = 848.3483781 lambda = 1.9332; f = 847.9169974 Norm of dx 0.030787 ---- Improvement on iteration 13 = 2.145623452 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 847.9169974122 Predicted improvement: 0.457817540 lambda = 1; f = 847.2909430 Norm of dx 0.051297 ---- Improvement on iteration 14 = 0.626054402 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 847.2909430098 Predicted improvement: 0.316158196 lambda = 1; f = 846.8780718 Norm of dx 0.031735 ---- Improvement on iteration 15 = 0.412871230 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 846.8780717794 Predicted improvement: 0.180866749 lambda = 1; f = 846.6157413 lambda = 1.9332; f = 846.5508560 Norm of dx 0.013141 ---- Improvement on iteration 16 = 0.327215815 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 846.5508559648 Predicted improvement: 0.174659470 lambda = 1; f = 846.2581587 lambda = 1.9332; f = 846.0765731 lambda = 3.7372; f = 845.9316064 Norm of dx 0.0090138 ---- Improvement on iteration 17 = 0.619249565 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 845.9316064002 Predicted improvement: 0.368506030 lambda = 1; f = 845.3550425 lambda = 1.9332; f = 845.1141399 Norm of dx 0.022759 ---- Improvement on iteration 18 = 0.817466470 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 845.1141399299 Predicted improvement: 0.196201103 lambda = 1; f = 844.8086577 lambda = 1.9332; f = 844.6829601 Norm of dx 0.028689 ---- Improvement on iteration 19 = 0.431179781 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 844.6829601487 Predicted improvement: 0.156248580 lambda = 1; f = 844.4250692 lambda = 1.9332; f = 844.2822651 Norm of dx 0.012876 ---- Improvement on iteration 20 = 0.400695045 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 844.2822651041 Predicted improvement: 0.165047799 lambda = 1; f = 844.0486274 lambda = 1.9332; f = 844.0062246 Norm of dx 0.020765 ---- Improvement on iteration 21 = 0.276040466 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 844.0062246379 Predicted improvement: 0.076375447 lambda = 1; f = 843.8780683 lambda = 1.9332; f = 843.8032435 Norm of dx 0.0050882 ---- Improvement on iteration 22 = 0.202981115 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 843.8032435229 Predicted improvement: 0.102376268 lambda = 1; f = 843.6586265 lambda = 1.9332; f = 843.6366415 Norm of dx 0.014489 ---- Improvement on iteration 23 = 0.166601986 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 843.6366415369 Predicted improvement: 0.055245163 lambda = 1; f = 843.5457739 lambda = 1.9332; f = 843.4962976 Norm of dx 0.0051995 ---- Improvement on iteration 24 = 0.140343964 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 843.4962975731 Predicted improvement: 0.073395111 lambda = 1; f = 843.3798302 lambda = 1.9332; f = 843.3243842 Norm of dx 0.015023 ---- Improvement on iteration 25 = 0.171913348 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 843.3243842248 Predicted improvement: 0.072423760 lambda = 1; f = 843.2097418 lambda = 1.9332; f = 843.1639053 Norm of dx 0.016052 ---- Improvement on iteration 26 = 0.160478966 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 843.1639052586 Predicted improvement: 0.042570966 lambda = 1; f = 843.0970575 lambda = 1.9332; f = 843.0676916 Norm of dx 0.0061662 ---- Improvement on iteration 27 = 0.096213635 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 843.0676916239 Predicted improvement: 0.031470163 lambda = 1; f = 843.0194319 lambda = 1.9332; f = 843.0006789 Norm of dx 0.0046889 ---- Improvement on iteration 28 = 0.067012752 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 843.0006788720 Predicted improvement: 0.017410196 lambda = 1; f = 842.9727043 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.9589800 Norm of dx 0.0063579 ---- Improvement on iteration 29 = 0.041698866 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.9589800060 Predicted improvement: 0.018312742 lambda = 1; f = 842.9302426 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.9177393 Norm of dx 0.008492 ---- Improvement on iteration 30 = 0.041240687 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.9177393192 Predicted improvement: 0.024746456 lambda = 1; f = 842.8795334 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.8640644 Norm of dx 0.0073862 ---- Improvement on iteration 31 = 0.053674917 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.8640644020 Predicted improvement: 0.029713134 lambda = 1; f = 842.8154989 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.7894479 Norm of dx 0.0076437 ---- Improvement on iteration 32 = 0.074616454 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.7894479481 Predicted improvement: 0.045692586 lambda = 1; f = 842.7160889 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.6805867 Norm of dx 0.014749 ---- Improvement on iteration 33 = 0.108861235 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.6805867135 Predicted improvement: 0.049245703 lambda = 1; f = 842.6060624 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.5802736 Norm of dx 0.019525 ---- Improvement on iteration 34 = 0.100313161 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.5802735521 Predicted improvement: 0.028171164 lambda = 1; f = 842.5413948 Norm of dx 0.011734 ---- Improvement on iteration 35 = 0.038878740 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.5413948125 Predicted improvement: 0.020934541 lambda = 1; f = 842.5109057 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.5029128 Norm of dx 0.0085469 ---- Improvement on iteration 36 = 0.038482015 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.5029127972 Predicted improvement: 0.010003762 lambda = 1; f = 842.4871977 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.4801377 Norm of dx 0.0040249 ---- Improvement on iteration 37 = 0.022775083 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.4801377146 Predicted improvement: 0.003489041 lambda = 1; f = 842.4750286 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.4735945 Norm of dx 0.0031677 ---- Improvement on iteration 38 = 0.006543234 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.4735944809 Predicted improvement: 0.002233683 lambda = 1; f = 842.4696056 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.4667491 lambda = 3.7372; f = 842.4636129 Norm of dx 0.001197 ---- Improvement on iteration 39 = 0.009981560 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.4636129212 Predicted improvement: 0.003044704 lambda = 1; f = 842.4583163 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.4548058 lambda = 3.7372; f = 842.4519496 Norm of dx 0.0020798 ---- Improvement on iteration 40 = 0.011663294 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.4519496274 Predicted improvement: 0.007160610 lambda = 1; f = 842.4388077 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.4286684 lambda = 3.7372; f = 842.4148671 Norm of dx 0.0050215 ---- Improvement on iteration 41 = 0.037082512 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.4148671153 Predicted improvement: 0.014383069 lambda = 1; f = 842.3953278 Norm of dx 0.014027 ---- Improvement on iteration 42 = 0.019539326 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.3953277894 Predicted improvement: 0.008862008 lambda = 1; f = 842.3817776 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.3766651 Norm of dx 0.010291 ---- Improvement on iteration 43 = 0.018662641 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.3766651487 Predicted improvement: 0.006676117 lambda = 1; f = 842.3652842 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.3582296 lambda = 3.7372; f = 842.3544054 Norm of dx 0.0032223 ---- Improvement on iteration 44 = 0.022259708 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.3544054408 Predicted improvement: 0.003983041 lambda = 1; f = 842.3480957 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.3451913 Norm of dx 0.002143 ---- Improvement on iteration 45 = 0.009214114 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.3451913272 Predicted improvement: 0.003183189 lambda = 1; f = 842.3398629 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.3367527 Norm of dx 0.0048164 ---- Improvement on iteration 46 = 0.008438578 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.3367527491 Predicted improvement: 0.005658628 lambda = 1; f = 842.3274243 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.3222891 Norm of dx 0.0092799 ---- Improvement on iteration 47 = 0.014463617 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.3222891325 Predicted improvement: 0.009229161 lambda = 1; f = 842.3068677 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.2979469 Norm of dx 0.011158 ---- Improvement on iteration 48 = 0.024342218 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.2979469150 Predicted improvement: 0.015351636 lambda = 1; f = 842.2735030 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.2620195 Norm of dx 0.013865 ---- Improvement on iteration 49 = 0.035927402 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.2620195129 Predicted improvement: 0.016827299 lambda = 1; f = 842.2331862 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.2149758 lambda = 3.7372; f = 842.2036349 Norm of dx 0.012459 ---- Improvement on iteration 50 = 0.058384612 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.2036349011 Predicted improvement: 0.018232781 lambda = 1; f = 842.1767814 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.1687263 Norm of dx 0.0097141 ---- Improvement on iteration 51 = 0.034908579 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.1687263221 Predicted improvement: 0.002324125 lambda = 1; f = 842.1649456 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.1629821 Norm of dx 0.010125 ---- Improvement on iteration 52 = 0.005744218 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.1629821042 Predicted improvement: 0.002870430 lambda = 1; f = 842.1581214 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.1551716 lambda = 3.7372; f = 842.1538031 Norm of dx 0.0075841 ---- Improvement on iteration 53 = 0.009178971 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.1538031327 Predicted improvement: 0.004551230 lambda = 1; f = 842.1457280 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.1400576 lambda = 3.7372; f = 842.1342692 Norm of dx 0.0083706 ---- Improvement on iteration 54 = 0.019533961 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.1342691715 Predicted improvement: 0.008731466 lambda = 1; f = 842.1184863 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.1068395 lambda = 3.7372; f = 842.0930678 Norm of dx 0.0078646 ---- Improvement on iteration 55 = 0.041201385 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.0930677862 Predicted improvement: 0.026676420 lambda = 1; f = 842.0487727 lambda = 1.9332; f = 842.0238914 Norm of dx 0.04399 ---- Improvement on iteration 56 = 0.069176413 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 842.0238913730 Predicted improvement: 0.028294490 lambda = 1; f = 841.9886777 Norm of dx 0.047988 ---- Improvement on iteration 57 = 0.035213661 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.9886777117 Predicted improvement: 0.005810129 lambda = 1; f = 841.9806448 Norm of dx 0.005194 ---- Improvement on iteration 58 = 0.008032865 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.9806448470 Predicted improvement: 0.004303610 lambda = 1; f = 841.9736102 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.9698790 Norm of dx 0.0035876 ---- Improvement on iteration 59 = 0.010765816 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.9698790312 Predicted improvement: 0.008098436 lambda = 1; f = 841.9548841 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.9430598 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.9261391 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.9156452 Norm of dx 0.007346 ---- Improvement on iteration 60 = 0.054233822 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.9156452089 Predicted improvement: 0.041095848 lambda = 1; f = 841.8384738 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.7754884 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.6783151 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.5817682 Norm of dx 0.038759 ---- Improvement on iteration 61 = 0.333877009 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.5817681995 Predicted improvement: 0.041707017 lambda = 1; f = 841.5317188 Norm of dx 0.093497 ---- Improvement on iteration 62 = 0.050049445 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.5317187548 Predicted improvement: 0.005459260 lambda = 1; f = 841.5237404 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.5215720 Norm of dx 0.0222 ---- Improvement on iteration 63 = 0.010146772 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.5215719832 Predicted improvement: 0.004324498 lambda = 1; f = 841.5131248 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.5056064 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.4920698 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.4696356 lambda = 13.967; f = 841.4402650 Norm of dx 0.0040788 ---- Improvement on iteration 64 = 0.081306991 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.4402649922 Predicted improvement: 0.061636140 lambda = 1; f = 841.3473929 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.3153870 Norm of dx 0.073358 ---- Improvement on iteration 65 = 0.124878000 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.3153869923 Predicted improvement: 0.025241275 lambda = 1; f = 841.2816297 Norm of dx 0.02696 ---- Improvement on iteration 66 = 0.033757330 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2816296624 Predicted improvement: 0.005900392 lambda = 1; f = 841.2749781 Norm of dx 0.012386 ---- Improvement on iteration 67 = 0.006651605 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2749780577 Predicted improvement: 0.000924408 lambda = 1; f = 841.2733250 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2721377 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.2708265 Norm of dx 0.0019807 ---- Improvement on iteration 68 = 0.004151564 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2708264936 Predicted improvement: 0.002736048 lambda = 1; f = 841.2659421 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2624562 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.2587164 Norm of dx 0.0038207 ---- Improvement on iteration 69 = 0.012110057 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2587164362 Predicted improvement: 0.006245655 lambda = 1; f = 841.2488724 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2444038 Norm of dx 0.014427 ---- Improvement on iteration 70 = 0.014312626 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2444038105 Predicted improvement: 0.002813029 lambda = 1; f = 841.2407661 Norm of dx 0.0054081 ---- Improvement on iteration 71 = 0.003637674 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2407661360 Predicted improvement: 0.000655838 lambda = 1; f = 841.2400394 Norm of dx 0.0043271 ---- Improvement on iteration 72 = 0.000726699 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2400394371 Predicted improvement: 0.000096352 lambda = 1; f = 841.2398734 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2397665 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.2396911 Norm of dx 0.0018974 ---- Improvement on iteration 73 = 0.000348309 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2396911282 Predicted improvement: 0.000286519 lambda = 1; f = 841.2391372 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2386547 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.2378162 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.2365470 lambda = 13.967; f = 841.2354055 Norm of dx 0.0010686 ---- Improvement on iteration 74 = 0.004285604 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2354055246 Predicted improvement: 0.002120075 lambda = 1; f = 841.2322768 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2313626 Norm of dx 0.0061314 ---- Improvement on iteration 75 = 0.004042909 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2313626155 Predicted improvement: 0.000266521 lambda = 1; f = 841.2310177 Norm of dx 0.0044149 ---- Improvement on iteration 76 = 0.000344885 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2310177305 Predicted improvement: 0.000069364 lambda = 1; f = 841.2309202 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2309031 Norm of dx 0.00258 ---- Improvement on iteration 77 = 0.000114589 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2309031413 Predicted improvement: 0.000049498 lambda = 1; f = 841.2308073 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2307235 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.2305772 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.2303526 lambda = 13.967; f = 841.2301376 Norm of dx 0.00056326 ---- Improvement on iteration 78 = 0.000765503 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2301376385 Predicted improvement: 0.000637893 lambda = 1; f = 841.2289567 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2280256 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.2266932 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.2258616 Norm of dx 0.0024461 ---- Improvement on iteration 79 = 0.004276068 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2258615706 Predicted improvement: 0.000453628 lambda = 1; f = 841.2252970 Norm of dx 0.0071885 ---- Improvement on iteration 80 = 0.000564551 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2252970194 Predicted improvement: 0.000144195 lambda = 1; f = 841.2250481 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2248868 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.2247689 Norm of dx 0.0023193 ---- Improvement on iteration 81 = 0.000528117 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.2247689020 Predicted improvement: 0.000373976 lambda = 1; f = 841.2240261 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.2233422 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.2220456 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.2196341 lambda = 13.967; f = 841.2153277 lambda = 27; f = 841.2083319 lambda = 52.196; f = 841.1997828 Norm of dx 0.0014612 ---- Improvement on iteration 82 = 0.024986132 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.1997827700 Predicted improvement: 0.006187961 lambda = 1; f = 841.1924021 Norm of dx 0.045249 ---- Improvement on iteration 83 = 0.007380716 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.1924020541 Predicted improvement: 0.001027514 lambda = 1; f = 841.1907643 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.1899876 Norm of dx 0.011765 ---- Improvement on iteration 84 = 0.002414465 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.1899875891 Predicted improvement: 0.001489905 lambda = 1; f = 841.1871635 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.1848086 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.1810224 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.1765554 Norm of dx 0.009622 ---- Improvement on iteration 85 = 0.013432182 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.1765554072 Predicted improvement: 0.011450474 lambda = 1; f = 841.1562057 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.1418352 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.1267963 Norm of dx 0.055858 ---- Improvement on iteration 86 = 0.049759125 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.1267962825 Predicted improvement: 0.013600127 lambda = 1; f = 841.1091668 Norm of dx 0.038022 ---- Improvement on iteration 87 = 0.017629437 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.1091668451 Predicted improvement: 0.002209366 lambda = 1; f = 841.1067281 Norm of dx 0.006802 ---- Improvement on iteration 88 = 0.002438753 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.1067280925 Predicted improvement: 0.000363479 lambda = 1; f = 841.1060382 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.1054613 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.1045290 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.1034117 Norm of dx 0.0010739 ---- Improvement on iteration 89 = 0.003316441 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.1034116515 Predicted improvement: 0.003004021 lambda = 1; f = 841.0980115 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0940739 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.0895053 Norm of dx 0.013712 ---- Improvement on iteration 90 = 0.013906328 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0895053233 Predicted improvement: 0.005122796 lambda = 1; f = 841.0828358 Norm of dx 0.030595 ---- Improvement on iteration 91 = 0.006669555 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0828357680 Predicted improvement: 0.000876215 lambda = 1; f = 841.0819414 Norm of dx 0.0082844 ---- Improvement on iteration 92 = 0.000894339 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0819414290 Predicted improvement: 0.000007568 lambda = 1; f = 841.0819277 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0819174 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.0819044 Norm of dx 0.00040561 ---- Improvement on iteration 93 = 0.000037032 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0819043974 Predicted improvement: 0.000033992 lambda = 1; f = 841.0818417 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0817926 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.0817237 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.0816876 Norm of dx 0.00066495 ---- Improvement on iteration 94 = 0.000216793 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0816876041 Predicted improvement: 0.000140931 lambda = 1; f = 841.0814442 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0812865 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.0811716 Norm of dx 0.0026052 ---- Improvement on iteration 95 = 0.000515971 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0811716326 Predicted improvement: 0.000023540 lambda = 1; f = 841.0811464 Norm of dx 0.001027 ---- Improvement on iteration 96 = 0.000025195 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0811464381 Predicted improvement: 0.000000307 lambda = 1; f = 841.0811460 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0811459 Norm of dx 7.3448e-05 ---- Improvement on iteration 97 = 0.000000570 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0811458684 Predicted improvement: 0.000000259 lambda = 1; f = 841.0811454 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0811449 lambda = 3.7372; f = 841.0811440 lambda = 7.2247; f = 841.0811425 lambda = 13.967; f = 841.0811400 lambda = 27; f = 841.0811371 Norm of dx 1.9387e-05 ---- Improvement on iteration 98 = 0.000008778 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0811370903 Predicted improvement: 0.000006190 lambda = 1; f = 841.0811276 lambda = 1.9332; f = 841.0811238 Norm of dx 0.00031777 ---- Improvement on iteration 99 = 0.000013247 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0811238430 Predicted improvement: 0.000001539 lambda = 1; f = 841.0811221 Norm of dx 0.00023802 ---- Improvement on iteration 100 = 0.000001792 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 841.0811220507 Predicted improvement: 0.000000060 lambda = 1; f = 841.0811220 Norm of dx 4.8726e-05 ---- Improvement on iteration 101 = 0.000000061 improvement < crit termination Objective function at mode: 841.081122 MODE CHECK Fval obtained by the minimization routine: 841.081122 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev crhoa 0.500 0.9607 0.0100 beta 0.2000 crhob 0.500 0.1833 0.0840 beta 0.2000 crhog 0.500 0.9761 0.0083 beta 0.2000 crhoqs 0.500 0.7032 0.0595 beta 0.2000 crhoms 0.500 0.1227 0.0645 beta 0.2000 crhopinf 0.500 0.9078 0.0456 beta 0.2000 crhow 0.500 0.9743 0.0120 beta 0.2000 cmap 0.500 0.7438 0.0867 beta 0.2000 cmaw 0.500 0.8929 0.0512 beta 0.2000 csadjcost 4.000 5.4879 1.0324 norm 1.5000 csigma 1.500 1.4219 0.1369 norm 0.3750 chabb 0.700 0.7063 0.0419 beta 0.1000 cprobw 0.500 0.7343 0.0714 beta 0.1000 csigl 2.000 1.8749 0.6106 norm 0.7500 cprobp 0.500 0.6542 0.0595 beta 0.1000 cindw 0.500 0.5983 0.1326 beta 0.1500 cindp 0.500 0.2187 0.0896 beta 0.1500 czcap 0.500 0.5453 0.1167 beta 0.1500 cfc 1.250 1.6097 0.0775 norm 0.1250 crpi 1.500 2.0217 0.1771 norm 0.2500 crr 0.750 0.8145 0.0241 beta 0.1000 cry 0.125 0.0881 0.0225 norm 0.0500 crdy 0.125 0.2223 0.0272 norm 0.0500 constepinf 0.625 0.7651 0.1107 gamm 0.1000 constebeta 0.250 0.1444 0.0557 gamm 0.1000 constelab 0.000 0.7262 1.0718 norm 2.0000 ctrend 0.400 0.4344 0.0143 norm 0.1000 cgy 0.500 0.5232 0.0891 norm 0.2500 calfa 0.300 0.1910 0.0175 norm 0.0500 standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev ea 0.100 0.4529 0.0276 invg 2.0000 eb 0.100 0.2416 0.0233 invg 2.0000 eg 0.100 0.5213 0.0300 invg 2.0000 eqs 0.100 0.4552 0.0490 invg 2.0000 em 0.100 0.2389 0.0146 invg 2.0000 epinf 0.100 0.1398 0.0169 invg 2.0000 ew 0.100 0.2465 0.0222 invg 2.0000 Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -922.392949. Total computing time : 0h04m57s Note: warning(s) encountered in MATLAB/Octave code