# Perfect foresight simulations **URL:** https://forum.dynare.org/c/perfectforesight/15.md [Latest](https://forum.dynare.org/latest.md) · [Categories](https://forum.dynare.org/categories.md) --- ## [About the Perfect foresight simulations category](https://forum.dynare.org/t/about-the-perfect-foresight-simulations-category/10424)
**Author:** [@jpfeifer](https://forum.dynare.org/u/jpfeifer)\ **Replies:** 0
Questions related to perfect foresight simulations (simul, perfect\_foresight\_solver, extended\_path) --- ## [Shocking growth rate of the process, perfect foresight](https://forum.dynare.org/t/shocking-growth-rate-of-the-process-perfect-foresight/28410)
**Author:** [@kurama](https://forum.dynare.org/u/kurama)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [15 June 2026 15:36 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/shocking-growth-rate-of-the-process-perfect-foresight/28410 "2026-06-15T15:36:35Z")
When I run this code and shock pop growth rate it never returns back. Does anyone know WHY? var POP ; // ratio variables (derived) varexo eps\_pop ; parameters g\_pop rho\_pop; g\_pop = 0.0015; rho\_pop = 0.9; model; … --- ## [Evolution of substitution elasticities](https://forum.dynare.org/t/evolution-of-substitution-elasticities/28340)
**Author:** [@hipa](https://forum.dynare.org/u/hipa)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [15 April 2026 08:14 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/evolution-of-substitution-elasticities/28340 "2026-04-15T08:14:17Z")
Good afternoon, I am running my model while making the substitution elasticity of a CES nest evolve during 25 years (to reflect structural changes). I do not change the distribution parameters (those are computed at ste… --- ## [Perfect foresight estimation with histval](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-estimation-with-histval/28317)
**Author:** [@ani.98](https://forum.dynare.org/u/ani.98)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [23 March 2026 21:54 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-estimation-with-histval/28317 "2026-03-23T21:54:48Z")
Hi everyone, I am trying to create simulations with perfect foresight by giving initial values to the state variables in histval. Unfortunately when I provide values to some state variable either I get homotopy issue or … --- ## [State variables in histval](https://forum.dynare.org/t/state-variables-in-histval/28267)
**Author:** [@ani.98](https://forum.dynare.org/u/ani.98)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [10 March 2026 07:52 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/state-variables-in-histval/28267 "2026-03-10T07:52:18Z")
Hi everyone, I am solving the model running perfect foresight, and I want to figure out the reduced form and see the state variables in order to specify their initial values in histval block and create a scenario with th… --- ## [Perfect foresight simulation of fiscal consolidation without fiscal rule](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-simulation-of-fiscal-consolidation-without-fiscal-rule/28275)
**Author:** [@Sarv1926](https://forum.dynare.org/u/Sarv1926)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [3 March 2026 14:33 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-simulation-of-fiscal-consolidation-without-fiscal-rule/28275 "2026-03-03T14:33:27Z")
Dear all, I have a question about running perfect foresight simulations in Dynare when studying a fiscal consolidation that is implemented via an exogenous shock path rather than through a fiscal feedback rule. In my s… --- ## [Delayed reaction](https://forum.dynare.org/t/delayed-reaction/28299)
**Author:** [@ani.98](https://forum.dynare.org/u/ani.98)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [3 March 2026 10:54 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/delayed-reaction/28299 "2026-03-03T10:54:32Z")
Hi everyone, I am trying to simulate delayed policy response using Taylor rule (and also loss function in different case of model) .And the goal is to show that in case of the delayed reaction I need to react much more a… --- ## [permanent and gradual increase in tax variable](https://forum.dynare.org/t/permanent-and-gradual-increase-in-tax-variable/28252)
**Author:** [@william1](https://forum.dynare.org/u/william1)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [15 February 2026 14:52 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/permanent-and-gradual-increase-in-tax-variable/28252 "2026-02-15T14:52:13Z")
I’m making a two household two sector model, which aims to simulate a consumption tax on the first good where the revenue is used to subsidize the other good. My issue is that I do not know how to code a permanent increa… --- ## [Solving the transition path of bank runs](https://forum.dynare.org/t/solving-the-transition-path-of-bank-runs/28154)
**Author:** [@WeiJunlong](https://forum.dynare.org/u/WeiJunlong)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [4 January 2026 04:30 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/solving-the-transition-path-of-bank-runs/28154 "2026-01-04T04:30:01Z")
Hello everyone, I’m a graduate student still in the early stages of my studies. I’ve encountered some issues while attempting to reproduce Miao(2023)'s research code on bank runs. Currently, I’ve simplified the model to … --- ## [Perfect Foresight Simulation Settings](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-simulation-settings/28147)
**Author:** [@Pang1](https://forum.dynare.org/u/Pang1)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [27 December 2025 07:11 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-simulation-settings/28147 "2025-12-27T07:11:21Z")
I am trying to simulate the growth paths of variables under different policy scenarios. In Scenario 1, I introduced a technology progress shock; in Scenario 2, I added the growth of power transmission efficiency (tau) on… --- ## [Parameter Updating Transition Permanent Shock](https://forum.dynare.org/t/parameter-updating-transition-permanent-shock/28096)
**Author:** [@JanAegten](https://forum.dynare.org/u/JanAegten)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [27 November 2025 16:36 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/parameter-updating-transition-permanent-shock/28096 "2025-11-27T16:36:37Z")
Hi Dynare Community, I am running a PF simulation where I have a permanent shock that affects e.g. productivity. The model is a closed economy New Keynesian model that features households (HH), production firms, financi… --- ## [Ramsey\_model with inequality constraints gives wrong results?](https://forum.dynare.org/t/ramsey-model-with-inequality-constraints-gives-wrong-results/28067)
**Author:** [@saduineveld](https://forum.dynare.org/u/saduineveld)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [4 November 2025 15:38 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/ramsey-model-with-inequality-constraints-gives-wrong-results/28067 "2025-11-04T15:38:14Z")
First I have 2 questions; should Dynare be able to solve the ramsey\_model when there is an inequality constraint in the model (ie. the behaviour of the agents)? If it can, should this work with the perfect\_forsight… --- ## [Shocks in Deterministic Context](https://forum.dynare.org/t/shocks-in-deterministic-context/28036)
**Author:** [@August](https://forum.dynare.org/u/August)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [20 October 2025 09:58 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/shocks-in-deterministic-context/28036 "2025-10-20T09:58:14Z")
Hi everyone, In the manual, we have a code example like this: xx = \[1.2; 1.3; 1\]; shocks; var e; periods 1:3; values (xx); end; Does this mean that agents know the entire future path of e period 1, or does it imp… --- ## [Kamal Hinduja :What’s the recommended way to debug B-K condition violations in Dynare 6.2?](https://forum.dynare.org/t/kamal-hinduja-what-s-the-recommended-way-to-debug-b-k-condition-violations-in-dynare-6-2/27684)
**Author:** [@kamalhinduja](https://forum.dynare.org/u/kamalhinduja)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [3 October 2025 06:40 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/kamal-hinduja-what-s-the-recommended-way-to-debug-b-k-condition-violations-in-dynare-6-2/27684 "2025-10-03T06:40:50Z")
Hi, I’m Kamal Hinduja from Geneva, Switzerland. I’m new to this community and excited to contribute positively to the discussions while learning from everyone’s insights. Can you suggest What’s the recommended way to … --- ## [Continue where left off in perfect foresight simulation](https://forum.dynare.org/t/continue-where-left-off-in-perfect-foresight-simulation/28000)
**Author:** [@schoderch](https://forum.dynare.org/u/schoderch)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [28 September 2025 17:38 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/continue-where-left-off-in-perfect-foresight-simulation/28000 "2025-09-28T17:38:05Z")
Dear team, I’m running a perfect foresight simulation in a large-scale model with many shocks. Since the solver converges only with fairly close initial values, the work-flow is very path dependent. My issue is related… --- ## [Option endval\_steady in perfect\_foresight\_setup command](https://forum.dynare.org/t/option-endval-steady-in-perfect-foresight-setup-command/27989)
**Author:** [@schoderch](https://forum.dynare.org/u/schoderch)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [22 September 2025 19:27 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/option-endval-steady-in-perfect-foresight-setup-command/27989 "2025-09-22T19:27:46Z")
Dear team, Since Dynare 6 there is an option endval\_steady in the perfect\_foresight\_setup command. It uses the homotopy method to jointly find the terminal steady state and the corresponding perfect foresight solution. … --- ## [Dynare 6.2"Could not normalize the dynamic model."](https://forum.dynare.org/t/dynare-6-2-could-not-normalize-the-dynamic-model/27887)
**Author:** [@Jingjing](https://forum.dynare.org/u/Jingjing)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [14 August 2025 13:12 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/dynare-6-2-could-not-normalize-the-dynamic-model/27887 "2025-08-14T13:12:46Z")
I’ve been working in Dynare 6.2, and an error keeps poping up. Normalization failed with cutoff, trying symbolic normalization... Could not normalize the dynamic model. Variable I\_k is not in the maximum cardinality ma… --- ## [Strange dynamics in perfect foresight setup](https://forum.dynare.org/t/strange-dynamics-in-perfect-foresight-setup/27847)
**Author:** [@Random.t](https://forum.dynare.org/u/Random.t)\ **Replies:** 7\ **Last updated:** [20 August 2025 12:32 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/strange-dynamics-in-perfect-foresight-setup/27847 "2025-08-20T12:32:44Z")
Hi everybody, I am simulating the transition from a steady state with no tax on emissions to a steady state with positive tax in a e-dsge model. Some trajectories exhibit quite strange behaviour (e.g nominal rate, infl… --- ## [Debt timing and Unexpected Jump in t+1 in a General Equilibrium Model](https://forum.dynare.org/t/debt-timing-and-unexpected-jump-in-t-1-in-a-general-equilibrium-model/27682)
**Author:** [@nparis](https://forum.dynare.org/u/nparis)\ **Replies:** 9\ **Last updated:** [22 July 2025 07:55 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/debt-timing-and-unexpected-jump-in-t-1-in-a-general-equilibrium-model/27682 "2025-07-22T07:55:28Z")
Hi everyone, I’m currently working on a model I referred to in a previous post on the forum. I’m having trouble understanding the behavior of debt in my model. Assuming both worker types have similar productivity init… --- ## [Sequence of Shocks perfect foresight](https://forum.dynare.org/t/sequence-of-shocks-perfect-foresight/27733)
**Author:** [@Random.t](https://forum.dynare.org/u/Random.t)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [26 June 2025 07:15 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/sequence-of-shocks-perfect-foresight/27733 "2025-06-26T07:15:16Z")
Hi everybody, I am simulating the perfect foresight response of the economy to an anticipated carbon tax in Dynare. The issue is that if I set the carbon tax value in the endval block, the tax assumes the ‘endval;’ val… --- ## [Question about simulated trajectory](https://forum.dynare.org/t/question-about-simulated-trajectory/27720)
**Author:** [@Zwq](https://forum.dynare.org/u/Zwq)\ **Replies:** 7\ **Last updated:** [21 June 2025 13:57 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/question-about-simulated-trajectory/27720 "2025-06-21T13:57:56Z")
Hi professor, I’m doing deterministic simulation using perfect foresight model,there is a permanent unexpected shock . the simulated trajectory of capital consumption and output are below: When I do not use dsamp… --- ## [The result of deterministic simulation is divergent](https://forum.dynare.org/t/the-result-of-deterministic-simulation-is-divergent/27666)
**Author:** [@pei](https://forum.dynare.org/u/pei)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [2 June 2025 10:43 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/the-result-of-deterministic-simulation-is-divergent/27666 "2025-06-02T10:43:11Z")
Dear all, I am trying to solve perfect foresight model, the shock happens just in the first period, but the result of output (y) goes quite strange, it becomes very large as time goes by, could anyone helps me? Thanks! a… --- ## [Wage overshooting after labor force increase in a search and matching model](https://forum.dynare.org/t/wage-overshooting-after-labor-force-increase-in-a-search-and-matching-model/27654)
**Author:** [@nparis](https://forum.dynare.org/u/nparis)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [29 May 2025 17:52 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/wage-overshooting-after-labor-force-increase-in-a-search-and-matching-model/27654 "2025-05-29T17:52:46Z")
Hi everyone, I’m working on a general equilibrium model with search and matching, featuring two types of workers. I’m solving the model under perfect foresight. I’m analyzing what happens when there is an exogenous inc… --- ## [Dynare Model Error - Complex Numbers and Singular Matrix in Perfect Foresight Solver](https://forum.dynare.org/t/dynare-model-error-complex-numbers-and-singular-matrix-in-perfect-foresight-solver/27611)
**Author:** [@yure](https://forum.dynare.org/u/yure)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [20 May 2025 05:55 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/dynare-model-error-complex-numbers-and-singular-matrix-in-perfect-foresight-solver/27611 "2025-05-20T05:55:34Z")
transition0519.mod (11.0 KB) Hi Dynare Community, I’m struggling with a perfect foresight model simulation that fails due to multiple critical issues. Here are the key symptoms from the latest logs: ​​Key Errors​​ ​​… --- ## [Perfect foresight implementation NK model (Bilbiie & Melitz, 2023)](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-implementation-nk-model-bilbiie-melitz-2023/27545)
**Author:** [@Dagz](https://forum.dynare.org/u/Dagz)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [16 May 2025 19:26 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-implementation-nk-model-bilbiie-melitz-2023/27545 "2025-05-16T19:26:58Z")
Hello everyone, I am trying to implement forward guidance into the Entry-Exit NK model by Bilbiie & Melitz (2023). While I managed to replicate the model on Dynare using their Loglinearized equations, I am struggling t… --- ## [Steady state failed. How to fix?](https://forum.dynare.org/t/steady-state-failed-how-to-fix/27552)
**Author:** [@HvamGod](https://forum.dynare.org/u/HvamGod)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [9 May 2025 20:22 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/steady-state-failed-how-to-fix/27552 "2025-05-09T20:22:35Z")
Hello Dynare Forum, I am new to dynare/Matlab and are struggeling a bit to find a steady state solution in one of my .mod files. What is the standard approach to solve this? Namely it is in the file “fixedmundtlig.mod”. … --- ## [Timing and shock implementation under perfect foresight in search-and-matching model](https://forum.dynare.org/t/timing-and-shock-implementation-under-perfect-foresight-in-search-and-matching-model/27538)
**Author:** [@nparis](https://forum.dynare.org/u/nparis)\ **Replies:** 10\ **Last updated:** [8 May 2025 20:08 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/timing-and-shock-implementation-under-perfect-foresight-in-search-and-matching-model/27538 "2025-05-08T20:08:43Z")
Hello, I’m working with a search-and-matching model that includes output production using capital. My goal is to understand the transition dynamics between two steady states after a labor force shock, using Dynare’s per… --- ## [Perfect foresight simulation with initial values off steady state](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-simulation-with-initial-values-off-steady-state/27527)
**Author:** [@Argyn](https://forum.dynare.org/u/Argyn)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [6 May 2025 05:53 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/perfect-foresight-simulation-with-initial-values-off-steady-state/27527 "2025-05-06T05:53:21Z")
Hello everyone, I am trying to simulate the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model (deterministic) starting from initial values that off the steady state to see a path of convergence. However, I am getting the paths for k and c wit… --- ## [Can we improve getPowerDeriv.m?](https://forum.dynare.org/t/can-we-improve-getpowerderiv-m/27528)
**Author:** [@prometheu](https://forum.dynare.org/u/prometheu)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [4 May 2025 14:32 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/can-we-improve-getpowerderiv-m/27528 "2025-05-04T14:32:01Z")
I am running a loop of deterministic simulation using perfect\_foresight\_solver.m. The total running time is about 6 hours, and the profiler tells me that a single funcion getPowerDeriv.m uses about half of the total time… --- ## [60 period OLG, too few equations problem](https://forum.dynare.org/t/60-period-olg-too-few-equations-problem/12262)
**Author:** [@fpapasavvas](https://forum.dynare.org/u/fpapasavvas)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [28 April 2025 07:38 UTC](https://forum.dynare.org/t/60-period-olg-too-few-equations-problem/12262 "2025-04-28T07:38:20Z")
Hi! I am starting to run a 60-period 0LG model with endogenous working hours and bequests. The code was running correctly until I made working hours (n) endogenous, and I get the error: ERROR: There are 165 equations bu… [Next page](https://forum.dynare.org/c/perfectforesight/15.md?page=1)