I am now writing a dynare code for a deterministic simulation. Suppose there is a shock on an exogenous variable, starting from the old SS, rising at constant speed for 10 periods to the new SS, then stay there for ever.
when I set up the path for shocks, should I let the first shock happen at period (0:1) or (1:2)? If I let the first shock happen at period (0:1), is that shock still perfectly anticipated? Or is that a surprise to the economy?
Thank you very much!