>> dynare usmodel_updated7_with_forecast Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -1089.2334 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 1089.2334217557 Predicted improvement: 189.922261587 lambda = 1; f = 1089.2375745 lambda = 0.33333; f = 1049.9862944 Norm of dx 0.1949 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 1 = 39.247127396 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 1049.9862943592 Predicted improvement: 120.149063546 lambda = 1; f = 1053.0950287 lambda = 0.33333; f = 1029.4399399 lambda = 0.11111; f = 1034.7088088 Norm of dx 0.17752 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 2 = 20.546354454 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 1029.4399399053 Predicted improvement: 32.420381050 lambda = 1; f = 1044.3865066 lambda = 0.33333; f = 1015.4303736 Norm of dx 0.08872 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 3 = 14.009566317 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 1015.4303735881 Predicted improvement: 6.933906567 lambda = 1; f = 1005.6879402 lambda = 1.9332; f = 1005.7847981 Norm of dx 0.041456 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 4 = 9.742433366 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 1005.6879402224 Predicted improvement: 6.548418287 lambda = 1; f = 1000.5933694 Norm of dx 0.061601 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 5 = 5.094570870 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 1000.5933693527 Predicted improvement: 4.517404630 lambda = 1; f = 996.9332329 Norm of dx 0.025594 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 6 = 3.660136480 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 996.9332328727 Predicted improvement: 1.491665516 lambda = 1; f = 994.2799598 lambda = 1.9332; f = 992.4137970 lambda = 3.7372; f = 990.6228208 Norm of dx 0.018374 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 7 = 6.310412091 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 990.6228207819 Predicted improvement: 4.743239309 lambda = 1; f = 983.7563995 lambda = 1.9332; f = 981.6965696 Norm of dx 0.0853 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 8 = 8.926251169 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 981.6965696128 Predicted improvement: 7.036343422 lambda = 1; f = 973.7132420 Norm of dx 0.15425 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 9 = 7.983327652 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 973.7132419605 Predicted improvement: 3.889377114 lambda = 1; f = 968.4800557 Norm of dx 0.054972 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 10 = 5.233186282 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 968.4800556787 Predicted improvement: 4.399199629 lambda = 1; f = 964.1186841 Norm of dx 0.10962 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 11 = 4.361371589 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 964.1186840899 Predicted improvement: 3.677324166 lambda = 1; f = 960.1947636 Norm of dx 0.054665 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 12 = 3.923920531 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 960.1947635587 Predicted improvement: 3.023765411 lambda = 1; f = 955.4864949 lambda = 1.9332; f = 953.7200905 Norm of dx 0.06296 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 13 = 6.474673093 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 953.7200904653 Predicted improvement: 1.515202720 lambda = 1; f = 951.6587692 Norm of dx 0.051411 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 14 = 2.061321273 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 951.6587691923 Predicted improvement: 0.805111640 lambda = 1; f = 950.6141678 Norm of dx 0.053395 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 15 = 1.044601437 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 950.6141677556 Predicted improvement: 0.388061958 lambda = 1; f = 950.0584088 lambda = 1.9332; f = 949.9314148 Norm of dx 0.016522 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 16 = 0.682752944 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 949.9314148112 Predicted improvement: 0.177929576 lambda = 1; f = 949.6275540 lambda = 1.9332; f = 949.4332501 lambda = 3.7372; f = 949.2825655 Norm of dx 0.0059691 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 17 = 0.648849269 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 949.2825655422 Predicted improvement: 0.220860531 lambda = 1; f = 948.9609805 lambda = 1.9332; f = 948.8825121 Norm of dx 0.020546 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 18 = 0.400053482 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 948.8825120605 Predicted improvement: 0.171082571 lambda = 1; f = 948.6018959 lambda = 1.9332; f = 948.4522635 Norm of dx 0.021774 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 19 = 0.430248514 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 948.4522635469 Predicted improvement: 0.171908112 lambda = 1; f = 948.2177403 Norm of dx 0.019063 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 20 = 0.234523288 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 948.2177402593 Predicted improvement: 0.093266466 lambda = 1; f = 948.0823232 lambda = 1.9332; f = 948.0475091 Norm of dx 0.015513 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 21 = 0.170231154 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 948.0475091053 Predicted improvement: 0.059495809 lambda = 1; f = 947.9415370 lambda = 1.9332; f = 947.8660711 lambda = 3.7372; f = 947.7837878 Norm of dx 0.004207 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 22 = 0.263721312 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 947.7837877936 Predicted improvement: 0.122095390 lambda = 1; f = 947.6106758 lambda = 1.9332; f = 947.5778895 Norm of dx 0.017147 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 23 = 0.205898281 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 947.5778895129 Predicted improvement: 0.072947721 lambda = 1; f = 947.4613534 lambda = 1.9332; f = 947.4053983 Norm of dx 0.0083816 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 24 = 0.172491253 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 947.4053982599 Predicted improvement: 0.057350355 lambda = 1; f = 947.3136661 lambda = 1.9332; f = 947.2699807 Norm of dx 0.011157 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 25 = 0.135417536 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 947.2699807242 Predicted improvement: 0.058209440 lambda = 1; f = 947.1773537 lambda = 1.9332; f = 947.1374316 Norm of dx 0.01113 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 26 = 0.132549149 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 947.1374315748 Predicted improvement: 0.038210238 lambda = 1; f = 947.0805054 lambda = 1.9332; f = 947.0628684 Norm of dx 0.0048621 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 27 = 0.074563218 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 947.0628683564 Predicted improvement: 0.016365930 lambda = 1; f = 947.0347880 lambda = 1.9332; f = 947.0168708 lambda = 3.7372; f = 947.0043456 Norm of dx 0.0022236 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 28 = 0.058522796 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 947.0043455607 Predicted improvement: 0.018390714 lambda = 1; f = 946.9754386 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.9638049 Norm of dx 0.0077468 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 29 = 0.040540613 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.9638049478 Predicted improvement: 0.015988199 lambda = 1; f = 946.9364844 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.9193770 lambda = 3.7372; f = 946.9091375 Norm of dx 0.0050223 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 30 = 0.054667466 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.9091374821 Predicted improvement: 0.024111742 lambda = 1; f = 946.8679287 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.8422794 lambda = 3.7372; f = 946.8283170 Norm of dx 0.0055246 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 31 = 0.080820467 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.8283170151 Predicted improvement: 0.034725672 lambda = 1; f = 946.7694996 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.7339558 lambda = 3.7372; f = 946.7194164 Norm of dx 0.010409 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 32 = 0.108900570 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.7194164454 Predicted improvement: 0.048453379 lambda = 1; f = 946.6458420 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.6213721 Norm of dx 0.012924 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 33 = 0.098044366 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.6213720796 Predicted improvement: 0.019484808 lambda = 1; f = 946.5911724 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.5788860 Norm of dx 0.010197 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 34 = 0.042486063 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.5788860166 Predicted improvement: 0.016830695 lambda = 1; f = 946.5493420 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.5291936 lambda = 3.7372; f = 946.5104727 Norm of dx 0.0085473 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 35 = 0.068413349 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.5104726678 Predicted improvement: 0.021258260 lambda = 1; f = 946.4754951 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.4564681 Norm of dx 0.0055147 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 36 = 0.054004561 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.4564681066 Predicted improvement: 0.027652290 lambda = 1; f = 946.4130781 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.3939183 Norm of dx 0.012288 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 37 = 0.062549808 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.3939182981 Predicted improvement: 0.021552215 lambda = 1; f = 946.3614409 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.3502245 Norm of dx 0.010972 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 38 = 0.043693803 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.3502244956 Predicted improvement: 0.006838268 lambda = 1; f = 946.3396160 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.3352955 Norm of dx 0.0020813 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 39 = 0.014929040 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.3352954554 Predicted improvement: 0.006744177 lambda = 1; f = 946.3247866 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.3203571 Norm of dx 0.0022843 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 40 = 0.014938359 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.3203570967 Predicted improvement: 0.007833689 lambda = 1; f = 946.3087947 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.3054463 Norm of dx 0.0076489 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 41 = 0.014910777 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.3054463198 Predicted improvement: 0.003970902 lambda = 1; f = 946.2987140 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.2946141 lambda = 3.7372; f = 946.2926366 Norm of dx 0.0016842 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 42 = 0.012809676 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.2926366442 Predicted improvement: 0.005362860 lambda = 1; f = 946.2836631 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.2785003 Norm of dx 0.0040119 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 43 = 0.014136304 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.2785003406 Predicted improvement: 0.006837096 lambda = 1; f = 946.2682285 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.2648380 Norm of dx 0.0067178 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 44 = 0.013662293 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.2648380480 Predicted improvement: 0.005094080 lambda = 1; f = 946.2557444 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.2492271 lambda = 3.7372; f = 946.2420084 Norm of dx 0.0030822 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 45 = 0.022829692 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.2420083558 Predicted improvement: 0.004425588 lambda = 1; f = 946.2359172 Norm of dx 0.0035883 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 46 = 0.006091128 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.2359172278 Predicted improvement: 0.002339078 lambda = 1; f = 946.2325700 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.2318466 Norm of dx 0.0026136 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 47 = 0.004070608 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.2318466197 Predicted improvement: 0.001536852 lambda = 1; f = 946.2289427 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.2265427 lambda = 3.7372; f = 946.2227517 lambda = 7.2247; f = 946.2185970 Norm of dx 0.00072757 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 48 = 0.013249620 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.2185969997 Predicted improvement: 0.006361127 lambda = 1; f = 946.2079769 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.2018509 Norm of dx 0.0075036 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 49 = 0.016746067 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.2018509327 Predicted improvement: 0.009819186 lambda = 1; f = 946.1864854 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.1797898 Norm of dx 0.013516 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 50 = 0.022061141 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.1797897914 Predicted improvement: 0.008083042 lambda = 1; f = 946.1666861 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.1599586 Norm of dx 0.0072889 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 51 = 0.019831229 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.1599585620 Predicted improvement: 0.006563056 lambda = 1; f = 946.1495185 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.1446311 Norm of dx 0.004184 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 52 = 0.015327447 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.1446311151 Predicted improvement: 0.007982128 lambda = 1; f = 946.1305042 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.1207590 lambda = 3.7372; f = 946.1116657 Norm of dx 0.0074086 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 53 = 0.032965399 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.1116657158 Predicted improvement: 0.009936085 lambda = 1; f = 946.0974012 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.0942593 Norm of dx 0.012639 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 54 = 0.017406413 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.0942593032 Predicted improvement: 0.002363966 lambda = 1; f = 946.0899088 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.0865125 lambda = 3.7372; f = 946.0817608 lambda = 7.2247; f = 946.0793392 Norm of dx 0.0017344 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 55 = 0.014920126 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 946.0793391773 Predicted improvement: 0.012325642 lambda = 1; f = 946.0555542 lambda = 1.9332; f = 946.0349328 lambda = 3.7372; f = 945.9993652 lambda = 7.2247; f = 945.9466025 lambda = 13.967; f = 945.9040562 Norm of dx 0.013291 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 56 = 0.175282994 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.9040561833 Predicted improvement: 0.057175680 lambda = 1; f = 945.8245621 Norm of dx 0.05765 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 57 = 0.079494122 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.8245620618 Predicted improvement: 0.021439851 lambda = 1; f = 945.7986112 Norm of dx 0.039795 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 58 = 0.025950820 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.7986112418 Predicted improvement: 0.005347181 lambda = 1; f = 945.7899394 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.7854368 Norm of dx 0.012036 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 59 = 0.013174435 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.7854368064 Predicted improvement: 0.007539771 lambda = 1; f = 945.7723294 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.7636228 lambda = 3.7372; f = 945.7563585 Norm of dx 0.010216 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 60 = 0.029078274 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.7563585319 Predicted improvement: 0.016151877 lambda = 1; f = 945.7257396 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.7002181 lambda = 3.7372; f = 945.6592579 lambda = 7.2247; f = 945.6115587 Norm of dx 0.0099422 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 61 = 0.144799831 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.6115587009 Predicted improvement: 0.070004940 lambda = 1; f = 945.5007095 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.4499508 Norm of dx 0.095139 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 62 = 0.161607878 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.4499508227 Predicted improvement: 0.027120989 lambda = 1; f = 945.4184550 Norm of dx 0.06332 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 63 = 0.031495786 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.4184550366 Predicted improvement: 0.002786158 lambda = 1; f = 945.4144313 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.4134390 Norm of dx 0.0089056 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 64 = 0.005016029 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.4134390075 Predicted improvement: 0.002070924 lambda = 1; f = 945.4093994 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.4058214 lambda = 3.7372; f = 945.3994303 lambda = 7.2247; f = 945.3890473 lambda = 13.967; f = 945.3764018 Norm of dx 0.0018517 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 65 = 0.037037241 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.3764017661 Predicted improvement: 0.032052079 lambda = 1; f = 945.3214622 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.2871841 lambda = 3.7372; f = 945.2698405 Norm of dx 0.032989 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 66 = 0.106561256 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.2698405103 Predicted improvement: 0.050814030 lambda = 1; f = 945.2013315 Norm of dx 0.072677 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 67 = 0.068509036 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.2013314739 Predicted improvement: 0.016912358 lambda = 1; f = 945.1825582 Norm of dx 0.043707 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 68 = 0.018773241 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.1825582325 Predicted improvement: 0.002249022 lambda = 1; f = 945.1785724 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.1757398 lambda = 3.7372; f = 945.1725871 Norm of dx 0.0086957 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 69 = 0.009971157 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.1725870751 Predicted improvement: 0.007038124 lambda = 1; f = 945.1595476 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.1491834 lambda = 3.7372; f = 945.1339586 lambda = 7.2247; f = 945.1218877 Norm of dx 0.0093102 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 70 = 0.050699412 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.1218876629 Predicted improvement: 0.021471690 lambda = 1; f = 945.0854298 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.0632377 lambda = 3.7372; f = 945.0534412 Norm of dx 0.019214 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 71 = 0.068446442 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.0534412213 Predicted improvement: 0.010471695 lambda = 1; f = 945.0417351 Norm of dx 0.024158 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 72 = 0.011706169 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.0417350520 Predicted improvement: 0.001025715 lambda = 1; f = 945.0403215 Norm of dx 0.0056851 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 73 = 0.001413589 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.0403214628 Predicted improvement: 0.000906305 lambda = 1; f = 945.0388278 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.0380124 Norm of dx 0.0051039 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 74 = 0.002309104 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.0380123587 Predicted improvement: 0.001889929 lambda = 1; f = 945.0345815 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.0320051 lambda = 3.7372; f = 945.0287337 Norm of dx 0.0078481 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 75 = 0.009278688 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.0287336704 Predicted improvement: 0.007622400 lambda = 1; f = 945.0160031 lambda = 1.9332; f = 945.0086586 Norm of dx 0.015741 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 76 = 0.020075091 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 945.0086585795 Predicted improvement: 0.008431248 lambda = 1; f = 944.9983457 Norm of dx 0.01032 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 77 = 0.010312896 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.9983456830 Predicted improvement: 0.001060750 lambda = 1; f = 944.9971343 Norm of dx 0.010261 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 78 = 0.001211390 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.9971342928 Predicted improvement: 0.000131111 lambda = 1; f = 944.9969106 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.9967701 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.9966853 Norm of dx 0.0025847 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 79 = 0.000448992 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.9966853012 Predicted improvement: 0.000307254 lambda = 1; f = 944.9960808 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.9955377 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.9945454 lambda = 7.2247; f = 944.9928431 lambda = 13.967; f = 944.9903630 lambda = 27; f = 944.9886271 Norm of dx 0.0012133 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 80 = 0.008058187 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.9886271142 Predicted improvement: 0.004884813 lambda = 1; f = 944.9804833 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.9758226 Norm of dx 0.010215 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 81 = 0.012804521 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.9758225928 Predicted improvement: 0.004403893 lambda = 1; f = 944.9706922 Norm of dx 0.015014 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 82 = 0.005130344 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.9706922485 Predicted improvement: 0.000779711 lambda = 1; f = 944.9694006 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.9686898 Norm of dx 0.0057422 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 83 = 0.002002438 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.9686898105 Predicted improvement: 0.001490260 lambda = 1; f = 944.9659838 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.9639597 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.9614130 Norm of dx 0.0074882 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 84 = 0.007276810 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.9614130005 Predicted improvement: 0.006849836 lambda = 1; f = 944.9486963 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.9385877 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.9238182 lambda = 7.2247; f = 944.9128757 Norm of dx 0.024379 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 85 = 0.048537296 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.9128757045 Predicted improvement: 0.031064750 lambda = 1; f = 944.8574632 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.8177979 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.7742504 Norm of dx 0.054631 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 86 = 0.138625277 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.7742504272 Predicted improvement: 0.011100989 lambda = 1; f = 944.7611652 Norm of dx 0.066615 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 87 = 0.013085245 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.7611651819 Predicted improvement: 0.002122198 lambda = 1; f = 944.7578195 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.7563182 Norm of dx 0.017597 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 88 = 0.004846947 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.7563182353 Predicted improvement: 0.002591733 lambda = 1; f = 944.7514209 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.7473763 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.7410028 lambda = 7.2247; f = 944.7341326 Norm of dx 0.007463 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 89 = 0.022185592 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.7341326430 Predicted improvement: 0.018824908 lambda = 1; f = 944.6990016 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.6707719 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.6286976 lambda = 7.2247; f = 944.5943324 Norm of dx 0.045005 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 90 = 0.139800292 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5943323513 Predicted improvement: 0.042946677 lambda = 1; f = 944.5362242 Norm of dx 0.08184 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 91 = 0.058108182 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5362241690 Predicted improvement: 0.009618926 lambda = 1; f = 944.5263612 Norm of dx 0.049047 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 92 = 0.009863018 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5263611505 Predicted improvement: 0.000087209 lambda = 1; f = 944.5262708 Norm of dx 0.0018082 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 93 = 0.000090377 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5262707735 Predicted improvement: 0.000012009 lambda = 1; f = 944.5262541 Norm of dx 0.00072501 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 94 = 0.000016662 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5262541117 Predicted improvement: 0.000018557 lambda = 1; f = 944.5262250 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.5262098 Norm of dx 0.00064793 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 95 = 0.000044282 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5262098297 Predicted improvement: 0.000036879 lambda = 1; f = 944.5261434 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.5260926 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.5260252 Norm of dx 0.00058501 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 96 = 0.000184663 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5260251663 Predicted improvement: 0.000169891 lambda = 1; f = 944.5257479 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.5255998 Norm of dx 0.0015079 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 97 = 0.000425361 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5255998049 Predicted improvement: 0.000157181 lambda = 1; f = 944.5253955 Norm of dx 0.002381 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 98 = 0.000204273 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5253955315 Predicted improvement: 0.000025819 lambda = 1; f = 944.5253658 Norm of dx 0.0012112 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 99 = 0.000029705 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5253658261 Predicted improvement: 0.000000386 lambda = 1; f = 944.5253650 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.5253646 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.5253649 Norm of dx 8.757e-005 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 100 = 0.000001191 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5253646351 Predicted improvement: 0.000000287 lambda = 1; f = 944.5253641 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.5253636 lambda = 3.7372; f = 944.5253627 lambda = 7.2247; f = 944.5253610 lambda = 13.967; f = 944.5253584 lambda = 27; f = 944.5253555 Norm of dx 2.0861e-005 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 101 = 0.000009086 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5253555496 Predicted improvement: 0.000005540 lambda = 1; f = 944.5253467 lambda = 1.9332; f = 944.5253435 Norm of dx 0.00038001 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 102 = 0.000012015 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5253435350 Predicted improvement: 0.000001124 lambda = 1; f = 944.5253422 Norm of dx 0.0005034 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 103 = 0.000001359 ----------------- ----------------- f at the beginning of new iteration, 944.5253421757 Predicted improvement: 0.000000095 lambda = 1; f = 944.5253421 lambda = 0.33333; f = 944.5253421 Norm of dx 7.2742e-005 ih = 1 ---- Improvement on iteration 104 = 0.000000053 improvement < crit termination Objective function at mode: 944.525342 Objective function at mode: 944.525342 RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR MAXIMIZATION parameters prior mean mode s.d. t-stat prior pstdev crhoa 0.500 0.9418 0.0176 53.4188 beta 0.2000 crhob 0.500 0.3204 0.1200 2.6709 beta 0.2000 crhog 0.500 0.9787 0.0088 111.0668 beta 0.2000 crhoqs 0.500 0.7984 0.0475 16.8263 beta 0.2000 crhoms 0.500 0.1510 0.0673 2.2443 beta 0.2000 crhopinf 0.500 0.8976 0.0424 21.1623 beta 0.2000 crhow 0.500 0.9537 0.0202 47.1661 beta 0.2000 cmap 0.500 0.7602 0.0787 9.6602 beta 0.2000 cmaw 0.500 0.9051 0.0377 23.9956 beta 0.2000 csadjcost 4.000 5.2568 1.0464 5.0237 norm 1.5000 csigma 1.500 1.3725 0.1586 8.6533 norm 0.3750 chabb 0.700 0.6821 0.0502 13.6005 beta 0.1000 cprobw 0.500 0.8358 0.0432 19.3501 beta 0.1000 csigl 2.000 2.2055 0.5918 3.7270 norm 0.7500 cprobp 0.500 0.7037 0.0456 15.4166 beta 0.1000 cindw 0.500 0.4372 0.1288 3.3940 beta 0.1500 cindp 0.500 0.2185 0.0863 2.5316 beta 0.1500 czcap 0.500 0.6472 0.1150 5.6268 beta 0.1500 cfc 1.250 1.5854 0.0760 20.8709 norm 0.1250 crpi 1.500 1.8513 0.1814 10.2029 norm 0.2500 crr 0.750 0.8135 0.0256 31.7624 beta 0.1000 cry 0.125 0.0634 0.0221 2.8659 norm 0.0500 crdy 0.125 0.2252 0.0258 8.7356 norm 0.0500 constepinf 0.625 0.8052 0.1021 7.8899 gamm 0.1000 constebeta 0.250 0.1325 0.0523 2.5314 gamm 0.1000 constelab 0.000 -0.2457 1.0873 0.2260 norm 2.0000 ctrend 0.400 0.4120 0.0134 30.6769 norm 0.1000 cgy 0.500 0.5596 0.0835 6.7003 norm 0.2500 calfa 0.300 0.1793 0.0161 11.1227 norm 0.0500 standard deviation of shocks prior mean mode s.d. t-stat prior pstdev ea 0.100 0.4527 0.0261 17.3272 invg 2.0000 eb 0.100 0.2244 0.0294 7.6362 invg 2.0000 eg 0.100 0.5097 0.0279 18.2884 invg 2.0000 eqs 0.100 0.4209 0.0464 9.0806 invg 2.0000 em 0.100 0.2307 0.0135 17.1177 invg 2.0000 epinf 0.100 0.1438 0.0157 9.1497 invg 2.0000 ew 0.100 0.2314 0.0206 11.2264 invg 2.0000 Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -1026.729277. MODEL SUMMARY Number of variables: 40 Number of stochastic shocks: 7 Number of state variables: 20 Number of jumpers: 12 Number of static variables: 14 MATRIX OF COVARIANCE OF EXOGENOUS SHOCKS Variables ea eb eg em epinf eqs ew ea 0.204923 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 eb 0.000000 0.050336 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 eg 0.000000 0.000000 0.259793 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 em 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.053213 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 epinf 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.020682 0.000000 0.000000 eqs 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.177190 0.000000 ew 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.053530 POLICY AND TRANSITION FUNCTIONS dy pinfobs robs Constant 0.411981 0.805180 1.509903 a (-1) 0.199040 -0.116150 -0.170838 b (-1) 0.647307 0.021412 0.160820 epinfma(-1) 1.972124 -3.887293 -0.874527 ewma (-1) 2.768663 -6.270658 -1.508512 g (-1) 0.894559 0.023523 0.055501 kp (-1) -0.056773 -0.024648 -0.021966 kpf (-1) 0.018053 0.003711 -0.000593 ms (-1) -0.140272 -0.019184 0.111083 qs (-1) 0.549512 0.056769 0.059642 r (-1) -0.649770 -0.085083 0.630139 spinf (-1) -2.328685 4.590119 1.032642 sw (-1) -2.917237 6.607159 1.589462 y (-1) -0.820134 0.023552 -0.174432 yf (-1) -0.179866 -0.023552 0.174432 c (-1) 0.476179 0.009368 0.116101 cf (-1) 0.010707 -0.001861 -0.071710 inve (-1) 0.147035 0.003230 0.035966 invef (-1) 0.007976 0.000171 -0.021044 pinf (-1) -0.063430 0.228277 0.063771 w (-1) 0.012229 0.075579 0.028990 ea 0.722833 -0.109874 -0.149656 eb 2.020315 0.066830 0.501938 eg 0.914046 0.024036 0.056710 em -0.929240 -0.127084 0.735874 epinf -0.721850 1.704497 0.417329 eqs 0.688227 0.071099 0.074697 ew -0.132612 0.496101 0.139832 THEORETICAL MOMENTS VARIABLE MEAN STD. DEV. VARIANCE dy 0.4120 0.9564 0.9146 pinfobs 0.8052 0.5253 0.2759 robs 1.5099 0.6088 0.3706 VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION (in percent) ea eb eg eqs em epinf ew dy 13.90 25.03 25.01 18.12 8.02 4.40 5.53 pinfobs 4.58 0.66 1.36 3.98 3.55 33.23 52.65 robs 10.34 10.21 4.09 29.28 15.02 5.77 25.30 MATRIX OF CORRELATIONS Variables dy pinfobs robs dy 1.0000 -0.2172 -0.1465 pinfobs -0.2172 1.0000 0.6261 robs -0.1465 0.6261 1.0000 COEFFICIENTS OF AUTOCORRELATION Order 1 2 3 4 5 dy 0.3175 0.1835 0.1142 0.0707 0.0396 pinfobs 0.8253 0.7149 0.6267 0.5511 0.4851 robs 0.9108 0.8032 0.7046 0.6185 0.5437 >> who Your variables are: M_ constepinf ctou exe_det_ recurs_ Sigma_e_ conster ctrend exo_det_nbr robs_ea calfa cpie curvp exo_nbr robs_eb cbeta cprobp curvw fname_ robs_eg cbetabar cprobw cw gstep_ robs_em ccs cr cwhlc info robs_epinf ccy crdpi cwly iter_ robs_eqs cfc crdy czcap iy_ robs_ew cg crhoa dr_ lgr_ rplottype_ cgamma crhoas dsmpl_ lgx_ scalv_ cgy crhob dy_ea lgx_det_ slowc_ chabb crhog dy_eb lgx_orig_ord_ temp cik crhols dy_eg lgy_ timing_ cikbar crhoms dy_em logname_ trend_coeff_ cindp crhopinf dy_epinf maxit_ valf_ cindw crhoqs dy_eqs oo_ var_list_ cinvs crhow dy_ew options_ xkmax_ ciy crk dynatol_ pinfobs_ea xkmin_ cky crkky eigenvalues_ pinfobs_eb y_ clandap crpi endo_nbr pinfobs_eg ykmax_ clandaw crr endval_ pinfobs_em ykmin_ clk cry estim_params_ pinfobs_epinf ys0_ cmap csadjcost ex0_ pinfobs_eqs ys_ cmaw csigl ex_ pinfobs_ew zkmax_ constebeta csigma ex_det_ recur_ zkmin_ constelab ct_ exe_ recurs0_ >> dy ??? Undefined function or variable 'dy'. >> varob ??? Undefined function or variable 'varob'. >> varobs ??? Undefined function or variable 'varobs'. >> varobs ??? Undefined function or variable 'varobs'. >> dy_ea dy_ea = 0.3272 0.0787 0.0612 0.0444 0.0299 0.0182 0.0089 0.0015 -0.0041 -0.0085 -0.0118 -0.0144 -0.0162 -0.0175 -0.0184 -0.0189 -0.0191 -0.0191 -0.0190 -0.0186 >> who Your variables are: M_ constepinf ctou exe_det_ recurs_ Sigma_e_ conster ctrend exo_det_nbr robs_ea calfa cpie curvp exo_nbr robs_eb cbeta cprobp curvw fname_ robs_eg cbetabar cprobw cw gstep_ robs_em ccs cr cwhlc info robs_epinf ccy crdpi cwly iter_ robs_eqs cfc crdy czcap iy_ robs_ew cg crhoa dr_ lgr_ rplottype_ cgamma crhoas dsmpl_ lgx_ scalv_ cgy crhob dy_ea lgx_det_ slowc_ chabb crhog dy_eb lgx_orig_ord_ temp cik crhols dy_eg lgy_ timing_ cikbar crhoms dy_em logname_ trend_coeff_ cindp crhopinf dy_epinf maxit_ valf_ cindw crhoqs dy_eqs oo_ var_list_ cinvs crhow dy_ew options_ xkmax_ ciy crk dynatol_ pinfobs_ea xkmin_ cky crkky eigenvalues_ pinfobs_eb y_ clandap crpi endo_nbr pinfobs_eg ykmax_ clandaw crr endval_ pinfobs_em ykmin_ clk cry estim_params_ pinfobs_epinf ys0_ cmap csadjcost ex0_ pinfobs_eqs ys_ cmaw csigl ex_ pinfobs_ew zkmax_ constebeta csigma ex_det_ recur_ zkmin_ constelab ct_ exe_ recurs0_