Error in conditional forecast after estimation

Dear all,

I was trying to do a conditional forecast after doing an estimation of the model by setting a conditional forecast path for endogenous variable.

I used this part of the code to do conditional forecast:

var shock_p_o;
periods 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8;
values 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.95 0.96;

conditional_forecast(parameter_set=calibration, periods = 8, controlled_varexo=(epsilon_shock_p_o));

However, after running my code I got the following error message: “conditional_forecasts: controlling of variables was not successful.
This can be due to numerical imprecision (e.g. explosive simulations)
or because the instrument(s) do not allow controlling the variable(s).”

Any ideas on why I got this message and whether the results of the forecasting are still reliable?

Thank you for your help in advance!


No, results are not reliable. The message appears when your simulation does not achieve the desired path. Could you please provide me with the file in question.

Dear Professor Pfeifer,

Thank you for your reply!
The code is attached. This is just a simple RBC model which I used to see how it works to later use the forecasting in a little bit bigger model. Just in case, I use dynare 4.6.0 and Matlab 2019bRBCexample.mod (2.2 KB)

Thank you once again for your help!

Thanks for pointing this out. Your model is fine, but the check has a bug. See